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Diffusion of Homicides from Illegal Firearm Markets

Diffusion of Homicides from Illegal Firearm Markets. Jeffrey Fagan Garth Davies Columbia University Simon Fraser University. This Research. Extension of theory and research on social contagion to the case of gun violence and gun markets Identify epidemic patterns

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Diffusion of Homicides from Illegal Firearm Markets

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  1. Diffusion of Homicides from Illegal Firearm Markets Jeffrey Fagan Garth Davies Columbia University Simon Fraser University

  2. This Research • Extension of theory and research on social contagion to the case of gun violence and gun markets • Identify epidemic patterns • Isolate effects of gun markets as sources of “pathogen” that both weakens host susceptibility and directly increases disease risk – in this case, gun violence • Locate highest risk areas

  3. Social Contagion • Diffusion: the spread of abstract ideas and concepts, technical information, and practices within a social system • The S-Curve revised (Godin, Rogers)

  4. Examples of Social Contagion • Diffusion of Innovation • Corn Seed Experiments (Ryan and Neal) • Adaptation of Tetracyclene (Coleman, Burt) • Consumer Behavior and Cultural Adaptations (Gladwell) • Fashion, Music • Political Thought • Language • Problem behaviors (Rowe and Rogers) • Teenage Pregnancy, Smoking, Drug and Alcohol Use • School Dropout • Suicide • Lynchings (Tolnay, 1998) • Riots (Short) • Gang homicides (Papachristos, 2005)

  5. Mechanisms of Social Contagion • Network interactions (Burt, Kandel) • egos interact at points of contact between innovator and adaptor • homogeneity and density of social networks dictates patterns of contact and social interaction (homophily) • Information obtained from close peers located in social and organizational networks has more weight than information obtained from objective sources • Cultural software (Balkin) • memetics within social networks: spread of beliefs and ideas via competition of ideas and survival of fittest, social norms transmission • Behavioral scripts (Fagan and Wilkinson, Nisbitt) • Practice and reinforcement of contingent behavioral responses • Infectious disease model of contagion • Most work on individuals and social networks, with attention to social context as facilitating transmission within networks, • Less on contagion across social areas • Lynching, Homicide research – across larger aggregates

  6. Illicit Gun Markets and Violence • Recent evidence • Braga and Pierce (2005) – disrupting gun markets reduces gun availability • But generally little research on firearm violence epidemiology and proximity to sources of illegal guns • Some qualitative evidence using small areas to approximate local markets • Difficulties in identifying spatial and economic parameters of these markets • In this research, we use localized measures of gun seizures to approximate location and intensity of illegal gun availability

  7. Litigation Interest • Municipal and private lawsuits • Convergence of criminal and tort responsibility • Theories • Public nuisance • Product liability • “Toxic tort” theory • Proximal causation • risk of death following exposure to firearms • Gun litigation as a privatized form of risk regulation

  8. Data Sources

  9. Figures 1 and 2. Gun Seizures and Gun Homicides,New York City Census Tracts1997 and 2002

  10. Analysis • Estimate models of gun seizures for each year in panel, use residuals as measures of gun market intensity (lagged) • We don’t think of gun markets as a tx, which would call for a different analytic strategy • Estimate spatial lag for adjacent census tracts, controlling for second-order diffusion beyond immediate diffusion area • Include social structure both in estimation of gun markets and in homicide models (we use residuals of gun seizures) • Models estimated using mixed effects poisson regressions with AR(1) covariance, random intercepts and random effects for time • See, Singer and Willett (2004), Rabe-Hesketh, S., Skrondal, A. and Pickles, A. (2005)

  11. Second Order Neighborhood Neighborhood Factors Gun Market Violence 1. Violence Factors Gun Market Tract

  12. Conclusions • Evidence of contagious effects from illegal gun markets, as measured by gun seizures, on gun homicide and total homicide • Weaker evidence for assaults • Effects concentrated at extremes of gun markets and at concentrations of “susceptibility” • Assaults are more heterogeneous, not closely linked to of gun markets • Quarantine v. Innoculation • Policies to disrupt gun markets should have payoffs • Distributive justice perspective points to innoculation as preferable strategy (Markovits, 2005)

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