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Lecture 6: Micro Origin of 911 (I) – The Provocative Strategy of Al-Qaeda?

Lecture 6: Micro Origin of 911 (I) – The Provocative Strategy of Al-Qaeda?. 17 th February 2003 (Monday). Session Arrangement. T1: 10:00-11:00am Room 4472 [s] T2A: 11:00-11:50am Room 1403 [k] T2B: 11:00-11:50am Room 4472 [s] T3A: 12:00-12:50pm Room 4472 [k]

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Lecture 6: Micro Origin of 911 (I) – The Provocative Strategy of Al-Qaeda?

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  1. Lecture 6: Micro Origin of 911 (I) –The Provocative Strategy of Al-Qaeda? 17th February 2003 (Monday)

  2. Session Arrangement • T1: 10:00-11:00am Room 4472 [s] • T2A: 11:00-11:50am Room 1403 [k] • T2B: 11:00-11:50am Room 4472 [s] • T3A: 12:00-12:50pm Room 4472 [k] • T3B: 12:00-12:50pm Room 3301A [s] • PLEASE FINALIZE TODAY!

  3. Macro Vs Micro Origins • George W Bush: Why do they hate us so much? • Macro Origins: • Long-term Historical Development • Islamic Fundamentalism, Clash of Civilization, the American Pride… • Micro Origins: • Why was 911 arranged that way? • Why did Osama Bin Laden arrange the attack despite his expectation of American revenge? • Laden Conspiracy; Bush Conspiracy; No Conspiracies…

  4. Structure of Lecture 6: • Does the Methodology of 911 Matter? • 2 Possible Plans of Osama Bin Laden • Minimalist Plan: Omar Doctrine • Maximalist Plan: The Grand Strategy • Conclusion: The “Taoist Strategy”

  5. PART IDoes the Methodology of 911 Matter?

  6. Alternatives of 911 • Assassination of President? • Overseas Bombing? • Ally with Anti-American Powers? • Self-strengthening Movement? • Cultural/ Psychological Attack?

  7. Does Methodology Matter? • Doesn’t matter: The Invisible Hands Theory • Does matters: The Marxist History • Capitalism  Imperialism  Socialism • Class Consciousness against Exploiters • Some Yes, Some No • Short-term Vs Long-term History

  8. We Can’t Truly Understand the Planners: Goals of the Decision-makers • Type 1: Goals on Paper • Type 2: Goals by Research • Type 3: Conspiracy Theories • Goals not-researchable • The American Conspiracy Theory • The Al-Qaeda Conspiracy Theory • Goals of Al-Qaeda: Which Level?

  9. PART IIGoals of Osama Bin Laden:Goals by Research or by Conspiracy?

  10. Assigned Readings • Main Text: Walter Laqueur: “Left, Right, and Beyond – the Changing Face of Terror” (H&R P.71-82) • Supplementary Text: Tariq Ali: The Clash of Fundamentalisms. Chapter 20: The September Surprise. (P.290-302).

  11. The Minimal Argument • Laden has more capabilities: • Unconventional Weapons • Jihad • The Trend of Escalation • “HK Military Expert”: “more to come” • Aim: To drive America out of the Middle East

  12. The Maximal Argument • Laden has no more capabilities: • The Vacuum of US Intelligence • Eradication of Al-Qaeda Headquarters • Lacking in Mass Destruction Weapons • Pentagon (e.g. Wesley Clark): • No more of the same scale • Aim: to change the world

  13. PART III From Minimalism – The “Omar Doctrine”

  14. Precedence: Monroe Doctrine (1825) • Latin America (Central + South America) • America’s Sphere of Interest • End of Napoleonic War (1815)  End of Spanish Colonial Empire (1820s) • President James Monroe: “America is America’s America” (1825)

  15. The “Omar Doctrine” • “If American wants to root out terrorism and intimidation, then it should withdraw its force from the Gulf and demonstrate neutrality over the issue of Palestine.” -- Omar, Head of Taliban (Sept 24 2001)

  16. Message from the Omar Doctrine • “Middle East is Islam’s Middle East” • Osama Bin Laden’s Video Speeches • Omar instead of Laden: • Victim Vs Aggressor

  17. PART IV From Maximalism – Grand Strategy of Al Qaeda

  18. “Grand Strategy” • Professor Paul Kennedy: “Grand Strategy” in Cold War • “War of Unlimited Boundaries” by Chinese • Provocative Strategy • The strategy to unite the whole world against the United States • To provoke the Americans at 911 • The Americans will fight back in an insane manner and angered the whole world

  19. OBL Step 1: Hysteria of America • Human Loss/ Civilian Loss Vs Military Loss/ Assassination • Hysteria of Mass Opinion • Getting out from the Vietnam War Shadow • Hysteria of Government • Extremist Foreign Policies • Patriotism, Marginalization of Leftists • New McCarthyism against the Muslims…

  20. OBL Step 2: Alienation of Arabic Allies • Sentiments of Muslims  Unification • Crisis of Pro-Western Arabic Governments • Coups d’etat? • Saudi Arabia: the money • Crown Prince Abdullah’s Dilemma • Pakistan: the nuclear arsenal • General Pervez Musharraf: • Military Dictatorship by American Endorsement + Popular Election

  21. OBL Step 3:Alienation of Western Allies • Genuine Anti-war Movements • Convince American Allies of the “Next Step of America”: towards its allies as well • Neutralization of the Western Bloc • France: UN Veto power; The Uncompromising History… • Germany: Real Leader of Europe… • Turkey: Internal Security Concern…

  22. OBL Step 4: Revolution of World Order • Anti-Americanism as a New Culture: • Message from the Anti-war Demonstration • Message from the Internet • Experience of Cultural Revolution in China: • From “Great Disorder” to the “Great Order” • Assumptions under Chaos Theory • 2001-2003: Successful?

  23. PART V Conclusion – Lessons from Chinese Philosophy

  24. Osama Bin Laden: Benefit of the Doubt • A “Calculative Planner”: the planner who can see the outcome -- • Computer Simulation/ RISK • McArthur: I’ll be Back! • A “Messianic Planner”: the planner who can’t see the outcome -- • “Statements of Wisdom” • Jesus: fall of Roman Empire

  25. Taoism in International Relations • Philosophy of Lao Zi’s Tao Te Jing: • “The Way can be told is not the Way.” (Cp.1) • “The Weak conceal its ability to overcome the Strong.” (Cp.36) • Osama Bin Laden: Invite the American Invasion under Taoism?

  26. Analogy of the Business World • Stock Market • Unfriendly bid by small potatoes  • Hysterias fight back by Tycoons  • Chain Effects: sympathy/ allies/ overreach of tycoons… favorable to small potatoes • Revolution of Stock Market

  27. …Laden’s Grand Strategy • An Unfinished Story • Patience!

  28. ~~The End~~ Thank you for attending

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