Early Decision Making Early Help & Early Warning Signs

1. Early Decision MakingEarly Help &Early Warning Signs Leisa Gallagher Director, Reaching & Teaching Struggling Learners Coordinator, Superintendent’s Dropout Challenge

2. 3 2 1 Grounding Activity • 3 things your building has done to add relevance to students’ educational plan • 2 non-academic data sources that your buildings use to help students stay on track • 1 miracle story about a student who beat the odds and had a positive post-secondary outcome

3. As a group, can you determine: • The 3rd , 8th, and 11th grade proficiency level for youth with IEPs in math? In literacy? • What is the state cohort dropout rate for all students? And the cohort rate for youth with IEPs?

4. The previous metrics beg for a cluster of data that describes the whole child-Early Warning Signs • At the state level, how many days of instruction were lost to suspension/expulsion decisions? • At the local level, how do we operationalize behavior? Office Disciplinary Referrals (ODRs)

5. These questions cluster into three areas, the ABCs, called the Early Warning Signs • A-Attendance-measured differently at the elementary and secondary level • B-Behavior-measured in Office Disciplinary Referrals-ODRs • C-Course Proficiency-measured in grade points, failure, and curriculum benchmark scores

6. The EWSs are as predictive and reliable for youth with IEPs as they are for their peers • 10 days of absence in 30- 80% likelihood of failure to dropout • 2 days absence in September 65% likelihood to be chronically absent • 1 fail in core course in first marking period in 9th grade-80% likelihood of failure not to graduate in 4 years • Retention due to behavior in middle school, risk of dropping out • GPA below 1.2 in first marking period of 9th grade, 80% risk of not graduating in 4 years

7. Deepest risk of Dropping Out • Two grade levels below proficiency in 6th grade • Children with an emotional impairment • Children of color, living in generational poverty with an emotional impairment

8. GPA, Course Fails, and Attendance Reveal…. Recent research available at National High School Center indicates: • With 90% accuracy we can predict a freshman will graduate in four years based on the early warning signs. • With 80% accuracy, we can predict which freshman will take more than 4 years or will dropout.

9. Early Warning Signs of Dropout: • Attendance-80/85/90%, absent 10 days in first 30 days of school • Behavior-0-1/2/3 office disciplinary referrals (ODRs) • Course Proficiency- fail in core course in first marking period, 2 fails in two courses

10. Within a cradle to career framework, focus on middle schools…. • http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/education/dropout-nation/middle-school-moment/

11. Let’s look at the Early Warning Sign Tool for Middle and High School • Customizable • Holds Interventions and Risks • Works for an individual, for a group, and for a grade level of students • Free for everyone

12. IES Practice Guide Recommendations (within and Response to Intervention framework) • Use of Longitudinal Data • Support for Social and Emotional Skills • Use of Adult Advocate • Personalized Learning Environment and Instruction • Academic Supports and Enhancements • Rigor and Relevance (Career and College Readiness)

13. As you watched the Frontline clip, list practices you noticed • Use of an adult advocate • Use of longitudinal data-attendance, behavior, course proficiency • Use of academic supports and enhancements • Use of social and emotional supports • Use of rigorous and relevant curriculum (career and college ready) • Use of personalized learning strategies

14. Let’s look at the Early Warning Sign Tool for Middle and High School • Customizable • Holds Interventions and Risks • Works for an individual, for a group, and for a grade level of students • Free for everyone

15. Falling off track in 9th grade…. 4 reasons youth drop out of school • Attraction to risk: drugs, criminal behavior & violence • Academic frustration • Bureaucratic organization of the school • Lifestyle reasons: teen pregnancy, employment to support the family

16. The organizational design is an area within our sphere of influence:

17. NHSC recommended practices to support Youth with IEPs • Family Engagement • Community Engagement • Tiered Approaches • Tutoring as an academic support

18. NHSC recommended practices to support Youth with IEPs • Advisories and team teaching • Small learning communities and personalization • Partnerships between high schools and feeder schools • 9th grade transition programs

19. NHSC recommended practices to support Youth with IEPs • Achievement in core courses • Career and college readiness • Content recovery courses • Support for students with IEPs outside of school

20. Take a look the outcomes…. • What observations do you have about exit data?

21. Resources • IES Practice Guide: Dropout Prevention http://ies.ed.gov/ncee/wwc/pdf/practice_guides/dp_pg_090308.pdf • Middle School Early Warning Sign System http://www.betterhighschools.org/EWS_middle.asp • High School Early Warning Sign System http://www.betterhighschools.org/EWS_tool.asp

22. Contact Information Leisa Gallagher Coordinator, Superintendent’s Dropout Challenge MDE Director of Reaching and Teaching Struggling Learners, MDE-OSE • E-mail lgallagher@cenmi.org • Work phone 517-908-3921 • Cell phone preferred 616-446-6115