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Economic Impacts of SDLs and Water for the Future Peter Gooday

Economic Impacts of SDLs and Water for the Future Peter Gooday. 22 October 2010. Objectives of the reports. To examine the effect on agriculture and regional economies of The Basin plan (3500 GL option) Water for the Future

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Economic Impacts of SDLs and Water for the Future Peter Gooday

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  1. Economic Impacts of SDLs and Water for the FuturePeter Gooday 22 October 2010

  2. Objectives of the reports • To examine the effect on agriculture and regional economies of • The Basin plan (3500 GL option) • Water for the Future • Government additional funding commitment to bridge any remaining gap

  3. Methodology

  4. Model Regions

  5. AusRegion model baseline2001-02

  6. Employment in MDB and Australia by sector, 2006

  7. Data & Model Assumptions • Regional SDL data were provided by MBDA • Data provided by DSEWPaC included • Original water purchase (WP), average price is $2073/ML • Infrastructure Investments, average price is $4606/ML • Infrastructure water savings occur when SDLs are implemented • Additional WP to bridge the gap to SDLs occurs between now and when SDLs are implemented

  8. Limitations • Water supply variability is not investigated • Analysis provides estimates over large regions, estimates at finer scale are not available due to limitations in the models • Considers only productivity improvement from increased water use efficiency through infrastructure investment

  9. Environmental water Existing Diversion Limit (the ‘Cap’) Gap to be addressed by continued buy-backs Water to be reallocated from consumptive to environmental use Farmer’s Share System savings from infrastructure investments on and off farm Commonwealth’s Share Buy-back Consumptive water SDL Effects of the Basin Plan and ‘Water for the Future’ water entitlements in the MDB – a conceptual outline

  10. Impacts on Irrigated Agriculture

  11. Impacts on Irrigated Agriculture

  12. Economy-wide impacts

  13. % change in GVIAP by region

  14. GVIAP by region

  15. Town Level Analysis

  16. Towns that are highly reliant on irrigation expenditure

  17. Land Use in Murray & Murrumbidgee

  18. Land use in Condamine–Balonne, Gwydir & Namoi

  19. Sensitivity Analysis Reduction in Basin GVIAP, with and without interregional trade

  20. Sensitivity Analysis Basin GVIAP by industry, with interregional trade

  21. Thank you Science and economics for decision-makers

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