Agriculture: Links between water and air IEAs

1. Agriculture: Links between water and air IEAs Martin Adams Judith Bates AEA Technology Environment European Topic Centre on Air and Climate Change(ETC/ACC)

2. Introduction • Framework for agricultural baseline scenario development and modelling • Existing datagaps & main additional information sources • Links/relevance of IA for ETC-WTR assessment • Common definition of agricultural sector for water and air?

3. IA: Agricultural sector • Agriculture is important driving force for pressures on air and water pollution. • Main emissions (non-energy) comprise NH3, CH4 and N2O. • Main driving forces: • increases in fertiliser use & livestock numbers /density Leading to: • higher manure loadings and ammonia emissions; • nutrient surpluses, NO3- leaching and higher atmospheric N deposition.

4. Base-line scenario development Two part approach used: • Part A: Determine agricultural activity data; (incorporates scenario runs e.g. CAP reform). • Part B: Application of data in emissions models • IIASA RAINS model for NH3 • AEAT model for CH4 and N2O

5. Part A: Future activity data - CAPRI • Common Agricultural Policy Regional Impact • activity-level based (ca. 50), farm & market balances, unit value prices, policy variables (regional and EU-level: tariffs, quotas etc). • Detailed: Includes all agric. inputs and outputs according to national accounts definition. • Allows modelling of agri-environment policy measures.

6. CAPRI continued. • Reference run and strategic scenarios due in 2004 (future CAP scenarios - DG AGRI). • Regarded as future (EU15) model of choice: • Disaggregated output: analysis broken down from EU to national and to regional levels by activity. • Short timescale available (10 yr horizon) • Coverage of AC not included • Updated baseline output not yet available    

7. Part B:Emissions modelling - RAINS • Regional Air Pollution INformation and Simulation 1990-2010. • Reduction strategies & costs for SO2, NOx, VOCs and NH3 emissions and impacts on acidification and eutrophication. • NH3 module source data: • based on historical national stats (FAOSTAT & IFA), • projection forecasts compiled by IIASA based on ECAM and EFMA data

8. Part B:Emissions modelling - AEAT • CH4 & N2O emissions for EU15: 1990 and 2010. • Emissions based on IPCC inventory guidelines using national activity data and emission factors. • Source data: • livestock numbers from EUROSTAT and DG AGRI ‘Prospects for Agricultural Markets’ • N fertiliser use: FAOSTAT and EFMA • crop production from FAOSTAT, forecasts from EFMA

9. Data Gaps & Issues • CAPRI: no activity data on % inorganic N fertiliser use which is urea (EFMA, IFA, FAOSTAT) • CAPRI reference base-line includes exogenous variables: e.g. GDP/capita, population. Should be consistent with other IA work. • Coverage: • CAPRI: EU15 + NO to 2010 only • IIASA Rains: All countries to 2010 (extension to 2020) • AEAT: EU15 to 2010 (extension to CEE/NIS & 2020)   

10. Issues continued • ETC/ACC: • initial IA for EU15 to 2010 • secondary IA for EU15 + AC & 2010 to 2020 • Secondary IA: need data from several models: • major inconsistencies in assumptions and policy drivers (involve CAPRI team) • large regional models (e.g. IMAGE) lack resolution & data on country trading etc. • Current ETC/ACC work often driven by what data is available and when.

11. Common ground for ETC/ACC and WTR? • Regard use of same agricultural scenarios (i.e. at least Part A) as sensible: • consistency • transparency • CAPRI output reviewed to assess usefulness for ETC/WTR? • Investigate potential links to RAINS and AEAT models (both ‘nutrient surplus’ based).