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Heat waves in Budapest 2001-2003 A Páldy * , J Bobvos ** , A V ámos **

Heat waves in Budapest 2001-2003 A Páldy * , J Bobvos ** , A V ámos ** * - “Fodor József” National Center for Public Health, National Institute of Environmental Health, Budapest ** - Capital Institute of the National Public Health Service, Budapest. Background.

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Heat waves in Budapest 2001-2003 A Páldy * , J Bobvos ** , A V ámos **

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  1. Heat waves in Budapest 2001-2003 A Páldy *, J Bobvos **, A Vámos ** * - “Fodor József” National Center for Public Health, National Institute of Environmental Health, Budapest ** - Capital Institute of the National Public Health Service, Budapest

  2. Background • Analysis of effect of TEMP by time series method, , Budapest, 1970-2000

  3. Association of temperature and mortality in Budapest, 1970-2000 Winter Summer

  4. Effect of 5 oC increase of daily mean temperature on mortality in winter and summer, Budapest, 1970-2000

  5. Estimation of the effect of extreme hot days, 2003 • Risk estimate based on the time-series analysis of 1970-2000

  6. Risk estimate based on the time-series analysis of 1970-2000 RR / 1 oC = 1,025 95% CI 1.023; 1.027 increase of mortality by 1 oC increase of mean TEMP(β) = 1,7 95% CI 1.569; 1.839

  7. Excess mortality on extreme hot days and on days in 2003 [Mean No of deaths on days <26,6 oC – Mean of deaths on days >26,6 oC] * No of days TEMP>26,6 oC

  8. Excess mortality on extreme hot days and on days when mean TEMP was higher than the average, Budapest 01.05. – 31.08.2003.

  9. Methods and data of analysis of heatwaves, 2001-2003

  10. We investigated the health impact of exterme temperature episodes between 2001-2003 by applying the modified methodology of ENHIS1 House_E1indicator and byown method. • Cumulated daily mortality following the onset of the period of extreme heat with a 3-day delay was extracted from the average of the cumulated daily mortality calculated from the previous 3 years for the same period(WHO). • Cumulated daily mortality for the identical period of extreme heat was extracted from the average of the cumulated daily mortality calculated from the previous 3 years for the same period(HUN).

  11. Results The temperature data were retrieved from the National Meteorological Service, (Pestlörinc Station).The descriptive analysis of the data showed that the yearly mean temperature was the highest in 2002 (11,9 oC), the highest daily mean was recorded in 2003 (29,5 oC)

  12. The weekly mean temperature in summer 2001-2003

  13. The daily mean TEMP in years 2001-2003, summer period

  14. The number of extreme hot days increased from 4 to 17 days

  15. The “heatwave” periods were identified: • 3 or more consecutive days • when daily mean temperature was above >26,5 oC ( 97 % frequency)

  16. The health outcomes were all cause,cardiovascular and respiratory deaths for the permanent population of Budapest. The mortality data source was the Central Statistical Office.

  17. Daily mean mortality by month (May-Sept), 2001-2003

  18. Heatwaves in Budapest 2001

  19. No of excess death_1= No of death of given day in 2001 – mean No of death s of the prev. 3 years ( on the same day) No of excess death_2= No of death of given day in 2001 - mean No of deaths of the year 2001 (67)

  20. Heatwawes in Budapest 2002

  21. No of excess death_1= No of death of given day in 2002 – mean No of death s of the prev. 3 years ( on the same day) No of excess death_2= No of death of given day in 2002 - mean No of deaths of the year 2002 (61)

  22. Heatwawes in Budapest 2003

  23. No of excess death_1= No of death of given day in 2003 – mean No of death s of the prev. 3 years ( on the same day) No of excess death_2= No of death of given day in 2003 - mean No of deaths of the year 2003 (61)

  24. Excess death computed by WHO and Hungarian method

  25. Excess death computed by WHO and Hungarian method

  26. CONCLUSION • By comparing the two methods for evaluating the effect of heat waves it seems that in case of Budapest extreme heat has an impact on mortality on the hot days. • We could not state a delayed effect of extreme temperature on mortality using 3-day-lag. • In case when 2 heatwaves occurred in one summer period, the effect of the first heatwave was much stronger than the second one. • To assess the impact of heat wave the mean of 3-day death counts of the previous 3 years is not a stable reference value.

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