Learning from Programmatic Failures Paul Collopy paul.collopy@uah

1. Learning from Programmatic FailuresPaul Collopypaul.collopy@uah.edu

2. Learning from Programmatic Failures • What is a Programmatic Failure? • Should we be concerned? • What can we do?

3. What is a Programmatic Failure? Major Cost Overrun A Year or More Delay in Schedule Cancellation Due to Program or Performance

4. What is a Programmatic Failure? 90% of Current NASA Programs 80% of Current DoD Programs 2 of 2 Current NASA Programs 80% of Current DoD Programs Few NASA Programs 30% of DoD Programs Major Cost Overrun A Year or More Delay in Schedule Cancellation Due to Program or Performance

5. Should We Be Concerned? $200 B total overrun • DoD Programmatic Failures Cost ~ $150 million per day • On the order of the cost of the Iraq or the Afghanistan War • Pentagon estimates a $600 Billion LCC overrun for F-35 • Space Station cost 6 times the original estimate, excluding Shuttle Flight costs • Space Shuttle cost 3.5 times the original budget • $200 billion could have funded a manned mission to Mars • Overruns on the James Webb Space Telescope cost JPL its Mars Exploration program

6. Should We Be Concerned? $200 B total overrun We cannot manage complex design programs • DoD Programmatic Failures Cost ~ $150 million per day • On the order of the cost of the Iraq or the Afghanistan War • Pentagon estimates a $600 Billion LCC overrun for F-35 • Space Station cost 6 times the original estimate, excluding Shuttle Flight costs • Space Shuttle cost 3.5 times the original budget • $200 billion could have funded a manned mission to Mars • Overruns on the James Webb Space Telescope cost JPL its Mars Exploration program

7. What Can We Do? Everything Is Fine at PDR Our systems engineering process has failed us Biased cost estimates indicate an endogenous cost growth process Although we focus our process and research on conceptual and preliminary design, We need to fix the SE process for Detailed Design

8. 100 % Cost Committed 80 % Cost Incurred 20 % 0 % Concept Design Prelim Design Detailed Design Production Use and Dispose After illustration on the website of the Engineering Design Centre and Newcastle University

9. Systems Engineering during Detailed Design • Systems Engineering is the process that guides, coordinates, and facilitates Design Engineering • Guidance for Complex Systems • Coordination for Optimal Design • Facilitation – stay out of the way! • Guidance – Preferences • Coordination – Consistent Objective Functions • Facilitation – Minimal restrictions, constraints, requirements

10. Research on SE During Detailed Design

11. The Renaissance in Systems Engineering Systems Engineering Research has never been more critical to our nation’s future We need radical (getting to the root cause and fixing it) solutions to the most pressing problems This will necessitate re-thinking our current research agendae