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SOCIAL SECURITY INCOME AND ELDERLY MORTALITY

SOCIAL SECURITY INCOME AND ELDERLY MORTALITY. Cristian Meghea, PhD (cristianm@acr.org) Research Department American College of Radiology, Reston, VA AcademyHealth Annual Research Meeting Seattle, June 2006. Pre-publication information. Please do not cite. 1. Introduction.

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SOCIAL SECURITY INCOME AND ELDERLY MORTALITY

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  1. SOCIAL SECURITY INCOME AND ELDERLY MORTALITY Cristian Meghea, PhD (cristianm@acr.org) Research Department American College of Radiology, Reston, VA AcademyHealth Annual Research Meeting Seattle, June 2006 Pre-publication information. Please do not cite

  2. 1. Introduction • Social Security reform: uncertainty of future retirement income • Effects of changes in social insurance on elderly well-being? • Previous studies: • Wealth improves health and lowers mortality • The effect weakens (disappears) at older ages

  3. 2. Introduction • Wealth influences health (mortality). Also, reverse causality from health to wealth • Difficult to separate the causal effect of wealth on health from the reversed effect of health on wealth • This study: the causal effect of Social Security income on elderly mortality

  4. 3. This study… • Natural experiment isolates the effect of income on mortality • Social Security spousal benefits of divorced women double if the ex passes away • Divorced retired women: fastest growing aged group, highest poverty, understudied

  5. 4. Social Security Admin. data • New Beneficiary Data System (NBDS), from the Social Security Administration • Wave 1: 1982 interview of “new beneficiaries” • Wave 2: 1991 follow-up interview of initial respondents • Matched Social Security administrative records

  6. 5. Method: I.V. and treatment effect • Dependent variable: ten-year mortality (1 if deceased in ten years, 0 otherwise) • I.V.: Instrumental variable estimation • All divorced women: instrument for the benefits using the death of the ex-husband • Treatment-control estimation • Divorced women receiving spousal benefits; ex-spouse deceased vs. ex-spouse alive

  7. 6. Correlation income-mortality All elderly: Probability(ten-year mortality)

  8. 7. Instrumental Variables All divorced women: Probability(ten-year mortality)

  9. 8. No effect of income on mortality • Instrumental variable, all elderly divorced women: no effect of income on mortality • Other explanatory variables: • White, older, worse health: higher mortality

  10. 9. Treatment/comparison analysis Divorced women, spousal benefits: P(ten-year mortality)

  11. 10. No effect of income on mortality • Divorced women receiving Social Security spousal benefits: no effect of income on mortality • Other explanatory variables: • Older, worse health: higher mortality

  12. 11. Summary: income and mortality • All elderly: no correlation between income and mortality • All elderly divorced women: no effect of income on mortality (IV technique) • Elderly divorced women receiving spousal benefits: no effect of income on mortality (treatment effect technique)

  13. 12. Implications • Better socioeconomic status may improve health at younger ages: policies are effective • If policies enhancing socioeconomic status come late in life: ineffective

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