Pierre Bessemoulin President, WMO Commission for Climatology Workshop “Extremes in a changing Climate” De Bilt, The Ne

1. WMO/CCl perspectives for ETCCDI Pierre Bessemoulin President, WMO Commission for ClimatologyWorkshop “Extremes in a changing Climate” De Bilt, The Netherlands, 13-16 May 2008

2. Monitoring climate extremes The WMO authoritative statement on the state of the climate: An insight into the global and regional Variability, Trends and Extreme climate events around the world Heat wave in western Europe 2003 Major climatic events in 2005 2005 the second warmest on record Major hurricanes, droughts and floods

3. ETCCDI TERMS OF REFERENCE(Mandate given by WMO Members at CCl-14, Beijing, Nov. 2005) 1. To provide international coordination and help organize collaboration on climate change detection and indices relevant to climate change detection; 2. To further develop and publicize indices and indicators of climate variability and change from the surface and sub-surface ocean to the stratosphere; 3. To encourage the comparison of modelled data and observations perhaps via the development of indices appropriate for both sources of information; 4. To coordinate these and other relevant activities the ET chooses to engage in (such as perhaps observing system experiments that help determine where observations are needed for climate change detection) with other appropriate agencies such as GCOS, CBS, CIMO, CAgM, CHy, IPCC, START etc. as well with the joint WCRP JSC/CLIVAR Working Group on Coupled Modelling, the WCRP Observations and Assimilation Panel, and Regional Associations; 5. To explore, document and make recommendations for addressing the needs for capacity building in each region, pertinent to this topic; 6. To submit reports in accordance with timetables established by the OPAG chair and/or Management Group.

4. ETCCDI WORKPLAN:ACTIONS TIMEFRAME TOCOMPLETE ACTIONS • The Work plan was discussed and developed during the ETCCDI (CCl ET2.1) meeting; Niagara-on-the Lake, Canada, 14-16 November 2006 (WCDMP No. 64) , and considered the above-mentionned needs • List of actions and deadlines pp 1-2 in Meeting Report available at http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/48583/01/115_etccdi2.pdf • Contribution to IPCC ARs, especially using Regional workshops outcomes

5. Indices development and analysis tools • User friendly workshop software written by Xuebin Zhang of Environment Canada • Uses the free statistical package “R” • Does QC, homogeneity testing, and creates 27 different indices • Produces a variety of high quality graphs • Available from: http://cccma.seos.uvic.ca/ETCCDMI/ • Software user guide available in English and Spanish (translated by Jose Luis Santos of Ecuador)

6. THE WMO/MEDARE INITIATIVE (I) LONG TERM MEDARE’s GOAL IS: TO DEVELOP A HIGH QUALITY INSTRUMENTAL CLIMATE DATASET FOR THE GREATER MEDITERRANEAN REGION (GMR) HOW ? • SEEKING AND MOBILIZING RESOURCES AT NATIONAL, REGIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL LEVELS • UNDERTAKING SPECIFIC DATA RESCUE (DARE) PROJECTS IN A COLLABORATIVE FUNDING CONTEXT • DEVELOPING A WEB-BASED DATA AND METADATA EXCHANGE INFRASTRUCTURE • TRAINING YOUNG SCIENTISTS IN DARE TECHNIQUES AND PROCEDURES • RAISING AWARENESS AMONGST NMHS MANAGERS AND STAFF, STAKEHOLDERS, POLICY-MAKERS, SOCIAL AGENTS AND SOCIETY • CAPACITY BUILDING OVER MED LDCs AND DCs

