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Gemma Catney PhD Research Student Centre for Spatial Territorial Analysis and Research (C-STAR)

Internal migration flows in Northern Ireland: exploring patterns and motivations in a divided society. Gemma Catney PhD Research Student Centre for Spatial Territorial Analysis and Research (C-STAR) School of Geography, Archaeology and Palaeoecology (GAP) Queen’s University, Belfast.

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Gemma Catney PhD Research Student Centre for Spatial Territorial Analysis and Research (C-STAR)

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  1. Internal migration flows in Northern Ireland: exploring patterns and motivations in a divided society Gemma Catney PhD Research Student Centre for Spatial Territorial Analysis and Research (C-STAR) School of Geography, Archaeology and Palaeoecology (GAP) Queen’s University, Belfast UPTAP Session 2, RGS-IBG Annual Conference, 2006

  2. Residential Segregation in Northern Ireland • Religious residential segregation in NI – media and academic research • New academic research pointing towards residential segregation as either decreasing or staying the same • However, large geographic variations, with some increases in segregation in particular areas, and persistence in others • But why?

  3. Internal migration in Northern Ireland • In situ growth and/or migration • Simpson (2004), in Urban Studies • Migration – reinforcement, erosion, creation of residential segregation? • How far is community background important in migration decision-making? • Under-explored and little understood

  4. Presentation outline • The geography of migration in NI • Migration rates • Mobility differentials • Internal migration and residential segregation • Migration rates by community background • Global regression: demographic composition and migration • Local regression (GWR) • Before and after migration • Segregation indices, etc. • Further work: current and future • Conclusions

  5. Methodology in brief QUANTITATIVE Migration rates and differentials Geographically weighted regression (GWR) SI modelling DATA SOURCES Census of pop. of NI (2001) Census grid square data (1971-2001) Residents (movers and non-movers) Key informants (community reps, property developers, etc.) QUALITATIVE Semi-structured interviews Focus groups Cognitive Mapping

  6. In- and out-migration Inflow rate (per 1000 pop.) Outflow rate (per 1000 pop.)

  7. Internal migration and residential segregation: solving the problem

  8. Migration rates by community background Catholic inflow over total inflow Catholic outflow over total outflow

  9. (a) Deciles of % Catholic residents against % Catholic outflow (b) Deciles of % Protestant residents against % Protestant outflow

  10. What is GWR? • Normal regression assumes that a relationship between variables holds at each location • Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) accounts for spatial variations in the relationships between variables • GWR produces regression coefficients at (the centroid of) each selected location, facilitating an assessment of how the relationship between a set of variables changes from place to place

  11. GWR and migration • Local variations in the regression between demographic composition and in- and out-migration not accounted for with global regression • Useful in understanding these relationships, and in predicting future change • % residents by community background and inflow / outflow by community background as proportion of all inflow / outflow

  12. GWR: Catholic residents against Catholic inflow

  13. GWR predictions (independent = 50%)

  14. Before and after migration • Examine population after migration (2001) and before migration (2000) Potential issues: • In situ growth: data on births and deaths • Internal migrants only: no GB (or further) data on community background • Possibilities: Proportions (% CB) Segregation indices Concentration profiles

  15. Segregation indices: the role of migration

  16. Segregation indices: the role of migration • Overall indication of minimal change, with decreasing segregation and greater mixing • But, these are global measures • Can use, for example, % Catholic and Protestant before and after migration • Do show considerable local variations – some areas increasing, some decreasing

  17. Other work: current and future • Origin-destination (flow) data • SI modelling • Logistic regression • Principal Components Analysis • Etc • Qualitative research • Interviews, focus groups and cognitive mapping • Selected case study areas (Belfast)

  18. Transect: South Belfast

  19. Summary and conclusions • Some insight into the geography of migration in NI • Methods for exploring the relationship between internal migration and residential segregation • Migration has a role to play in the creation, reinforcement and erosion of segregation • Positive relationship between demographic composition and migration • Local variations in the relationships • Variable from place to place, but broadly suggests a decline in segregation due (at least in part) to migration

  20. Acknowledgements • UPTAP • My supervisor, Dr Ian Shuttleworth, for his comments and advice • NISRA, for the provision of Census data • Department for Employment and Learning (DEL), for funding • Contested Cities, Urban Universities (CU2) research team and funding body (European Programme Peace 2)

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