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A. Scott Voorhees Kyoto University / U.S. EPA

Particulate Matter Air Pollution Reduction Scenarios In Osaka, Houston, Bangkok and Seoul -- A Prospective Health Benefits Analysis BAQ-Asia 2006. A. Scott Voorhees Kyoto University / U.S. EPA Nguyen Thi Kim Oanh, Prapat Pongkiatkul - Asian Institute of Technology

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A. Scott Voorhees Kyoto University / U.S. EPA

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  1. Particulate Matter Air Pollution Reduction Scenarios In Osaka, Houston, Bangkok and Seoul -- A Prospective Health Benefits AnalysisBAQ-Asia 2006 A. Scott Voorhees Kyoto University / U.S. EPA Nguyen Thi Kim Oanh, Prapat Pongkiatkul - Asian Institute of Technology Yoon Shin Kim - Hanyang University Wanida Jinsart, Wongpun Limpaseni - Chulalongkorn University Iwao Uchiyama - Kyoto University voorhees.scott@epa.gov

  2. Methodology • World Bank (Ostro, Vergara et al.) • U.S. Environmental Protection Agency • Identify health effects for PM exposure (concentration-response functions) • Are health effects from U.S. or Europe the same as effects in Asia? • Chestnut, Ostro, Nuntavarn, Smith (World Bank, 1998) • Health Effects of Particulate Matter Air Pollution in Bangkok • Report to Thai Pollution Control Department • “…[P]articulate matter is affecting the people of Bangkok. The health effects are comparable to those seen in studies throughout the world.”

  3. Health effects • Long term mortality • Bronchitis (chronic and acute) • Cardiovascular disease • Pneumonia • Asthma • Collect data • Monitored air concentrations (2001; 2002) • PM10 • PM2.5 (assume 60% of PM10 is PM2.5 if no monitoring) • Populations • Total • Age specific • Asthmatic

  4. PM Monitors * Number of active monitors that reported PM data in analysis year.

  5. Air Quality Standard Korea Seoul U.S. Thailand

  6. Air Quality Standard U.S. Korea Seoul Thailand Japan

  7. 10% 17% 17% 10% 17% 0% 10% 11% 17% 0% 10% 17% 10% 2% 17% • Reduction in PM - Assume uniform reductions throughout city • (1) Predetermined reductions - 5%, 10% and 25% throughout city -- World Health Organization -- even low levels of PM exposure can produce health effects (no “effects threshold” exists) • (2) City specific reductions – based on reduction required for the most polluted location, applied throughout city to reach 50 ug/m3 (annual) and 150 ug/m3 (24 hour) • Reduction in PM - Assume location specific reductions • (3) At higher pollution locations only, reduction needed to reach 50 ug/m3 (annual) and 150 ug/m3 (24 hour) (2) (3) (1) Map of Generic Urban Area

  8. Uniform 10% Reduction(# of cases)

  9. Uniform City-Specific Reduction(# of cases)

  10. Valuation – Health • Willingness To Pay (WTP) – lost wages, avoided pain and suffering, loss of satisfaction, loss of leisure time, etc. • Cost Of Illness (COI) – medical expenses for treatment of illness • Valuation – Productivity (loss of income) • Morbidity - All valuations (both WTP- and COI-based values) included lost wages • Mortality • Willingness To Pay – Value of foregone production and consumption, leisure time and loss of contact with loved ones • Human Capital Loss • Value of person is the value of the person’s production only (i.e., discounted present value of person’s expected future wages)

  11. Currency and Income Comparison (1999) a Amount needed to buy same amount of goods and services as $1 buys in U.S. b Gross National Income per capita in international dollars of equivalent purchase power

  12. Value of Each Health Effect - Adjusted for Local Cost of Living ($) US dollars; 2010 values in 1999 prices

  13. Benefits Estimation Scenarios WTP Country B = WTP Country A [Income Country B /Income Country A]   = income elasticity of WTP (i.e., % change in WTP corresponding to 1% change in income)

  14. 2010 Total Benefits Scenarios - Bangkok(million 1999$)

  15. Issues • PM-fine fraction ranges from 1/3 up to over 2/3 • Population data do not match monitor locations • Osaka - 22 monitors in 16 of 24 districts • Bangkok – 9 active monitors in 7 of 50 districts • Chemical composition & emission sources • Bangkok – diesel vehicles, biomass burning, sea salt, construction dust, (NH4)2SO4, NaNO3 • Seoul – long range transport of yellow dust • Climate • Wet season / dry season (e.g., Bangkok) • Higher fraction of particles (fine and coarse) in dry season • Winter / summer • Outdoor vs. indoor exposure • Pedestrians; cycling commuters & shoppers; street vendors; sidewalk restaurants; pedestrians; auto-rickshaws; open window buses

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