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Double Dynamical Downscaling with WRF for th e Western US

Double Dynamical Downscaling with WRF for th e Western US. Melissa Bukovsky and Changhai Liu NCAR/ IMAGe , NCAR/RAL June 28, 2012. North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program 6 RCMs downscaling 4 AOGCMs (with 12 combinations planned) Current: 1971-2000 (1999)

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Double Dynamical Downscaling with WRF for th e Western US

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  1. Double Dynamical Downscaling with WRF for the Western US Melissa Bukovsky and Changhai Liu NCAR/IMAGe, NCAR/RAL June 28, 2012

  2. North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program • 6 RCMs downscaling 4 AOGCMs (with 12 combinations planned) • Current: 1971-2000 (1999) • Future: 2041-2070 (2069) • RCMs are also being used to dynamically downscale the NCEP/DOE Reanalysis 2 • 1980-2004 • 50-km horizontal resolution over most of North America • Plus, 2 global 50-km timeslices (GFDL and CAM). www.narccap.ucar.edu

  3. Doubling Down • Further downscaling of 3 NARCCAP 50-km simulations to 10km over the West for 10 year periods (+1 year of model spin-up). • 1982-1991 • 2046-2055 • Why? To find out if higher-resolution climate information makes a difference in the decision-making of stakeholders. Naming convention = RCM+driver • Downscaled WRFG-ncep = WRFH-wncep • Downscaled WRFG-ccsm = WRFH-wccsm

  4. Status • WRFH-wncep = complete • WRFH-wccsm current: just finished • WRFH-wccsm future: 4 years left Verification Datasets • UDEL: ½ degree lat/lon resolution (~50 km), monthly average precipitation and temperature • PRISM: 4 km resolution (regridded to 10 km), monthly average precipitation and temperature

  5. 10-km WRF Configuration • Timestep = 24 - 36s • Radiation = CAM • PBL = YSU • Microphysics = Thompson • Convection = GD • Surface = Noah • + parameter tuning • LVCOEF = 1 • Albedo changes in VEGPARM.TBL • (Also, roughness length over snow modified in SNOWZ0 for North American domain simulations.)

  6. WRFH-wncep vs. WRFG-ncep

  7. DJF 1982-1991

  8. JJA 1982-1991

  9. DJF 1982-1991

  10. JJA 1982-1991

  11. WRFH-wccsmvs. WRFG-ccsm

  12. DJF 1982-1991

  13. DJF 1982-1991

  14. Discussion • More analysis to come in the future. • As a modeling study: an interesting way to look at the propagation of error/bias through different nested simulations. • As a whole: a necessary step to see if higher-resolution simulations make a difference in impacts related decision making.

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