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- TRED Study Overview-

- TRED Study Overview-. Director Jim Lynch Montana Department of Transportation January 28, 2006 Glasgow, MT. Goals. Provide Information on the US 2/MT 16 TRED Study Describe the Process Identify Next Steps. R egional. E conomic. T ransportation. D evelopment.

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- TRED Study Overview-

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  1. -TRED Study Overview- Director Jim Lynch Montana Department of Transportation January 28, 2006 Glasgow, MT

  2. Goals • Provide Information on the US 2/MT 16 TRED Study • Describe the Process • Identify Next Steps

  3. Regional Economic Transportation Development What is the “TRED” Study?? Study of US 2 and MT 16 segments of Theodore Roosevelt Expressway in Montana

  4. TRED Study Purpose • Purpose: • Identify economic, regulatory, or operational changes that would result in traffic and safety conditions that justify 4 lanes on the Theodore Roosevelt Expressway in Montana.

  5. Study Corridor What Area Does the Study Cover?

  6. Relationship to Federal Environmental Review Requirements (NEPA) • TRED Study is Pre-NEPA • ND US 2 EIS & MT US 2 Havre-Fort Belknap EIS were NEPA • If TRED shows high probability of traffic to warrant a four lane - then- • Next step is NEPA -- using TRED results for Federally required “purpose and need”

  7. Why this Corridor?? • August 2005 Congressional Action named MT 16 and US 2 east from Culbertson as segments of Theodore Roosevelt Expressway “High Priority Corridor” The entire corridor begins in Port of Laredo Texas and ends at the Port of Raymond, MT

  8. Why this Corridor?? • The corridor provides regional connectivity and mobility with North Dakota and Saskatchewan • If expanding the corridor to a 4-lane is justified, the US 2 section of the Theodore Roosevelt Expressway may be the best place to start

  9. TREDEconomic Analysis • GOAL: What is the probability future traffic (especially commercial) will be high enough to justify a 4-lane to meet safety and capacity needs? STEPS in Economic Analysis • Study Existing condition Feb – June • Corridor Operations • Existing Economic Development Plans / Opportunities

  10. Steps in TRED Analysis Next: • Build a 30-year traffic/freight model Apr – June • Model will not be a “black box” • Model will be customized for MT and TRED study area • Load existing condition information • Calibrate model for two different alternatives • Modern 2-lane • 4-lane

  11. Steps in TRED Analysis con’t Sensitivity and Risk AnalysisJuly and August • Identify and Test model against future scenarios • Determine probability of changes in traffic volumes based on scenarios • Input from Expert Panel on rural economics • Conclusions and Recommendations End of October

  12. Future Scenario & Sensitivity Tests • Will truck volumes increase if..... • Crude oil stays high and exploration continues • Grain moves from rail to truck • Coal to fuel conversion technology is deployed • Grain shipment is further consolidated and trucks travel further on TRE • A 4-lane is built across MT and ND????? • What is the probability of each scenario? • The public will help define the scenarios

  13. Results of Sensitivity Tests • Incremental freight movements in study area ++ normal growth in traffic • ++ Incremental freight increases on US 2 • ++ Anticipated reduced safety and degradation of Level of Service (LOS) • ++ Risk-adjusted traffic & LOS = Cumulative, potential need to add lanes

  14. Other What does this mean? Example * * Probability of diverting traffic from I 90 Probability crude oil will force continued exploration = ? * Probability manufactured goods will cross at Raymond if size/wgts change in MT WHAT IS THE PROBABILITY A 4-LANE IS NEEDED FOR SAFETY AND TRAFFIC

  15. End Result is a Central Forecastand Probability of Achieving Alternate Scenarios

  16. Why Focus on Traffic and Safety? • Potential economic development was not a factor in the selection of the preferred ND 4-lane alternative by FHWA. Safety and capacity issues related to military convoys were major factors in selection. • Traffic and safety issues can stand the test with permitting agencies.

  17. Why Focus on Commercial Traffic? • Speed differential between trucks and cars causes reduced level of service • Commercial trucks are weighted more heavily in level of service calculations

  18. Where will the Data Come From? • Existing regional economic conditions and opportunities • Interviews with Ag. Groups, Commercial transport companies • Scope: • Northern Great Plains of Eastern MT & Western NS/SD & Southern Saskatchewan • Meetings with elected officials, commercial shippers, general public • Questionnaires • Surveys • Known economic development plans • Sectors: oil/gas, grain production, rail, tourism, • other?

  19. Who Will Conduct the Study? • MDT lead and final decision-maker • But- results will have to stand up in a NEPA process where Federal agencies decide • Consultant firm (HDR) with engineers, planners, & economists with international experience in transportation and economic development

  20. Outreach • MDT has already reached out to ND, SD, and Saskatchewan • Kick-off Meeting First week in March • Public Meeting Late June • Stakeholder Workshop Early August • Goal: bring interested parties and experts together to Assess findings and help analyze risk

  21. Outreach cont. • Economic Analysis Public Involvement Open HouseMid – August • 2nd Stakeholder workshop on Conclusions and RecommendationsLate September • 2nd Public Open HouseEarly October

  22. Next Steps • There will be a kick-off meeting in early March.. • Location??? • A web site regarding the study will soon be available …. Sign up and we will contact you. • Let us know if you want to be involved

  23. Contacts • MDT • Dick Turner, Multimodal Bureau Chief • 406 - 444 - 7289 • HDR – Consultant Team • Don Galligan, HDR Boise Idaho • 208 - 387 - 7058

  24. Questions??

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