Problem Solving

1. Problem Solving

2. Problem Solving Agenda • Quiz • Problem Solving methods and tools • Develop the Rational Problem Solving model

4. Quiz • From your readings and lecture • Closed book and neighbor • ~20 minutes • 15 questions • Quiz is worth 15 points

5. Problem Solving

6. Problem Solving • Problem solving is a process whereby a dilemma is identified and corrected.

7. Problem-Solving ModelUsing Critical Thinking Identify Alternatives w/+&-- Select Alternative w/Risk Mgt Implement Selected Alternative Identify Problem(s) Define Problem(s) Assess Results “CRITICAL THINKING” (Reason, Logic, Evidence) Ethical Considerations DIVERGENT THINKING • Creativity • Innovation CONVERGENT THINKING • Taking Action • Making Adjustments Challenging Assumptions Developing Alternatives *Adapted from Albrecht, K.G. (1992). Brain power. New York: Fireside Press.

8. Rational Problem Solving Model Awareness 1. Identify problem 6. Evaluate decision 2. Problem Clarification 5. Implement solution 3. Develop alternatives 4. Choose best solution

9. Sample Problem Solving Methods • Purposeful Inaction: a method whereby a problem is allowed to run a natural course. Used for insignificant problems. • Trial and Error: a method whereby one solution after another is tried until the problem is solved or appears to be improving. Used with lack of experience or time. • Experimentation: a method whereby a theory is tested to enhance knowledge, understanding or prediction. • Experimentation requires time and control. It is used when an idea or activity can be tested and objectively compared in one of two similar groups. • Rational Problem Solving: used for tame and some messy problems. Very linear and structured. (i.e. Step 1. State the problem; Step 2. Identify the alternatives, Step 3. Select the Optimal Alternative, Step 4. Implement the Solution; Step 5. Feedback; Step 6. Continue steps 1-5 if problem continues.) • System Thinking: holistic problem solving method often used to address wicked problems. Often used with project management approach. It is a framework for seeing relationships and patterns between all things. In organizational terms, the organization is the whole system and the functions and/or work processes represent subsystems.

10. Problem Solving – It Depends • The nature of identifying and solving a problem depends on the nature of the problem under consideration; as well as, you and your team’s affective disposition and ability and authority to solve the problem. • The length, rigor, characteristics, deliverables of the problem-solving process, vary with the degree of structure that the problem under consideration presents (i.e. tame, messy or wicked). • Some problems are easy to solve by your own ability and authority, others require teams and senior leadership support. • Some problems are unsolvable based on various constraints at that point in time.

11. Types of Problems • Well-structured problems: • Tame Problems • Ill-structured problems: • Messy Problems • Wicked Problems

12. Wicked BADLANDS Messy What kind of problems are we experiencing and what can we do to manage them? Tech Facts, Results Events, History, Statistics, Forces, Goals, Procedures, Phenomena, Observable Deviations, Time Factors, Trends, Productivity, Quality and Performance Levels Tame People Feelings, opinions, human factors, frictions, attitudes, satisfaction levels, stresses, frustrations, personality conflicts, behaviors, hearsay, intuition, “gut” reactions, mental blocks

13. Well-Structured (Tame) Problems • Routine, occurs frequently and lends itself to solution by habit, Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs). • Such solutions are usually stated and described in policy and procedure manuals, training materials, or any description of an organization’s workflow. • For example, putting a solicitation together, or issuing an admin mod. • The solution will be documented, distributed and followed by all appropriate personnel.

14. Tame Problem Outcomes and Output • The deliverable of the problem-solving process for well-structured problems is a plan; a plan for implementing the solution. • Once the implementation is complete, the solution is appraised and some fine-tuning may be needed. • For example, once the EOQ and re-ordering time frame are agreed and adopted, stock re-ordering will be monitored for its effectiveness and efficiency.

15. Ill –Structured Messy Problem Solving • A messy ill-structured problem is less routine, predictable and clear cut. The analysis of the environment in which such problems occur is either not stable enough to be evaluated, or its evaluation does not remain static once completed. • Problem-solving messy problems involves not only search for alternatives, but search for the problems themselves • For example, the problem of introducing a new product on the market is a problem that occurs in an environment of changing consumer attitudes, increasing consumer sophistication and shifting consumer loyalties.

