1 / 36

The Economic Outlook & the Global Financial Crisis

The Economic Outlook & the Global Financial Crisis. Tasmanian Economic Forum Tony McDonald 4 December 2009. Outline. Pre-crisis Economic & Financial Market Conditions The Impact of the Global Financial Crisis The Policy Response to the Financial Crisis The Economic Outlook

lpepe
Download Presentation

The Economic Outlook & the Global Financial Crisis

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. The Economic Outlook &the Global Financial Crisis Tasmanian Economic Forum Tony McDonald 4 December 2009

  2. Outline • Pre-crisis Economic & Financial Market Conditions • The Impact of the Global Financial Crisis • The Policy Response to the Financial Crisis • The Economic Outlook • Tasmania and the Crisis • Medium term challenges and pressures

  3. Chart 1: World Economic Growth Source: IMF and Treasury.

  4. Chart 2: Merchandise World Trade Source: World Trade Organization (WTO)

  5. Chart 3: US & Australia Stock Prices Source: Thomson Reuters

  6. Chart 4: Corporate Bond Spreads Note: Find data that shows narrowing of spread, then widening, and then gradual reduction. Source: Bloomberg.

  7. Chart 5: Commodity Price Index Note: To be changed to RBA Commodity Price Index Source: Reserve Bank of Australia.

  8. Chart 6: Terms of Trade Note: Only latest forecast needed Source: ABS Catalogue Number 5302.0 and Treasury.

  9. Chart 7: Industrial Production United States euro area Other East Asia and Japan China Note: Other East Asia* excludes Vietnam, Hong Kong, China and Japan.Source: Relevant National Statistical Agencies and Treasury calculations.

  10. Chart 8: IMF 2009 GDP Growth Advanced World Source: International Monetary Fund.

  11. Chart 9: IMF research on dynamicsof recession and recovery Amplitude Duration Source: International Monetary Fund.

  12. Chart 10: Official Cash Rate Source: Reserve Bank of Australia and Treasury.

  13. Chart 11: Interest Rates Source: Reserve Bank of Australia and Treasury.

  14. Chart 12: Exchange Rates Source: Reserve Bank of Australia.

  15. Chart 13: Composition of stimulus Source: Treasury.

  16. Chart 14: Estimated Impact of Stimulus: GDP Forecasts Source: ABS Catalogue Number 5206.0 and Treasury.

  17. Chart 15: Estimated Impact of Stimulus: unemployment rate Forecasts Source: ABS Catalogue Number 6202.0 and Treasury.

  18. Chart 16: Contribution of fiscal stimulus to GDP Growth Source: Treasury.

  19. Chart 17: International Comparison of GDP growth (year to June 2009) Source: International Monetary Fund.

  20. Chart 18: Unemployment rate Note: Need to include OECD average Source: ABS Catalogue Number 6202.0, Thomson Reuters and Treasury.

  21. Chart 19: Confidence Consumers Businesses Source: Westpac-Melbourne Institute, National Australia Bank, DX and OECD.

  22. Chart 20: Retail Trade in Australia and major advanced economies Source: ABS Catalogue Number 8501.0 and Thomson Reuters.

  23. Chart 21: Australian Retail Trade Source: ABS Catalogue Number 8501.0.

  24. Chart 22: Construction Work Done Source: ABS Catalogue Number 8755.0.

  25. Chart 23: China GDP Source: CEIC China database and Treasury..

  26. Chart 24: GDP growth Source: ABS Catalogue Number 5206.0 and Treasury.

  27. Chart 25: Domestic Final Demand Source: ABS Catalogue Number 5206.0 and Treasury.

  28. Chart 26: Unemployment rate Source: ABS Catalogue Number 6202.0.

  29. Chart 27: Trend Unemployment Source: ABS Catalogue Number 6202.0.

  30. Chart 28: Gross Household disposable income per capita (current prices) Source: ABS Catalogue Number 5220.0.

  31. Chart 29: Employment to Population Ratio Source: ABS Catalogue Number 6202.0.

  32. Chart 30: Full Time Employment to Population Ratio Source: ABS Catalogue Number 6202.0.

  33. Chart 31: Observed Changes in Rainfall Reliability Source: Bureau of Rural Sciences.

  34. Chart 32: Population settlement patterns Source: Center for International Earth Science Information Network 2005, Columbia University;and Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical (CIAT). Gridded Population of the World,Version 3. Palisades, NY: CIESIN, Columbia University.

  35. Chart 33: China, India Convergence Source: The Conference Board Total Economy Database, IMF and Treasury.

  36. The Economic Outlook &the Global Financial Crisis Tasmanian Economic Forum Tony McDonald 4 December 2009

More Related