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Sub-seasonal prediction at ECMWF

Sub-seasonal prediction at ECMWF. Fr é d é ric Vitart European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. ECMWF: Weather and Climate Dynamical Forecasts. Seasonal Forecasts Month 2-7. Medium-Range Forecasts Day 1-10(15). Monthly Forecast Day 10-32. Product.

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Sub-seasonal prediction at ECMWF

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  1. Sub-seasonal prediction at ECMWF Frédéric Vitart European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

  2. ECMWF: Weather and Climate Dynamical Forecasts Seasonal Forecasts Month 2-7 Medium-Range Forecasts Day 1-10(15) Monthly Forecast Day 10-32 Product Forecasting systems at ECMWF

  3. The ECMWF monthly forecasting system • A 51-member ensemble is integrated for 32 days twice a week (Mondays and Thursdays at 00Z) • Atmospheric component: IFS with the latest operational cycle and with a T639L62 resolution till day 10 and T319L62 after day 10. • Persisted SST anomalies till day 10 and ocean-atmosphere coupling from day 10 till day 32. • Oceanic component: NEMO with a zonal resolution of about 1 degree. • Coupling: OASIS (CERFACS). Coupling every 3 hours.

  4. The ECMWF VarEPS-monthly forecasting system Current system (twice a week, 51 ensemble members): EPS Integration at T639 Initial condition Day 10 Heat flux, Wind stress, P-E Day 32 Day 9 Coupled forecast at TL319 Ocean only integration

  5. The ECMWF monthly forecasting system • Atmospheric initial conditions: ECMWF operationalanalysis • Oceanic initial conditions: “Accelerated” ocean analysis • Perturbations: • Atmosphere: Singular vectors + stochastic physics + EDA • Ocean: Wind stress perturbations during the data assimilation

  6. The ECMWF monthly forecasting system • Background statistics: • 5-member ensemble integrated at the same day and same month as the real-time time forecast over the past 18 years (a total of 90 member ensemble) • Initial conditions: ERA Interim • It runs once a week

  7. The ECMWF monthly forecasting system Anomalies (temperature, precipitation..) -

  8. The ECMWF monthly forecasting system Probabilities (temperature, precipitation..) -

  9. The ECMWF monthly forecasting system

  10. The ECMWF monthly forecasting system

  11. The ECMWF monthly forecasting system Experimental product: Tropical cyclone activity

  12. Skill of the ECMWF Monthly Forecasting System ROC score: 2-meter temperature in the upper tercile Day 5-11 Day 12-18 Day 26-32 Day 19-25

  13. RPSS Scores Hindcasts (1995-2001) - NH DAY 5-11

  14. RPSS Scores Hindcasts (1995-2001) - NH DAY 5-11 DAY 12-18 DAY 19-25 DAY 26-32

  15. ROC Scores - Tropics Day 5-11 Day 12-18 Day 19-25 Day 26-32

  16. MJO skill scores and amplitude

  17. Future Plans • Use of new soil initial condition and SSTs for hindcasts. • Extend hindcast length from 18 to 20 years • Increase vertical resolution from 62 levels to ~92 vertical levels • Sea-ice model • Ocean/atmosphere Coupling from day 0 • Extend forecast range to 46-60 days

  18. Performance of the monthly Forecasts Day 12-18 Day 26-32 Day 19-25

  19. Precip anomalies : 26 July 2010 – 01 August 2010

  20. Precipitation over Pakistan Averaged over (34-25N 60-73E) : Days 12-18 Days 19-25 Verifying weeks: 3-9 May to 16-22 Aug 2010.

  21. Pakistan Floods – Sept 2011

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