16. Wicked Problems • At the end of the spectrum of ill-structured problems we find the wicked problems. They are called wicked because they defy conventional problem solving techniques. • One will not find documented solutions for such problems; they are instead tackled individually, by all the stakeholders, through some participative consultative process over a period of time. • It is common to find that when agreement among the involved parties is reached, it rarely maximizes the benefits of each involved party; it is rather the result of negotiation between all involved parties, agreeing to a solution that is most satisfying to each party involved.

17. Wanted: "Tools" for Solving Wicked Problems • The way people work together is unsystematic. Sometimes they work in sync. More often, each has a different focus and a very different view based on that focus. • People are expected to follow a structured approach to solving problems, even though it does not work, with the wicked problems they need to solve. • How do we 'solve' wicked problems?

18. Some Tools That Seem to Be Working for Many Organizations • Coaching • Systems Thinking • Project Management • Including the use of Integrated Project or Process Teams

19. Wicked Problem Tools: Coaching • Process Coaching — this type of coaching helps individuals work through a circumstance, situation or decision filled with complexity, conflicting agendas and needs of great personal and professional importance. • Content Coaching — this type of coaching helps individuals develop or enhance specific skills, abilities or expertise needed to remain or advance within their chosen professional field. • Leadership/Management Coaching — this type of coaching provides Leaders and Managers with a “safe harbor” to explore, discuss and rehab any style, skill or issue limiting their current performance, future success or career aspirations. • Entrepreneur / Executive Coaching — this type of coaching provides entrepreneurs and senior executives with an objective look at their skills, abilities and limitations. Those at the top have many critics, fewer trusted advisors and often no one willing or capable of helping them enhance, tweak or overhaul their leadership approach or people skills with complete confidentiality.

20. Wicked Problem Tools: Systems Thinking Understand problems within their systems • Systems thinking can be defined as a group of strategies to help you solve complex real-world problems. • A system is defined as "An organization or assemblage of things connected, associated, or interdependent, so as to form a complex unity; a whole composed of parts in orderly arrangement according to some scheme or plan." • Systems thinking can also be defined as holistic problem-solving. Holistic problem-solving looks at the whole situation--the system that surrounds a problem. • Tinkering with a problem without looking at the system surrounding it will likely prove ineffective, or even do more harm than good.

21. Wicked Problem Tools: Project Management • Project Management is also known as Matrix Management • Functional or Cross Functional Teams are created to fulfill specific requirements or tasks • Project management enables teams to focus on priorities, track performance, overcome difficulties and adapt to change. • Project management has proven to provide better control by using recognized and proven tools and techniques manage risk and help organizations reach objectives on time and within budgets.

22. Rational Problem Solving Model Awareness 1. Identify problem 6. Evaluate decision 2. Problem Clarification 5. Implement solution 3. Develop alternatives 4. Choose best solution

23. 1. Identify problem 2. Problem Clarification 6. Evaluate decision 3. Develop alternatives 5. Implement solution 4. Choose best solution • Is the problem sufficiently clear and understandable? • Is it measurable? • Does the statement explain how the problem impacts the total system? • Does the statement imply a gap between the current performance and the desired state?

24. Identify the Problem • Any problem-solving method begins with "Problem Identification". The first step is the most important! • Solutions will be incomplete unless you have first identfied the whole problem. • To understand the whole problem, first VISUALIZE it with a concept map. • Doing this will help you understand the big picture of a problem. Without a big picture in mind, we often will miss key dimensions of a problem. If we miss key dimensions, we're not likely to solve the problem because we haven't "covered all the bases."

25. The Problem Statement Hints The problem statement should be developed accurately and should clearly describe the current condition you want to change.  Consider the following: • Stated objectively • Simple statement of facts that are valid and sound • Written as a declarative statement with premises and a conclusion • Written as a gap analysis (from the current state to the future or goal state • It should include a statement of sustaining the future state • Everyone should be able to understand it • Do not slant the situation in favor of one approach or another, and should not leave room for interpretation • Don’t go into the why and how stuff – save that for the background discussion • Don’t discuss the assumptions and constraints in the problem statement • Do not write the statement as a question or a phrase but a complete argument

26. Desired End States Example 1: “The product selection process needs to be revamped and streamlined.” Example 2: “The advertising needs to focus on emphasizing how satisfied the majority of our customers are.” Example 3: “Competitor advertising and our recent product problem have reduced customer satisfaction.”

