Vision for Air Force Science & Technology During 2010-2030

1. Technology Horizons: Vision for Air Force Science & Technology During 2010-2030 Dr. Werner J.A. Dahm (Former) Chief Scientist of the U.S. Air Force Air Force Pentagon (4E130) Washington, D.C. 25 March 2011 25 Mar 2011 ADRC Presentation Cleared for Public Release

2. Ten Technical Directorates Comprise the Air Force Research Laboratory Directed Energy Materials & Manufacturing AFOSR Munitions SpaceVehicles Human Effectiveness Air Vehicles Sensors Information Propulsion 25 Mar 2011 ADRC Presentation Cleared for Public Release

3. Distribution of Air Force S&T FundingAmong Technical Directorates $1.9B Direct AFRL funds + $2.2B Customer funds + 324M Congress adds $4.5B total AFRL 6.1, 6.2, 6.3 Amounts shown are $2B/yr Air Force core funds; does not include $2B/yr customer funds 25 Mar 2011 ADRC Presentation Cleared for Public Release

4. U.S. Air Force “Technology Horizons” SecAF / CSAF Tasking Letter Terms of Reference (TOR)

5. Overview of Air Force S&T Visions “Technology Horizons” is the next in the succession of major S&T vision studies conducted at the Headquarters Air Force level that define key S&T investments over the next 10-20 years 7 1 3 6 Technology Horizons (2010) New World Vistas (1995) Project Forecast (1964) Toward New Horizons (1945) High-impact studies Woods Hole Summer Study (1958) New Horizons II (1975) Project Forecast II (1986) 4 5 2 Low-impact studies 2010+ 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 25 Mar 2011 ADRC Presentation Cleared for Public Release

6. “Technology Horizons” Study Phases Mar 09 Jun 09 Oct 09 Dec 09 Feb 2010 “Technology Horizons” 2010+ Working Phase 2 Working Phase 3 Working Phase 4 Implementation Phase 5 Planning Phase 1 Dissemination of Results and Implementation Air, Space, Cyber Domain Working Groups Cross-Domain Working Group Findings, Conclusions & Recommendations Objectives, Tasking, and Organization, Report and Outbrief 25 Mar 2011 ADRC Presentation Cleared for Public Release

7. 10+10 Technology-to-Capability Process Cross-Domain Air STEP 2 STEP 1 Future U.S. Capabilities Space 10-Years-Forward Science & Technology Projection 10-Years-Forward Capabilities Projection Cyber S&T Advances in 10 Years Resulting Capabilities in 20 Years Potential Adversary Capabilities Capabilities Today (2010) (2020) (2030) Cyber 10-Years-Back Science & Technology Investment Need 10-Years-Back Counter-Capability Technology Need U.S. Counter- Capabilities Space STEP 4 STEP 3 Air Cross-Domain “10+10 Technology-to-Capability” process gives a deductive 20-year horizon view

8. Air Force S&T Vision for 2010-2030 from “Technology Horizons” 25 Mar 2011 ADRC Presentation Cleared for Public Release

9. Overarching Themes That Will VectorAir Force S&T During 2010-2030

10. Potential Capability Areas (1/2) PCA1: Inherently Intrusion-Resilient Cyber Systems PCA2: Automated Cyber Vulnerability Assessments PCA3: Decision-Quality Prediction of Behavior PCA4: Augmentation of Human Performance PCA5: Constructive Environments for Discovery and Training PCA6: Adaptive Flexibly-Autonomous Systems PCA7: Frequency-Agile Spectrum Utilization PCA8: Dominant Spectrum Warfare Operations PCA9: Precision Navigation/Timing in GPS-Denied Environments PCA10: Next-Generation High-Bandwidth Secure Communications PCA11: Persistent Near-Space Communications Relays PCA12: Processing-Enabled Intelligent ISR Sensors PCA13: High-Altitude Long-Endurance ISR Airships PCA14: Prompt Theater-Range ISR/Strike Systems PCA15: Fractionated, Survivable, Remotely-Piloted Systems

11. Potential Capability Areas (2/2) PCA16: Direct Forward Air Delivery and Resupply PCA17: Energy-Efficient Partially Buoyant Cargo Airlifters PCA18: Fuel-Efficient Hybrid Wing-Body Aircraft PCA19: Next-Generation High-Efficiency Turbine Engines PCA20: Embedded Diagnostic/Prognostic Subsystems PCA21: Penetrating Persistent Long-Range Strike PCA22: High-Speed Penetrating Cruise Missile PCA23: Hyperprecision Low-Collateral Damage Munitions PCA24: Directed Energy for Tactical Strike/Defense PCA25: Enhanced Underground Strike with Conventional Munitions PCA26: Reusable Airbreathing Access-to-Space Launch PCA27: Rapidly Composable Small Satellites PCA28: Fractionated/Distributed Space Systems PCA29: Persistent Space Situational Awareness PCA30: Improved Orbital Conjunction Prediction

