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Michael Hacker HDMK November 16, 2012

The National Association of Business Political Action Committees 2012 NABPAC POST-ELECTION CONFERENCE. Game Change or More of the Same? Power and Politics in the 113 th Congress. Michael Hacker HDMK November 16, 2012. Election Results by the Numbers. Obama 62,306,898 votes (50.6%)

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Michael Hacker HDMK November 16, 2012

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  1. The National Association of Business Political Action Committees2012 NABPAC POST-ELECTION CONFERENCE Game Change or More of the Same? Power and Politics in the 113th Congress Michael Hacker HDMK November 16,2012

  2. Election Results by the Numbers • Obama • 62,306,898 votes (50.6%) • 26 states (+DC) • 332 electoral votes • Romney • 58,937,514 (47.8%) • 24 states • 206 electoral votes THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | 2

  3. Exit Polls - Demography Groups Obama Won (53%) Women (55-44) +11% (13%) Black (93-6) +87% (3%) Asian (73-26) +47% (10%) Hispanic (71-27) +44% (5%) GLBT (76-22) +54% (41%) Unmarried (62-35) +27% Groups Romney Won (47%) Men (52-45) +7% (72%) White (59-39) +20% (25%) 60 yrs+ (54-45) +9% (29%) 45-59 yrs (52-47) +5% (60%) Married (56-42) +14% (29%) Independents (50-45)+5%

  4. Senate by the Numbers • Democrats will have a 55 seat majority (+2) • Purple state wins: Virginia, Missouri • Red state wins: Indiana, Montana, North Dakota • 20 Dem seats up in ‘14 • 7 Dems seats in states Romney/Ryan carried THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | 4

  5. Moving Right & Left Simultaneously Red State Dems in Cycle • Baucus • Pryor • Landrieu • Warner • Rockefeller • Hagen • Johnson • Liberals replacing Mods • Brown  Warren • Lieberman  Murphy • Kohl  Baldwin • Webb  Kaine • Snowe  King • Akaka  Hirono THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES

  6. The House by the Numbers • Democrats likely gained 7 seats • Democrats defeated 16 GOP incumbents (GOP defeated 6 Dem incumbents) • GOP has current 242-193 margin • Likely 235-200 in new Congress • Consequence of redistricting: Democrats won majority of the House vote (+500k), but GOP claimed 55% of House seats • Leadership in both parties largely unchanged THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | 6

  7. Fiscal Cliff • Obama campaigned and won on raising top rates • 250k, 500k or 1m threshold? • Corporate deductions or rates? (big/small biz split) • Cap deductions (35-50k?) • Tax & Entitlement reform • Sequester delay? THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | 7

  8. What to Watch For • RSC & Liberal rhetoric on going over the cliff • What can Boehner sell to rank and file? • Cracks in the GOP tax orthodoxy • Kristol, Norquist, WSJ editorial page • Dem willingness to accept entitlement reforms • Financial market reactions/Credit downgrade? • Next Treasury Secretary – Lew, Bowles, other? • Filibuster reform THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | 8

  9. Questions? Michael Hacker HDMK 202.789.4365 mhacker@hdmk.org THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | 9

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