27. Examples • Problem Statement: Rock Island Arsenal is currently unable to meet the demand for small arms in the field. The impact is a severe shortage of serviceable weapons in theater, putting soldiers lives in danger. We need to develop, implement, and sustain a course of action to meet the Warfighter’s demand for small arms by the end of the fiscal year. • Problem Statement: Installation activities are going to other services for procurement of services and construction projects. The effect to our office is a loss of contract dollars and actions. Our challenge is to regain 25% of our lost customer business over the next two years.

28. A "Better” Problem Statement “The DAU Customer Satisfaction Index (CSI) for CON 353 as measured from “Metrics that Matter” has steadily declined from a 6.77 to 6.45 in the last 12 months (current state of the problem). Service training officers have complained about the course and requested leadership attention (impact). The CON 353 CSI will be at least 6.7 by the end of the first quarter 200X and will not decline thereafter.” (measurable desired end state).

29. 1. Identify problem 2. Problem Clarification 6. Evaluate decision 5. Implement solution 3. Develop alternatives 4. Choose best solution • Have you described the tools used to gather data? • Do you have data to document the problem? • Have you clarified who, what, why, where, and when? • Have you identified and prioritized the main (root) causes?

30. 1. Identify problem 2. Problem Clarification 6. Evaluate decision 3. Develop Alternatives 5. Implement solution 4. Choose best solution • Have you developed a list of possible strategies (solutions)? • Are these alternative strategies mutually exclusive? • Have you clarified how these strategies will improve the situation?

31. Brainstorm Solutions! • Brainstorming can be done either individually or in groups. This is the stage for all-out creative thinking. The task is to generate new ideas. Rules for brainstorming in groups help keeps the groups centered on creating rather than critiquing ideas. Let loose! • Generate as many solutions as possible • No criticism is allowed • Defer judgment until the next stage • Be creative, expansive and open to new ideas • Combine ideas. Build on the ideas of others • Ambiguity and uncertainty go with the territory • Exotic ideas are fine at this stage • Use cues to spur new ideas: • Scan your class materials • Review your class notes • Look at a reference materials • Look at visuals • Search the Internet

32. Questions to ask about the ALTERNATIVES • Does it relate to the current statement and desired end state? Gap analysis. • Is it attainable in the short or long term? • Does it avoid creating even more or worse problems? • Did you consider leaving it as it is? • Is your list comprehensive enough but not too long? • What alternatives can you discard w/o negatively impacting creativity?

33. 1. Identify problem 2. Problem Clarification 6. Evaluate decision 4. Choose Best Solution 3. Develop alternatives 5. Implement solution • Is the solution possible, cost effective, and will it improve processes? • Have you described the criteria used to select this solution over the other alternatives? • Have you considered whether it will be necessary to test the solution before full implementation? • Have you considered how this solution will prevent the problem from reoccurring?

34. No One is Rational All the TimeSometimes We All “Satisfice” • Some problems don’t have a one perfect alternative or solution. Need to choose an alternative that meets at least, the minimum level of acceptability. “SATISFICE” = SATISFy + sacriFICE • Satisficing occurs when we consider our alternatives. When we select one that is “good enough” we often regard ourselves as having finished deliberations. It may not be the best alternative among the options available.

35. Choosing the Best Solution • Determine what are the most important factors or risk drivers as criteria (Cost, schedule, performance {CSP}, quality, feasibility, risk, ROI, standards, best practices, regulations, etc). • Select rating criteria based on these standards. • Develop a logical, consistent rating scheme (numbers, adjectives, colors, etc.) for these criteria. • Rate each alternatives’ criteria. • Document those ratings that are significant/unacceptable (i.e. RED or UNSAT) or not obvious/complicated.

