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BSPC Climate and Energy Working Group

BSPC Climate and Energy Working Group. Dinner Table Discussion Baltic Sea Scenarios Copenhagen, 20 October 2008 Helge Ørsted Pedersen Ea Energy Analyses www.eaea.dk. The Future Danish Energy System. The Danish Board of Technology: 2004-2007 Future Panel – Danish Parliamentarians

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BSPC Climate and Energy Working Group

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  1. BSPC Climate and Energy Working Group Dinner Table Discussion Baltic Sea Scenarios Copenhagen, 20 October 2008 Helge Ørsted Pedersen Ea Energy Analyses www.eaea.dk

  2. The Future Danish Energy System The Danish Board of Technology: 2004-2007 Future Panel – Danish Parliamentarians Steering group with stakeholders Public hearing, workshops and seminars Scenario report + project newsletters to the Parliament Modeling tool and data – STREAM Used for education at Danish Technical University and Roskilde University CO2-emissions: 50 % reduction in 2025 in relation to 1990 Oil consumption: 50 % reduction in 2025 in relation to 2004

  3. Denmark’s gross energy consumption PJ Natural gas RE Coal Oil 2007 Energy Policy Securty of supply + Economy + Environment + Climate + Preparedness Infrastructure Liberalisation Organisation Market Energy and heat planning Market + Framework Technology Export 5 b. kr. 46 b. kr. Self-Suffieciency 0 % 145 % GDP 100 150 District Heating 0,7 mio. households 1,5 mio. households

  4. The Danish Board of TechnologyThe Future Energy System Dinner debate in the Danish Parliament in May 2006

  5. Combination Scenario Gross energy consumption Gross

  6. 5 stakeholder workshops on key measures

  7. Prepared by The Danish Board of Technology RISØ DTU Ea Energy Analyses Jan 2007 – Oct 2008 Future Energy Scenarios for EU27 in 2030 Towards 50% oil reduction 50% CO2 emissions reduction

  8. Process of dialogue Answers Politicians Utilities Energy planners Project developers Researchers Others Questions

  9. Phase II PhaseI Workshop Final workshop Dinnerdebate Scenario report Road-map Model tool+data • MEPs • Stakeholders • Experts • Energy • Transport • Savings • MEPs • Dialogue on • - targets • measures • scenarios Public model tool -STREAM Draft report STREAM updated, data, and scenarios Website Dissemination Nov/Dec. Feb. - March April - May Sep. - Oct. 2007 2008

  10. Two scenarios Small-tech Big-tech Energy Transport Energy savings Districtheating - CHP Biomass Solar, wind, wave Improvedfueleconomy Modal-change Electric vehicles ICT CarbonCapture & Storage Nuclear power Biomass Improvedfueleconomy Modal-change Electric vehicles Biofuels …orperhaps a combination

  11. Results

  12. Results

  13. Resources and security of supply

  14. Economic results • Annuitized value of the entire energy system in the scenario year (2030) i.e. • the average annual capital costs • costs for fuels, operation and maintenance, CO2-costs • Not considered • Health benefits • Cost of modal change and improvedefficiency in transport • Transactioncostsrelated to implementation • Technology and fuelcostsmaydivert from projections • Therefore: interpretresultswithcaution

  15. Economics CO2: 45 €/t Small-tech

  16. Energy Scenarios for the BalticSea Region Copenhagen, 20 October 2008 Prepared by Ea Energy Analyses • Towards • 50% oil reduction • 50% CO2 emissions reduction • …in 2030

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