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San Francisco DTA Model: Working Model Calibration Part 2: Results Renee Alsup

San Francisco DTA Model: Working Model Calibration Part 2: Results Renee Alsup. DTA Peer Review Panel Meeting July 25 th , 2012. Agenda. 9:00 Background 9:30 Technical Overview – Part 1 Development Process and Code Base/Network Development 10:15 Break 10:30 Technical Overview – Part 2

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San Francisco DTA Model: Working Model Calibration Part 2: Results Renee Alsup

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  1. San Francisco DTA Model: Working Model CalibrationPart 2: ResultsRenee Alsup SAN FRANCISCO COUNTY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY DTA Peer Review Panel Meeting July 25th, 2012

  2. SAN FRANCISCO COUNTY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY Agenda • 9:00 Background • 9:30 Technical Overview – Part 1 • Development Process and Code Base/Network Development • 10:15 Break • 10:30 Technical Overview – Part 2 • Calibration and Integration Strategies • 12:00 Working Lunch / Discussion • 2:00 Panel Caucus (closed) • 3:30 Panel report • 5:30 Adjourn

  3. Outline • Summary Results • Large Outliers • Select Link Analysis • Corridor Plots • Key Findings Results from July 11 Calibration Run (pb_july11_300p_FT )

  4. Summary Results

  5. Link Volumes

  6. Movement Volumes

  7. Time-of-Day

  8. Average Movement Volumes by Facility Type

  9. Average Movement Volumes by Turn Type

  10. Large Outliers

  11. Worst Links with Volume too Low

  12. Worst Links with Volume too High

  13. Speed Outliers • Broadway Tunnel- Free-flow speed is 25mph-30mph. The actual speed limit in the tunnel is 40mph. • Geneva from Ocean to Cayuga – Modeled free-flow speed is 10 mph higher than speed limit. • Solution: Fix free-flow speeds by making sure they fall in the right area type.

  14. Select Link Analysis

  15. I-80 EB Select Link (1/2) • As expected, much of thetraffic comes from freeways. • We also see a good amount of traffic taking Oak to get onto I-80 from the Western region and taking 1st St and 2nd St North of Market. Selected Link

  16. I-80 EB Select Link (2/2) Selected Link • 1st and 2nd Street are heavily used by people going from CBD to get onto the freeway. • Embarcadero is used, but less than 1st or 2nd St. • There isn’t a lot of traffic moving Eastward to get onto the freeway between I-80 and Market. People have mostly entered the freeway by then, or they move East while they are North of Market.

  17. I-80 EB On-Ramps • Most traffic gets to the on-ramps on 1st St, 2nd St and The Embarcadero • Vehicles further North are more likely to take Embarcadero South to get onto I-80 than to use the local streets

  18. I-80 WB Select Link Selected Link • Much of the traffic entering on I-80 is destined for the Southern region • Freeways take much of the traffic, but some takes Freemont to Pine or 9th St to Van Ness and Franklin

  19. I-80 WB On-Ramps • Most vehicles use the first ramp at Harrison & 4th • Because the first ramp isn’t congested very few vehicles continue on Harrison to second ramp Select Links

  20. 19th Ave NB • Most of the traffic on 19th Ave is just straight through on Hwy 1 • Very little traffic from here is going East or West – Sunset Blvd and Great Hwy used for traffic going West

  21. 19th Ave SB • Very similar to NB traffic pattern • Picks up some traffic in the park headed South

  22. Sunset Blvd NB • Almost no traffic going to the Golden Gate Bridge • Mostly trips from I-280 and Hwy 1 to local areas South of the park • Need to figure out why so few people are using Sunset to go through the park

  23. Sunset Blvd SB • Almost no traffic coming from Golden Gate Bridge. Mostly comes from South of the park • Significant amount of traffic from Lincoln Way coming over from the CBD on Fell

  24. Golden Gate Bridge Outbound • Origin of traffic seems evenly split between East and West regions • Significant number of trips on Geary between Hwy 1 and Franklin/Van Ness to change which entry point to the bridge is used

  25. Golden Gate Bridge Inbound • East/West split is similar to outbound • Don’t have people using Geary to move between East and West regions here • Very few vehicles going Southwest use any other path besides Hwy 1

  26. Corridor Plots

  27. Ocean: Miramar to 19th Ave Big drop at Junipero Serra

  28. Townsend: 2nd St to 7th St Vehicles turn left at 4th St to get to I-280 entrance ramps Big drop at Junipero Serra

  29. Key Findings

  30. Key Findings • The model is free from obvious gridlock • There generally appears to be less congestion than anticipated—perhaps due to the removal of the bus-only lanes • A number of outliers appear to be driven by specific network movements—such as freewayon-ramps

  31. Next Steps • Incorporate a network coding strategy for the bus-only lanes. • Incorporate the effect of slope into the speed-flow parameters based on additional analysis of the data collected. • Update the time-of-day profile of the demand to better match the higher volumes observed in the 5-6 pm hour. • Identify origins - destinations markets where SF-CHAMP is over- or under-estimating vehicle demand. • Deal with pedestrian/bicycle friction?

  32. Questions?

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