12. Mapping Potential Capability Areas to Air Force Service Core Functions Potential Capability Areas (PCA1-PCA30) span over all 12 Air Force Service Core Functions (SCFs) 25 Mar 2011 ADRC Presentation Cleared for Public Release

13. Technology Areas Identified for Each Potential Capability Area (e.g., PCA1) Ad hoc networks Virtual machine architectures Agile hypervisors Polymorphic networks Agile networks Pseudorandom network recomposition Laser communications Secure RF links Frequency-agile RF systems Spectral mutability Dynamic spectrum access Quantum key distribution Complex adaptive distributed networks Complex adaptive systems Complex system dynamics V&V for complex adaptive systems • PCA1: Inherently Intrusion-Resilient Cyber Systems • Autonomous systems • Autonomous reasoning • Resilient autonomy • Collaborative/cooperative control • Decision support tools • Automated software generation • Distributed sensing networks • Sensor data fusion • Signal identification and recognition • Cyber offense • Cyber defense • Cyber resilience • Advanced computing architectures • Complex environment visualization • Massive analytics • Automated reasoning and learning 13 25 Mar 2011 ADRC Presentation Cleared for Public Release

14. Dramatically Increased Use of Highly Adaptable Autonomous Systems • Capability increases, manpower efficiencies, and cost reductions are possible through far greater use of autonomous systems • Increase in degree of autonomy and range of systems and processes where autonomous reasoning and control can be applied • Adaptive autonomy can offer time-domain operational advantages over adversaries using human planning and decision loops • S&T to establish “certifiable” trust in highly adaptible autonomous systems is a key to enabling this transformation • Potential adversaries may gain benefits from fielding such systems without any burden of establishing certifiable “trust in autonomy” • As one of the greatest beneficiaries of such autonomous systems, the Air Force must lead in developing the underlying S&T basis 25 Mar 2011 ADRC Presentation Cleared for Public Release

15. High-Altitude Long-Endurance (HALE) Unconventional Air Vehicle Systems • New unmanned aircraft systems (VULTURE) and airships (ISIS) can remain aloft for years • Delicate lightweight structures can survive low-altitude winds if launch can be chosen • Enabled by solar cells powering lightweight batteries or regenerative fuel cell systems • Large airships containing football field size radars give extreme resolution/persistence DARPA VULTURE HALE Aircraft Concept DARPA VULTURE HALE Aircraft Concept 25 Mar 2011 ADRC Presentation Cleared for Public Release

16. Augmentation of Human Performance to Better Match Users With Technology • Natural human capacities are becoming increasingly mismatched to data volumes, processing capabilities, and decision speeds that are offered or demanded by technology • S&T to augment human performance will be needed to gain benefits of new technologies • May come from increased use of autonomous systems, improved man-machine interfaces, or direct augmentation of humans 25 Mar 2011 ADRC Presentation Cleared for Public Release

17. Technologies to Enable Freedom of Operations in Contested Environments • S&T advances are needed in three key areas to enable increased freedom of operations in contested or denied environments • Basic and early applied research are needed to support development of these capabilities • Technologies for increased cyber resilience • e.g., massive virtualization, highly polymorphic networks, agile hypervisors • Technologies to augment or supplant PNT in GPS-denied environments • e.g., cold-atom (Bose-Einstein condensate) INS systems, chip-scale atomic clocks • Technologies to support dominance in electromagnetic spectrum warfare • e.g., dynamic spectrum access, spectral mutability, advanced RF apertures 25 Mar 2011 ADRC Presentation Cleared for Public Release

18. Processing-Enabled Intelligent SensorsFractionated Composable UAV Systems Processing-Enabled Intelligent ISR Sensors • Current massive data flow from ISR platforms is creating tremendous PED manpower need • Full-motion video (FMV) analysis is growing; even more with Gorgon State and ARGUS-IS • Technologies needed to enable cueing-level processing before data leaves the sensor • UAV system fractionation is a relatively new architecture enabled by technology advances • Allows complete system to be separated into functional elements cooperating as a system • Common platform having element-specific payload enabled lower cost and attritability • Permits mission-specific composition of systems from lower-cost common elements • Low levels of redundancy among elements dramatically increases system survivability Fractionated Survivable Remote-Piloted Systems 25 Mar 2011 ADRC Presentation Cleared for Public Release

19. Other Top Potential Capability Areas PCA19: Next-Generation High-Efficiency Turbine Engines PCA24: Directed Energy for Tactical Strike/Defense PCA27: Rapidly Composable Small Satellites PCA30: Persistent Space Situational Awareness 25 Mar 2011 ADRC Presentation Cleared for Public Release

20. Closing Remarks & Implementation 25 Mar 2011 ADRC Presentation Cleared for Public Release