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The Future of Election Reform (in light of the 2012 elections)

The Future of Election Reform (in light of the 2012 elections). Ned Foley & Steven Huefner The Ohio State University Moritz College of Law Election Law @ Moritz www.electionlaw.osu.edu. The Future of Election Reform. * Early and Absentee Voting in 2012 Trends and Trade-offs

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The Future of Election Reform (in light of the 2012 elections)

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  1. The Future of Election Reform(in light of the 2012 elections) Ned Foley & Steven Huefner The Ohio State University Moritz College of Law Election Law @ Moritz www.electionlaw.osu.edu

  2. The Future of Election Reform * Early and Absentee Voting in 2012 Trends and Trade-offs * Long Lines at Polling Places in 2012 Nature and Extent of Problem * Post-election Considerations The “Blue Shift” and Its Implications * Reform Prospects and Obstacles

  3. Early and AbsenteeVoting in 2012 Trends and Tradeoffs

  4. [courtesy Charles Stewart, MIT]

  5. [courtesy Charles Stewart, MIT]

  6. [courtesy Charles Stewart, MIT]

  7. Modes of Voting – 2000 [courtesy Charles Stewart, MIT] 2000 (CPS)

  8. Modes of Voting – 2012 [courtesy Charles Stewart, MIT] 2012 (SPAE)

  9. Long Lines atPolling Places in 2012 Nature and Extent of Problem

  10. 13 min = avg. Election Day wait 63% said most of this time was waiting to check in [20 min = avg. early voting wait] [courtesy Charles Stewart, MIT]

  11. How Long Did People Wait? [courtesy Charles Stewart, MIT]

  12. How Long Did People Wait? Average waiting time for the 3% who waited more than an hour = 129 minutes

  13. [courtesy Charles Stewart, MIT]

  14. Post-Election Considerations The “Blue Shift” andIts Implications

  15. Swing State Gains

  16. Blue Gain States v. Red Gain States

  17. 1960 Election Gains

  18. Uncounted ballots: Ohio, 2008 & 2012 *2008 includes both wrong location and right location **2012 is only wrong location, because of court order on right location ballots *** envelope unsigned, or lacking printed name, or both

  19. Uncounted (& Disputable) Ballots All Ohio numbers from Secretary of State website; 12 Florida from new Smith/Herron data; 08 Florida is domestic only, as reported in EAC Election Day Survey

  20. 2008

  21. 2008 provisional ballots

  22. X(PB cast rate), Y(PBs rejected/all ballots)

  23. Y(PBs counted/PBs cast) X(PB cast/all ballots)

  24. Y(PBs counted/all ballots) X(PBs cast/all ballots)

  25. Y(“gain during canvass”) X(PBs cast/all ballots)

  26. X(absentee cast rate)/Y(“gain”)

  27. X(ABR+PBR)/Y(“gain”)

  28. X(ABR*PBR)/Y(“gain”)

  29. Evaluating DemocracyPew Election Performance Index

  30. Reform Prospects and Obstacles

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