Tom Peters’ Re-Imagine! Business Excellence in a Disruptive Age 02.07.2004

1. Tom Peters’ Re-Imagine!Business Excellence in a Disruptive Age02.07.2004

2. Slides at …tompeters.com

3. I. NEW BUSINESS. NEW CONTEXT.

4. “Uncertainty is the only thing to be sure of.”—Anthony Muh,head of investment in Asia, Citigroup Asset Management“If you don’t like change, you’re going to like irrelevance even less.”—General Eric Shinseki, Chief of Staff, U. S. Army

5. All Bets Are Off.

6. Jobs TechnologyGlobalization War, Warfighting & Security

7. JobsNew TechnologyGlobalization War, Warfighting & Security

8. “Behind Surging Productivity: The Service Sector Delivers. Firms Once Thought Immune to Boosting Worker Output Are Now Big Part of the Trend”—Headline/WSJ/11.03

9. “As Economy Gains, Outsourcing Surges”—Headline/Boston Globe/11.03

10. 1 in 10 tech jobs headed offshore by end of 2004.Source: Gartner Group/06.03

11. “14MILLION service jobs are in danger of being shipped overseas”—The Dobbs Report/USN&WR/11.03/re new UCB study

12. “One Singaporean workercosts as much as …3 … in Malaysia 8 … in Thailand 13 … in China 18 … in India.”Source: The Straits Times/08.18.03

13. “The proper role of a healthily functioning economy is to destroy jobs and to put labor to use elsewhere. Despite this truth, layoffs and firings will always sting, as if the invisible hand of free enterprise has slapped workers in the face.” —Joseph Schumpeter

14. --79% of U.S. jobs in “structurally changed professions” (“permanently eliminated jobs”)(40K of 160K U.S. IBM)--”As we trade we release more labor from the service sector because our highly skilled and highly paid workers lose their competitive advantage. So we go to the next big thing. We specialize in innovation. We develop new products and start new industries.” (Erica Groshen, labor economist Fed of NY)Source: CNN/Money/01.07.2004

15. “There is no job that is America’s God-given right anymore.”—Carly Fiorina/ HP/ 01.08.2004

16. “WHAT ARE PEOPLE GOING TO DO WITH THEMSELVES?”—Headline/ Fortune/ 11.03 (“We should finally admit that we do not and cannot know, and regard that fact with serenity rather than anxiety.”)

17. “Either we modernize or we will be modernized by the unremitting force of the markets.”—Gerhard Schroeder

18. JobsTechnologyGlobalization War, Warfighting & Security

19. <1000A.D.: paradigm shift: 1000s of years1000: 100 years for paradigm shift1800s: > prior 900 years1900s: 1st 20 years > 1800s2000: 10 years for paradigm shift21st century: 1000Xtech change than 20th century (“the ‘Singularity,’ a merger between humans and computers that is so rapid and profound it represents a rupture in the fabric of human history”)Ray Kurzweil

20. Vernor Vinge/Mr. Singularity“The transition time from human history to post-human singularity time, Vinge thinks, will be astonishingly short—maybe one hundred hours from the first moment of computer self-awareness to computer world conquest.”—Esquire/12.2002

21. “We found that the pace of development from one societal type to another is accelerating. The agricultural society originated 10,000 years ago, the industrial society between 200 and 100 years ago, the information-based society 20 years ago.”—Rolf Jensen/The Dream Society: How the Coming Shift from Information to Imagination Will Transform Your Business

22. “I genuinely believe we are living through the greatest intellectual moment in history.”Matt Ridley, Genome

23. “In 25 years, you’ll probably be able to get the sum total of all human knowledge on a personal device.”Greg Blonder, VC [was Chief Technical Adviser for Corporate Strategy @ AT&T] [Barron’s 11.13.2000]

24. “A California biotechnology company has put the entire sequence of the human genome on a single chip, allowing researchers to conduct on the complex relationships between the 30,000 genes that make up a human being in a single experiment.”—Page 1, Financial Times/10.03.2003

25. Sequenom/David Ewing Duncan/Wired11.02“Sequenom has industrialized the SNP [single nucleotide polymorphisms] identification process.” “This, I’m told, is the first time a healthy human has ever been screened for the full gamut of genetic-disease markers.” “On the horizon: multi-disease gene kits, available at Wal*Mart, as easy to use as home-pregnancy tests.” “You can’t look at humanity separate from machines; we’re so intertwined we’re almost the same species, and the difference is getting smaller.”

