THE JOB GUARANTEE AND THE PUBLIC SPHERE

1. THE JOB GUARANTEE AND THE PUBLIC SPHERE PAVLINA R. TCHERNEVA Bard College & Levy Economics Institute 3rd International MMT conference Stony Brook, Sept 28, 2019

2. Pavlina R. Tcherneva, Sept 28, 2019 MMT • MMT and the mainstream • NAIRU • Fiscal Policy • The Job Guarantee conversation • GND • JG and caregivers

3. Pavlina R. Tcherneva, Sept 28, 2019 Insisting on unemployment • “We need the concept of a natural rate of unemployment. We need to have some sense of whether unemployment is high, low or just right”. - Jerome Powell (Jan 4, 2019 AEA)

4. Pavlina R. Tcherneva, Sept 28, 2019 Insisting on unemployment • “The relationship between the slack in the economy or unemployment and inflation …has gone away”… “At the end of the day, there has to be a connection because low employment will drive wages up and ultimately higher wages will drive inflation.” -Jerome Powell (Jul 10, 2019 Congressional Testimony) • Blanchard on the NAIRU: we don’t know if it’s a “causal relationship”

5. Pavlina R. Tcherneva, Sept 28, 2019 Missing the targets “Fed has no reliable theory of inflation, says Tarullo” – FT, Oct 4, 2017 And the NAIRU is a myth

6. Pavlina R. Tcherneva, Sept 28, 2019 What if we had a “benevolent” Fed?

7. Pavlina R. Tcherneva, Sept 28, 2019 The return of “Keynesian” fiscal policy • “unemployment insurance, nutrition assistance, basic temporary assistance, employment subsidies, tax policy, intergovernmental grants, and infrastructure spending—as automatic stabilizers.” • The Hamilton Project and Washington Center for Equitable Growth  • These are all “unemployment regimes”

8. Pavlina R. Tcherneva, Sept 28, 2019 In the public sphere • MMT and Monetary Policy • MMT and Fiscal Policy • Replace the “unemployment regime” with “jobs for all” regime • Replace unemployment stabilizers with full employment stabilizers • Job Guarantee PLUS

9. Pavlina R. Tcherneva, Sept 28, 2019 Job Guarantee PLUS • JOB GUARANTEE: • NAIRU alternative • Price anchor • Macro-stabilizer • Cornerstone of a Economic Bill of Rights • PLUS: • Resides within broader safety-net (resist the urge to sell it as panacea to all social ills) • Other anti-inflationary policies may be needed (resist the urge to sell it as panacea to all forms of inflation) • Critical piece of the Climate Response

10. Pavlina R. Tcherneva, Sept 28, 2019 The Green New Deal and the Job Guarantee The single most crucial aspect of the Green New Deal is its proposed job guarantee How shall we understand its many roles and meanings?

11. Pavlina R. Tcherneva, Sept 28, 2019 The Green New Deal and the Job Guarantee • Clarity of purpose • #1: All hands on deck industrial mobilization: guarantee that everyone will participate. The socialization of investment. • Job Guarantee with comparable income to miners • Income Guarantee with generous retirement to FF workers • #2Safety net: for the most vulnerable who are guaranteed a job in the green transition or in the green future. • #3Employment buffer stock: the business cycle will not end once we’ve cleaned up the environment

12. Pavlina R. Tcherneva, Sept 28, 2019 The Job Guarantee and Unpaid Care • Confusion over purpose • Yang: “The Job Guarantee does nothing for the stay at home caregiver” • Guaranteeing public education isn’t bad because it does nothing for the person who wants to homeschool their kids • Wiping out student debt isn’t bad because it does nothing for a person who has medical debt • But it is decidedly not true that JG does nothing for the caregiver.

13. Pavlina R. Tcherneva, Sept 28, 2019 The Job Guarantee and Unpaid Care • JG + BI • Universal child allowance • Wounded Veteran stay at home care • JG is itself care work • Alleviates the double burden of caregivers • Gives flex work/PT paid opportunities • Transition for caregivers • Other Considerations

14. Pavlina R. Tcherneva, Sept 28, 2019 THANK YOU