AP Macroeconomics

AP Macroeconomics Gross Domestic Product 9-19-12

Introduction to GDP • “Gross”=total before adjustments (inflation) • “Domestic product”=production in the US, even if foreign owned • “National product”=production owned by US companies

Intro to GDP (cont.) • GDP is officially measured in quarters • Quarter 1 Jan/Feb/March • Quarter 2 April/May/June • Quarter 3 July/August/September • Quarter 4 Oct/Nov/Dec • The main form is the “expenditures” approach (add up C, Ig, G, Xn)

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) • GDP is the market value of all final goods and services produced within a nation in a year. (Production must take place ________) • GDP measures Aggregate Spending, Income and Output. Related to Aggregate Demand. • GNP is the market value of all final G & S produced using US-owned capital (Production can take place ____________)

Counted or Not Counted? • GDP counts all final, domestic production for which there is a market transaction in that year. (Unsold inventory is an exception. It DOES count) • Used and intermediate goods are not counted in order to avoid double-counting. • Gifts or transfers (private or public) not counted (Medicaid payments) • Underground or ‘black market’ activity is not counted.

Aggregate Expenditures ($15 Trillion as of 2nd Qtr 2011) • C = Consumption • IG = Gross Private Investment • G = Government Spending • XN= Net Exports = Exports (X) – Imports (M) • GDP = C + IG + G + XN • This is called the “Expenditures” Approach

Consumption ($10.7T; 71%) • Consumer spending on • Durable goods (cars, appliances…) • Non-durable goods (food, clothing…) • Services (plumbing, college…) • Does not include purchasing a house • Consumer spending is the largest component of U.S. GDP.

Gross Private Investment ($1.9 T; 13%) • Spending in order to increase future output or productivity • Business spending on capital (new factory equipment) • New construction • Unsold inventory of products built in a year • Construction of housing

Government Spending ($3 T; 20%) • All levels of government spending on final goods and services and infrastructure count toward GDP. • Government transfer payments do not count toward GDP (SS, Medicare, Medicaid, unemployment insurance)…WHY?

Net Exports ($-.6T; -4%) • Exports – Imports • X – M • Exports create a flow of money to the United States in exchange for domestic production. • Imports create a flow of money away from the United States in exchange for foreign production. • Post WWII, Xn has usually been a negative number (indicates we have a trade deficit)

What Else is Not Counted? • Stock/Equity purchases not counted • Equity is the value of an asset after debt • Unreported business activities (cash tips) • Financial transactions between banks • “Non market” activities like volunteer and family work

Counted or Not Counted? • Which of the following are counted or not counted in U.S. GDP and why? • New U.S. manufactured Goodyear tire sold to the General Motors Corporation • New U.S. manufactured Goodyear tire sold to Mr. Mitchell • Child care services provided for my daughter by the neighbor’s kid • I buy French cheese at HEB • A new Boeing 787 bought by American Airlines • New Tundra pick-up truck manufactured in San Antonio by Japanese firm Toyota.

Nominal v. Real GDP • Nominal GDP is current GDP measured at current market prices • Nominal GDP may overstate the value of production because of the effects of inflation

Nominal v. Real GDP • Real GDP is current GDP measured with a fixed dollar • Real GDP holds the value of the dollar constant and is useful for making year to year comparisons • Real GDP is the IMPORTANT ONE!!!

Changes in GDP • GDP is a measure of a nation’s prosperity and economic growth • As GDP grows the burden of scarcity is lessened for a society • GDP per capita provides a better measure of individual well-being than GDP

The Business Cycle The United States’ GDP is not constant from year to year. Instead, the GDP grows most years and then shrinks in some years or the growth lowers. The ups and downs in GDP over time is referred to as the business cycle.

The Business Cycle Illustrated:

The Business Cycle Illustrated: Peak temporary maximum in Real GDP. At this point the unemployment rate (u%) is probably below the natural rate of unemployment, and the inflation rate (π%) is probably increasing. Recession The contractionary phase of the business cycle. A period of decline in Real GDP accompanied by an increase in u%. To be classified as a recession, the economic decline must be at least 6 months long.

The Business Cycle Illustrated: • Trough • The bottom of the business cycle. The u% is probably high and π% is probably low. • Recovery • The phase of the business cycle where the economy is returning to full employment (5-6% unemployment) also known as the Natural Rate of Unemployment

The Business Cycle Illustrated: Important notes The various phases of the business cycle last for different amounts of time. In recent history, expansions have lasted years longer than have recessions. The Great Depression is the most notable example of a long recession/trough Business cycle is measured from trough to trough

The Business Cycle Illustrated: Causes Irregularity of Investment Changes in productivity Changes in total spending (aggregate demand) Durable goods manufacturing is most susceptible to the effects of the business cycle Business cycle has become less severe because of technological advancements in supply-chain management and structural changes in U.S. economy.

AP Macroeconomics