26. “Help! There’s nobody in the cockpit. In the future, will the airlines no longer need pilots?”Grumman Global Hawk/ 24 hours/ Edwards to South AustraliaSource: The Economist/12.21.2002

27. “There’s going to be a fundamental change in the global economy unlike anything we have hadsince the cavemen began bartering.”Arnold Baker, Chief Economist, Sandia National Laboratories

28. “UPS used to be a trucking company with technology. Now it’s a technology company with trucks.”—Forbes, upon naming UPS “Company of the Year” in Y2000

29. JobsTechnologyGlobalization War, Warfighting & Security

30. “The World Must Learn to Live with a Wide-awake China”—Headline/FT/11.03

31. “Asia’s rise is the economic event of our age. Should it proceed as it has over the last few decades, it will bring the two centuries of global domination by Europe and, subsequently, its giant North American offshoot to an end.” —Financial Times (09.22.2003)

32. “The world has arrived at a rare strategic inflection point where nearly half its population—living in China, India and Russia—have been integrated into the global market economy, many of them highly educated workers, who can do just about any job in the world. We’re talking about three billion people.”—Craig Barrett/Intel/01.08.2004

33. Cost of a Programmer, per IBM …China: $12.50 per hourUSA: $56 per hourSource: WSJ/01.19.2004

34. China Roars!

35. “China has become a manufacturing hub for the rest of the world in low-end labor-intensive goods—and the rest of the world is becoming a manufacturing hub for China in high-end, capital-intensive goods. … China may be a threat to certain parts of the global supply chain that rely on low-cost labor, but it represents an even greater opportunity via production-efficiency gains, economic welfare gains and long-term dynamic potential. Its booming exports are more than matched by booming industrial imports and foreign investment opportunities. It has become the new engine of global growth.”Source: Glen Hodgson & Mark Worrall/Export Development Canada, in “China Takes Off”, David Hale & Lyric Hughes Hale/Foreign Affairs/Nov-Dec2003

36. 1990-2003: Exports 8X ($380B); 6% global exports 2003 vs. 3.9% 2000; 16% of Total Global Growth in 2002.Source: “China Takes Off”, David Hale & Lyric Hughes Hale/Foreign Affairs/Nov-Dec2003

37. 1998-2003: 45,000,000 layoffs in state sector; offset by $450B in foreign investment; foreign companies account for 50+% of exports vs. 31% in Mexico, 15% in Korea.Source: “China Takes Off”, David Hale & Lyric Hughes Hale/Foreign Affairs/Nov-Dec2003

38. 50% of output from private firms, 37% from state-owned firms; 80% of workforce (incl. rural) now in private employ.Source: “China Takes Off”, David Hale & Lyric Hughes Hale/Foreign Affairs/Nov-Dec2003

39. Population growth = 1%; two-thirds of housing privately owned, 90% of urban Chinese own a home (vs. 61% in Japan)Source: “China Takes Off”, David Hale & Lyric Hughes Hale/Foreign Affairs/Nov-Dec2003

40. 200 cities with >1,000,000 population.Source: “China Takes Off”, David Hale & Lyric Hughes Hale/Foreign Affairs/Nov-Dec2003

41. 200,000,000 unemployed; must create 20,000,000 jobs per year to offset layoffs; 400,000,000 elderly Chinese by 2030 (currently no pension funds).Source: “China Takes Off”, David Hale & Lyric Hughes Hale/Foreign Affairs/Nov-Dec2003

42. 397,000,000 fixed phone lines = 90X since 1989.Source: “China Takes Off”, David Hale & Lyric Hughes Hale/Foreign Affairs/Nov-Dec2003

43. 2003: China-Hong Kong leading producer in 8 of 12 key consumer electronic product areas (>50%: DVDs, digital cameras; >33.33%: DVD-ROM drives, personal desktop and notebook computers; >25% mobile phones, color TVs, PDAs, car stereos).Source: “China Takes Off”, David Hale & Lyric Hughes Hale/Foreign Affairs/Nov-Dec2003

44. “When the Chinese Consumer Is King: America’s mass market is second to none. Someday it will just be second.”—Headline, New York Times/12.14.2003

45. World economic output: U.S.A., 21%; EU, 16%; China, 13% (2X since1991)Source: New York Times/12.14.2003

46. “America, like everyone else, must get used to being a loser as well as a gainer in the global economy. In the end, the 21st century is unlikely to be the American Century.”—”When the Chinese Consumer Is King”/New York Times/12.14.2003.“The notion that God intended Americans to be permanently wealthier than the rest of the world, that gets less and less likely as time goes on.”—Robert Solow, Nobel laureate in economics/New York Times/12.14.2003

47. JobsTechnologyGlobalizationWar, Warfighting & Security

48. “We are at a pivotal point in history. … We are at one of a half dozen turning points that have fundamentally changed the way societies are organized for governance.”—Philip Bobbitt, The Shield of Achilles: War, Peace, and the Course of History

49. “September 11 amounts to World War III—the third great totalitarian challenge to open societies in the last 100 years.”—Thomas Friedman/NYT/01.08.2004

50. “The world’s new dimension (computers, Internet, globalization, instantaneous communication, widely available instruments of mass destruction and so on) amounts to a new metaphysics that, by empowering individual zealots or agitated tribes with unappeasable grievances, makes the world unstable and dangerous in radically new ways.” —Lance Morrow/Evil