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Turbulence Diagnoses and Forecasts

Turbulence Diagnoses and Forecasts. Bob Sharman NCAR/RAL Weather in the Cockpit Workshop 8 August 2006. FAA AWRP Turbulence PDT work areas. Develop/implement in situ turbulence observations UAL, SWA, Delta Develop/implement remotely sensed turbulence observations

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Turbulence Diagnoses and Forecasts

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  1. Turbulence Diagnoses and Forecasts Bob Sharman NCAR/RAL Weather in the Cockpit Workshop 8 August 2006

  2. FAA AWRP Turbulence PDT work areas • Develop/implement in situ turbulence observations • UAL, SWA, Delta • Develop/implement remotely sensed turbulence observations • NEXRAD Turbulence Detection Algorithm (NTDA) • Develop turbulence nowcasting and forecasting systems • Graphical Turbulence Guidance (GTG) • GTGN • All products can be uplinked to the cockpit

  3. In situ turbulence measurement and reporting program Goal: To augment/replace subjective PIREPs with objective and precise turbulence measurements Features: • Automatically computes atmospheric turbulence intensities • Aircraft independent (eddy dissipation rate, EDR) • Automatically downloads data periodically during flight using ACARS network • Can convert EDR to aircraft loads and vice versa given information about aircraft • Adopted as ICAO Standard

  4. UAL in-situ compared to pireps

  5. NEXRAD in-cloud turbulence detection algorithm (NTDA) Graphic courtesy of virtualskies.arc.nasa.gov Cockpit display or radioed alert Dispatch, ATC, etc. TPAWS EDR In-cloud edr display NEXRAD or TDWR

  6. EXP TURB FI UAL███████████ -- 20 Oct 2005 22:08:57Z FL 360 orient. 95 deg 'X'=aircraft, '+'=waypoint, '*'=route ' '=no_data, 'o'=smooth, 'l'=light 'M'=mod, 'S'=severe ---------(36nm to COWES)--------------- llll l*MMMMMMll 112nm lll ll*llMMMMlll llM*MMMMMMMl 108nm llM*MMlMMMMM llM*MMlllMM 104nm lMM*llll Ml*l 100nm l**l ll ol l*ll 096nm llllllllll*lll llllllllllll*ll 092nm llllllllllll*ll l llllllllll l*ll llllllll 088nm lllllMllMMlll*l lllllllll lllMMMMMMll * lllllllllll 084nm llllMMMMMMM ** llllllllllllll lllllMMMMMMl *llllllllllllllll 080nm llllllMMMMM *llllllllllllllll llllMMlMMM l*lllllllllllllll 076nm ollMMMlll l l*lllllllllllllll ollMMMllllllM*llll lllllll +STL llllllllllMMl+lll lllllll ll lll Mll*lll llllll 068nm ll llllllMMll*lllM llllll lll lllllllll*llMM llllll 064nm lll llllllll*llMM llllll l ll llllllll*lMMM lllMll 060nm lll llllllllllM*MMM lllMMMl ll lllllllMMlM*M MMllMMMM 056nm Ml llllllMMlM*M MlMMMMMM M l llllllMMlM*Ml MMMMMMMMM 052nm l lllllllllllM*MlllMMMMMMMMMMM lll lllllllllllMM*MllMMMMMMMMMMMM 048nm lll lll ollllllMM*MllMMMSSMMMMMMM llM llloollllllll*llllMMSSMMMMMMM 044nm llMMMlllollllllll*llllMMMSSMMMMMM llMMM llll lllll*llllMMMMMMMlMMM 040nm M lllllllllll*lllllMMMMMllMMM lllMMlllllll*llllllMMMlllllM 036nm MMllMMll ll*llllllllllllllM MMMlMMll lll*lllllllllll 032nm MMMllllll ool*l lll llll MMMlllllllol*l l 028nm MMMllllllMMl* lMMlll MMl* 024nm M M * M * 020nm MMll * Mlllll ** MMM +WELTS llll + llMMM lll * llMMM 012nm ll * llMM * 008nm * * 004nm * * valid ----------------X---------------- 2205Z -40nm (39.0N, 92.1W) +40nm NTDA status • Ongoing verification against in situ data • Web-based display of NTDA product • Successful demonstration last summer of NTDA text graphic uplink to selected UAL aircraft with character printer severe NTDA edr contours In situ edr tracks SFO-BWI 20 Oct 05

  7. /EXPERIMENTAL TURBULENCE FI UAL███/AN N███UA UPLINK • -- 01 Jul 2006 22:08:10Z FL 360 orient. 88 deg • '+'=waypoint, '*'=route, 'X'=aircraft at 43.2N, 86.3W • ' '=no_data, 'o'=smooth, 'l'=light, 'M'=mod, 'S'=severe • ---------------------------(25 to EJOYS)------------------ • ll | * • lll | * • lll | * • lll | * • lll | * • lll | lllll* • lll l | ollll* • lll M | oolll*l • lll | llll * • lll +MONEE llllllll + • lll l | ll llllll * • lll l | llll lllllll*ll • lll l | oll lllllllll*ll • lll l | ool lllllllll * • lll | lllllll * • lll | llllll * • lll l | llllllll * • lll l | olllllllll * • lll l | ooo lllllll * • Mll | o lllllll * • lll | lllll * • lll | lloo * • lol | * • llo | * • llo | * • lll | * • lll l | ll * • lll l | lll * • lll l +GRUBB lll + • lll |040 ll * • ll | * • | * • | * • | * • | * • | * • | * • | * • | * • | * • | * • | * • | * • | * • | * • | * • | * • | * • | * • -------|---------valid----------X------------------------- • -90 +90|Left 40 2205Z (86 from BAE) Right 40 NTDA uplink message at 2208 UTC NTDA turbulence display at 2210 UTC Radar at ~2215 UTC (deviation began at 2213) View toward left at about 2215 UTC

  8. GTG4 GTG1 GTG3 GTG2 GTG4 GTG5 TPDT forecasting • Graphical Turbulence Guidance (GTG) forecast product • Combines many turbulence indicators + observations • Rapid updates • 4D gridded output • ADDS displays • GTG2 early 2007 • GTG3 early 2010

  9. Turbulence nowcasting - GTGN GTG 0-1 hr forecast Real-time pireps Lightning Real-time in situ data NTDA Real-time ACARS winds/temp Wind profilers 3D data cube of observed/inferred turbulence updated every few minutes Satellite features Metars

  10. Global GTG (TFO) • Uses NOAA’s GFS model • Diagnoses and forecasts of CAT > FL200 • Experimental product should be available by early 2008 • Example: • Upper: RUC20 • Lower: GFS

  11. 07/06/2005 CIT (>FL200 in situ)

  12. Summary • Enhanced situational awareness for tactical decisions about turbulence avoidance can be provided through uplinks to the cockpit • In situ + pireps • NTDA AVAILABLE NOW! • GTG • GTGN (~ 5-10 min update) • In-flight strategic planning can use GTG or TFO • Updated consistent with WRF, GFS forecast cycles • Probabilistic forecasts

  13. Demos…

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