36. Choosing the Best Solution • Roll-up all the ratings for each alternative into one rating. • Rank the alternatives based on the roll-up rating. • Group the ranked alternatives into favorable and non-favorable categories for recommendation. • Recommend the best alternatives as a solution. • Consider phases for implementing multiple recommendations. • Validate that the recommendations make sense and change the scheme if required.

37. Numeric Approaches • Use ratio scale weights and scores • Works well for engineering style problems • Downsides • Numeric weights and scores are simply not credible for operational and strategic COAs • Rules of arithmetic are not optional • Vulnerable to junk math • Upsides • Fast (avoid thinking) • Disguise ambiguity • Gain spurious certainty

38. Try to Use a Qualitative Approach • Use Professional Judgment, Logic and English • Identifies advantages and disadvantages of selected COA • Downsides • Takes time • You must think • Can’t hide behind bogus numbers • Upsides • Does not hide ambiguity and uncertainty • More informatively compares COAs against each other than numeric approaches • Efficient method of comparison and modification of COAs • It is a thinking tool to assist you to • justify advantages and disadvantages of COAs • compare the advantages and disadvantages, and • recommend the decision

39. Advantages / Disadvantages Matrix • Do the analysis for each COA • Summarize analysis of all COAs • Use narrative text, not “Pentagonese” and not numeric scores • Use your professional judgment to select a COA • Warning! Risk of “satisficing” exists

40. Present to Boss • Present a summary of the recommended COA • Capture critical advantages and disadvantages • Organized by Governing Factor or Criterion • Capture Actions to mitigate disadvantages and risks • Explain why recommended COA better than the others • Be prepared to brief entire Advantages / Disadvantages matrix if Boss wants to drill down

41. Examples of Selection Criteria • Cost to Implement (15%) • 1 = Greatest 5 = Least • Management Buy-in (30%) • 1 = Least Favorable 5 = Most Favorable • Ease of Implementation (15%) • 1 = Most Difficult 5 = Least Difficult • Customer Satisfaction (40%) • 1= Least Satisfied 5 = Most Satisfied

42. Criteria  Alternative Cost Risk Implementation Risk Performance/Risk Summary ALT 1 ALT 2 ALT 3 ALT 4 Evaluation of Alternatives LEGEND: H-High RiskM-Medium RiskL-Low Risk (equally weighted)

43. Example Evaluation Matrix Sustainabilityof Solution >> Ease of Implementation Cost of Implementation OVERALL > Alt 1 GOOD SAT GOOD EXCELLENT Alt 2 GOOD SAT GOOD EXCELLENT GOOD Alt 3 SAT SAT SAT > > = Significantly more important than 43 > = More important than

44. Example Evaluation Matrix

45. Example Evaluation Matrix

46. Example Evaluation Matrix

47. Choosing the Best Solution What is an example in contracting that is very similar to choosing the best solution?

48. Source Selection AREA TECHNICAL MANAGEMENT COST Item A Systems Engineering Development Software Management Cost Reporting Facility Provision Factor Soundness of Approach G B G Y G G G $ Proposal Risk Low Mod Mod Low Low Low Past Perf. Risk Low Moderate High B Soundness of Approach G G G B G G G $ Proposal Risk Low Mod Mod Low Low Low Past Perf. Risk Low High High

49. Business Decision Point Paper Outline (2-3 Pgs) • Problem Statement Concise, relevant three sentences explicitly stating the problem/impact/end-state. • Discussion (The following are examples, not a rigid list) • Background (Awareness of the scope, implications and issues associated with the problem) • Key Actors (Stakeholders) • Assumptions & Constraints • Cause and Effect; Impact of Problem on Mission • Evidence, Facts, Supporting Data, etc. • Alternatives List and Explain Alternatives

50. Business Decision Point Paper Outline (cont) • Criteria for Selecting Alternative Recommendation • Criteria for selecting which Alternative. Major drivers or risk factors affecting alternative selected (Cost, Schedule, Performance, Resources, Standards, Best Practices, Regulations, Statutes, Technical, Quality, ROI, etc.) • Rate and Explain Each Alternative Based on Criteria • Recommendation • State recommendation(s) and how you chose based on your ratings, roll-up, ranking and grouping. • Identify driving forces facilitating or constraining the recommendation(s) being implemented.