7. THE WMO/MEDARE INITIATIVE (II) http://www.omm.urv.cat/MEDARE/index.html WHO ? NMHSS, UNIVERSITIES, CLIMATE INSTITUTIONS, INTERNATIONAL DATA ARCHIVING CENTRES, INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE DATA PROJECTS AND NETWORKS THE KEY ELEMENTS IN THIS ENTERPRISE ARE COLLABORATION, PARTNERSHIP, INFORMATION SHARING, MULTILATERAL PROJECTS, NETWORKING AND WE ARE ORGANISED THROUGH WG1 ON OLD MATERIAL SOURCES AND HOLDERS. WG2 ON DARE TECHNIQUES AND PROCEDURES (INCLUDING DIGITIZATION). WG3 ON QUALITY CONTROLLING AND HOMOGENIZING SPECIFIC CLIMATE VARIABLES. WG4 PROMOTIONAL ACTIVITIES WHAT WE NEED? RESOURCES, BOTH FINANCIAL AND HUMAN

8. MEDARE WEB PORTAL

9. Some Key issues for WMO and NMHSs • Observed and Validated Global and Continental extremes (http://wmo.asu.edu/), National climate extremes (NMHSs) • Impact of climate change on climate variability and extremes; projected future changes (long term trends) for adaptation purposes: • ECVs; sea level,… • Frequency and intensity of Events such as TCs, Extratropical cyclones, Convective storms, Coastal waves, Floods, Heat Waves, Cold spells, Drought, Growing season duration, …; • Storm tracks; ENSO and other oscillations; Weather types (e.g. blocking); Meridional overturning circulation; … • Return periods of Extremes for design and safety purposes e.g. of long-live infrastructure (NPPs, buildings, bridges, sewage systems, harbours,…) • The use of return periods of extreme values of hydro-meteorological parameters is very popular in a lot of countries (even written in law). However, current extreme values theories such as e.g. Gumbel approach, Generalized Extreme Values (GEV), Peaks Over Thresholds (POT), rely on the assumption of stationarity of climate. This is no longer the case for a number of meteorological or hydrological parameters.

10. Several studies point out that the change of extremes cannot be explained by a simple shift of the distribution but is also associated to an increase in its variability • Need for Climate Indices for characterizing extremes (including Ocean), which can be derived from both observations and climate models • The extreme values theory has been extended to non stationnary processes by some authors, e.g.: - Zwiers, F.W. and V.V. Kharin, 1998: Changes in the Extremes of the Climate Simulated by CCC GCM2 under CO2 Doubling, J. Climate, 2200-2222. - Kharin, V.V. and F.W. Zwiers, 2005: Estimating Extremes in Transient Climate Change Simulations. J. Climate, 18: 1156-1173. - Parey, S. F. Malek, C. Laurent and D. Dacunha-Castelle, 2007: Trends and climate evolution: statistical approach for very high temperatures in France. Climate Change, 81:331-352 ( making use of the POT model). • There is a clear need for a guidance document on the behaviour of extremes in a changing climate (e.g. return periods); T probably easier than RR.. - Planton, S. et al., 2008: Expected Impacts of Climate Change on Extreme Climate Events. Geosciences, under press. • Physical mechanisms of observed and predicted changes, and related uncertainties • Identify observations needs for climate change detection (e.g. quantifying distribution and extremes of snowfall and hailfall still a challenge) • Incentives to historical Data Rescue operations • Extremes in relation to impacts, e.g. : • Munich Ré: http://www.munichre.com/en/ts/geo_risks/default.aspx • CRED/EMDAT: http://www.emdat.be/

11. Climate extremesRisk management / Climate Watch • Climate watch: A warning advisory for a climate-related hazard which is likely to happen considering climate monitoring output and climate anomalies forecast, and first of all on its possible negative impacts (see WCDMP-No. 58, WMO-TD No. 1269) • Climate Watch includes a set of functions and responsibilities (who is doing what) • Climate Watch advisories are to be issued by NMHSs to their users (comparable to Weather Awareness Reports; see e.g. http://www.meteoalarm.eu/?areaname=&area=&ShowDate=&Country=&lang=EN ), together with indications about potential impacts and advices on how to behave.

