Twinning water quality modelling in Latvia

1. Twinning water quality modelling in Latvia Helene Ejhed 2007-04-25

2. Models basics choice • Model purpose • Model components • Resolution • Data requirements • Time and cost • Test a couple of models

3. Models choice Monitoring pressure state impact Modeling pressure state impact response DPSIR

4. Freeware vs commercial -aspects • Access • Support • Developments • Modules - Package • Cost

5. Identified concerns • Eutrophication • Dangerous substances

6. Hydrology models • The HBV model (Bergström, 1976 and 1995; Lindström et al., 1997) • is a conceptual, continuos, dynamic and distributed rainfall-runoff model. It provides daily values of spatial precipitation, snow accumulation and melt, soil moisture, groundwater level, and finally,runoff from every sub-basin, and routing through rivers and lakes. The model is calibrated and validated against observed time-series. • included in TRK • widely used • SCS (Soil Concervation Service) model • calculates using flow transport factors dependent on landuse and soil type which gives a "Curve number". Snow routine and monitored baseflow can be added. Daily data. • included in SWAT and others for surface runoff • simple model

7. Models of Eutrophication • Purpose – to present good description of source apportionment (pressure) with resonable resolution to be able to give national overview of programmes of measures. • Complexity of models • Data requirements • User requirements • Parameter sensitivity complex physical based model

8. Models systems Eutrophication • ex. TRK used on national scale in Sweden – system of models in different modules: • HBV hydrology • SOILNDB N agricultural release • ICECREAM P agricultural release • HBV-NP retention • Point source calculations • Source apportionment system • ex. SWAT or INCA or Fyriså model or... - model package • ex. MIKESHE or CE-W2_QUAL - model package

9. EutrophicationModel systems - details • CE-QUAL-W2 is a two-dimensional water quality and hydrodynamic code • MIKESHE • Both have a detailed grid description of the catchment. • Detailed description of hydrology and retention in streams and lakes

10. EutrophicationModel systems – TRK N and P • Semidistributed description of the subcatchment • Detailed description of the agricultural process • Simple description of other diffuse sources • Detailed description of point sources on subcatchment • Description of hydrology • Decsription of retention • Applied on national scale in Sweden

11. EutrophicationModel systems – TRK N and PData requirements • General TRK: • Land cover data, soil texture data, Soil USDA class data, crop area, phosphorus soil data, livestock density, runoff data from HBV, N deposition, leaching data from SOILNDB for arable land and leaching average data from long-term measurements regarding other land-use, point source position and discharge data, percentage of separate sewer for paved surfaces, rural household position and discharge, retention in %from HBV-N. Data are compiled at subcatchment level. • SOILNDB: • meteorological data, average soil organic matter, crop management and yield, N fertilisation and manuring, N fixation rates in ley, deposition rates, non-existent crop sequence combinations.

12. EutrophicationModel systems – TRK N and PData requirements continued • HBV: subbasin division and coupling, altitude distribution, time-series of precipitation and temperature (time-series of observed water discharge at some site). • HBV-NP: results from HBV,SOILNDB and ICECREAMDB, crop and soil distribution, leaching concentrations from other land use, location and emissions from point sources and rural households, lake depths and atmospheric N deposition (time-series of observed riverine N concentrations in some site).

13. EutrophicationModel systems – TRK N and PData requirements continued • ICECREAM – P agricultural model • requires phosphorous in soil,

14. EutrophicationModel systems –SWAT • SWAT is a continuous time model that operates on a daily time step at basin scale. The objective of such a model is to predict the long-term impacts in large basins of management and also timing of agricultural practices within a year (i.e., crop rotations, planting and harvest dates, irrigation, fertilizer, and pesticide application rates and timing). • Model system package • Detailed description of the landuse • Data requirement heavy • User requirement heavy

15. EutrophicationModel systems –INCA-P • for assessing the effects of multiple sources of phosphorus on the water quality and aquatic ecology in heterogeneous river systems. The Integrated catchments model for Phosphorus (INCA-P) is a process-based, mass balance model that simulates the phosphorus dynamics in both the plant/soil system and the stream. • model system package

16. EutrophicationModel - INCA

17. EutrophicationModel tests • To be performed in Jelgava by Agricultural university in Latvia using Fyriså model, and SOILNDB and ICECREAM 2007 – low financing • Comparison of HBV-NP, Fyriså model, conceptual models with process based models in lake Vänern in Sweden published in 2004 – similar performance in model • Fyriså model based on monthly based data. • Communicate with the above project • Start by applying the TRK and SWAT • Then test MIKESHE • Data requirements will decide usefulness

19. Dangerous substancesModels and processes • Desiscion support system – SOCOPSE.se • Recommendation of process • Chemical fate modeling – fugacity approach • Screening monitoring • MFA (Material Flow analysis) and LCA (Life Cycle Analysis) • QSAR modeling – for new substances

20. Toxic pressure Occurrence and distribution of chemicals in different media Biota Transport Processes and the use of Models

21. Dangerous substancesModels and processes - QSAR • QSAR model is a relation between chemical structure and a property of the chemical compound. The features of a chemical structure are captured by so called chemical descriptors that can be of a number of different types.