How can the HE sector be future-proofed?

1. Education Strategy How can the HE sector be future-proofed? Navigating the new landscape 13 June 2019 Draft

2. Future-proofing the sector is a slightly different challenge than ensuring the survival (in a recognisable form) of each institution • What are we trying to future-proof? The UK HE Sector c.143 individual universities (+ others) How can the HE sector be future-proofed? 2

3. Future-proofing the sector is a slightly different challenge than ensuring the survival (in a recognisable form) of each institution What are we trying to future-proof? The UK HE Sector c.143 individual universities (+ others) • International reputation for quality • Driver of UK research • Driver of workforce skills • Engine for social mobility • Individual brands • Current (and future?) staff • Local economic hubs • Local learning and career opportunities • Prospects (and stress levels) of current students How can the HE sector be future-proofed? 3

4. Future-proofing the sector is a slightly different challenge than ensuring the survival (in a recognisable form) of each institution • What are we trying to future-proof? The UK HE Sector c.143 individual universities (+ others) Forging a path to the future vs. Safeguarding our heritage How can the HE sector be future-proofed? 4

5. Future-proofing the sector is a slightly different challenge than ensuring the survival (in a recognisable form) of each institution What are we trying to future-proof? The UK HE Sector c.143 individual universities (+ others) Forging a path to the future AND Safeguarding our heritage How can the HE sector be future-proofed? 5

6. Several challenges have emerged – but we’re going to focus on the threats to student volumes as the individual institution level Why are we worried? International competition Changing supply / demand ratio Competitive turbulence Funding changes (and reductions) How can the HE sector be future-proofed? 6

7. It is quite possible that a c.10-15% gap will open up between supply and demand over the next three years Why are we worried? International competition Changing supply / demand ratio Competitive turbulence Funding changes (and reductions) Change in Demand – 3 years Change in Supply – 3 years How can the HE sector be future-proofed? 7

8. If this happens, then until capacity reduces (or demand grows) then there will be empty spaces at universities – but where? Why are we worried? International competition Changing supply / demand ratio Competitive turbulence Funding changes (and reductions) 10-15% gap…. = 30% of institutions 30% empty 40% of institutions 40% empty Will vary by… …region …subject …tariff level Can be managed by… …”winning” …extending the core …shrinking How can the HE sector be future-proofed? 8

9. This raises the game for university senior leadership and governors, who will have to look harder for threats / opportunities What’s the challenge? Understanding where you are Spotting change Charting a course Course correction How can the HE sector be future-proofed? 9

10. This raises the game for university senior leadership and governors, who will have to look harder for threats / opportunities What’s the challenge? Understanding where you are Spotting change Charting a course Course correction • Subject strength • Aspirational vs. back-up plan • Student segments & objectives • “Competitive perimeter” • Financial drivers • Trends (long term) • Shifts (between cycles) • Divergence (within cycle) • Leading indicators of change • Objective vs. mechanics • Focus vs. covering the bases • Wider stakeholders and community needs • Ruthlessness? • Plan B • Retrenchment • Institutional flexibility • Success on every measure may not be possible How can the HE sector be future-proofed? 10