12. European 2003 summer heat wave • Daily max > 40C Aug 5-13 in central/eastern France • Impacts include > 50,000 deaths all over Western Europe

13. Example: Return period of Summer Tm (°C) in France: - based on traditional approaches (Gumbel, GEV,…) : several thousand years - in late 21st century: several years White squares: observations Orange triangles: climate model outputs

14. WMO Restructuring: Historical Review • 2003: Cg-XIV approved the 6LTP and Budget on the basis of strategies, objectives and programmes; but it decided that WMO should start the transition to Result-based Management (RBM); • June 2005: EC-LVII approved the 2006-2007 budget in a result-based form; • June 2006: EC-LVIII decided on the results-based outline of the WMO Strategic Plan (SP) and results-based budget (RBB) and requested development of a WMO Operating Plan (WMO-OP) as link between SP and RBB; • The Secretariat developed the required documents during the 2nd half of 2006; • May 2007: Approval by Cg-XV of results-based SP and Budget

15. Four strategic planning documents WMO Strategic Plan - High-level statement of strategic directions and priorities through Top-level Objectives, Strategic Thrusts and Expected Results and Key Performance Indicators; /1/ WMO Operating Plan – Based on Programmes. Link between the SP and the RBB; it converts the ERs into specific deliverables, timelines, performance indicators and activities; /1/ Results-Based Budget(RBB) - connects the deliverables and activities to resources; /2/ WMO Monitoring & Performance Evaluation Plan – Tracks implementation and provides for control and corrective actions for achieving the ERs./3/ /1/http://www.wmo.int -> About us-> Strategic Planning /2/ Cg-XV/Doc 8.2, Res 35 (Cg-XV) and Res 23 (EC-LIX) /3/ Under development (see PTC-2008 agenda item 5.2)

16. 11 Expected Results and > 200 deliverables WMO Strategic Plan 3 Top-level Objectives 5 Strategic Thrusts

17. TCs contribution to WMO Operating Plans • ETCCDI contributing to ERs 2,7,8,9 • Current shortfall: the Regulation to distribute the Result-based Budget (RBB) to Members six months prior to the Congress meeting (i.e., Nov 2006) forced the parallel development of the Strategic Plan (SP), Operating Plan (OP)and RBB and did not allow sufficient time to collect inputs from the TCs and RAs. • Therefore next steps will include to: - Align by mid-2008 the existing (2008-2011) work plans (2012-2015) of the TCs and RAs to the ERs based on the Secretariat OP deliverables of the corresponding Programme(s); - Publish the WMO-OP 2010-2011 by end-2009 once validated by EC 61; - Consider the upcoming work plans (2012-2015) of the TCs and RAs at the very beginning of the development of a new process for next financial period 2012-2015; - Publish Final draft WMO-OP 2012-2015 by end-2009, then submitted to EC 62 for final approval.

18. Some vision elements • To agree on the importance of the CCl/Clivar/JCOMM ETCCDI work in advancing the knowledge, reducing the uncertainties and providing useful information on climate extremes; • To call on WMO and NMHSs to continue their support to ETCCDI work, in particular providing at least daily climate data; • To agree that research in climate extremes should be further mainstreamed into development issues such as Climate Risk Management (CRM) and Climate Change Adaptation (CCA); • To consider new ways in improving and /or establishing linkages between research work on climate extremes and the operational work undertaken under WMO programmes, in particular Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR), WCDMP (Data & Monitoring), and WCASP (Applications and Services). This task includes climate information provision to end users by the NMHSs and the Regional Climate Centres, delivered at events and workshops such as the Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs) and the Regional Climate Watch Workshops; • Potential input of ET work to the UNFCCC « Nairobi work programme on impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation to climate change » set up by COP12: Several WMO actions are identified as adaptation tools in support of this programme, e.g. Climate Data and Observations, Climate Watches, Climate Extremes, RCOFs, CLIPS, etc.. • Relevance of climate extremes to upcoming WCC-3 (2009) focused on seasonal to decadal timescales;

19. Thank you Merci Спасибо Gracias شكرا 谢 谢