ARDEC

1. ARDEC PROBLEM ANALYSIS & TESTING A COURSE BY RONALD ELBE Presenting: JOHN KUHN CONFIGURATION MANAGEMENT & LIFECYCLE INTEGRATION COMPENTENCY DIRECTORATE NDIA PRESENTATION MAY, 2003 John.F.Kuhn@us.army.mil DSN 793-3924 Comm: (309) 782-3924

2. DISCLAIMER • NOT AN OFFICIAL U.S. ARMY POSITION • CONTENT SOLELY OPINION & RESPONSIBILITY OF RON ELBE • SPIN BY JOHN KUHN Committed to Excellence 2

3. COURSE TOPICS • SKILLS & KNOWLEDGE NEEDED • TEN STEPS IN PROBLEM ANALYSIS • IF TESTING IS NEEDED • • • • TYPICAL SYSTEM TRADE-OFFs • HELPFUL HINTS FROM THOSE WITH EXPERIENCE Committed to Excellence 3

4. SKILLS & KNOWLEDGE NEEDED • FIRST PRIORITY – LOGIC & COMMON SENSE • DEDUCTIVE REASONING (SHERLOCK HOLMES) • KEEN OBSERVATION • UNDERSTANDING OF THE WHOLE SYSTEM (WEAPON, AMMO, MOUNT, ETC) • 8 STEPS IN CYCLING OF WEAPON SYSTEM Committed to Excellence 4

5. TEN STEPS IN PROBLEM ANALYSIS • DEFINE PROBLEM • IDENTIFY ALL POTENTIAL CAUSES • DETERMINE METHOD(S) OF ANALYSIS • DETERMINE DATA NEEDED FOR ANALYSIS • SPECIFY SOURCES / EQUIPMENT NEEDED TO OBTAIN DATA • OBTAIN DATA • ANALYZE DATA • DRAW CONCLUSIONS • MAKE RECOMMENDATIONS / TAKE CORRECTIVE ACTIONS X. DOCUMENT ENTIRE ANALYSIS Committed to Excellence 5

6. DEFINE THE PROBLEM / ISSUE • LACK OF DEFINITION IS MAJOR FAILURE •• CAN’T GIVE “CORRECT ANSWER” TO “WRONG QUESTION” • BE SPECIFIC Committed to Excellence 6

7. CONSIDER ALL POSSIBLE CAUSES • WEAPON •• ESPECIALLY MAGAZINES • AMMO •• CARTRIDGES •• LINKS, PACKAGING, STRIPPER CLIPS, AMMO CANS • WEAPON / AMMO INTERFACE • ANCILLARY DEVICES •• BLANK FIRING DEVICES •• TRIPODS / MOUNTS •• FEED CHUTES Committed to Excellence 7

8. CONSIDER ALL POSSIBLE CAUSES (CONTINUED) • TEST EQUIPMENT • MAINTENANCE •• INTERVALS •• EQUIPMENT • ENVIRONMENT •• STORAGE •• USE • USER •• MAN-MACHINE INTERFACE •• UNANTICIPATED / UNAUTHORIZED USE • RANDOM CHANCE • ? ? ? Committed to Excellence 8

9. PRIORITIZE POSSIBLE CAUSES • ELIMINATE THOSE NOT POSSIBLE • PRIORITIZE / RANK THOSE REMAINING • BE EFFICIENT WITH RESOURCES •• DO CHEAP, EASY INVESTIGATIONS FIRST • CONSIDER 2 PHASE TESTING •• PART I – QUICK & DIRTY •• PART II – DETAILED & CONTROLLED Committed to Excellence 9

10. FACTS / DATA / INFO NEEDED • DETERMINE FACTS / DATA / INFORMATION NEEDED TO ISOLATE CAUSE / PROBLEM • MUST BE ABLE TO ISOLATE EACH POTENTIAL CAUSE ! ! ! • BE SPECIFIC •• NOT ACCURACY •• AVERAGE EXTREME SPREAD OF 3 – 10 SHOT GROUPS @ 100 YARDS •• DOWN TO “FORM & FORMAT” Committed to Excellence 10

11. FACTS / DATA / INFO SOURCES • POTENTIAL SOURCES •• ENGINEERING JUDGEMENT & COMMON SENSE •• HISTORICAL REFERENCES •• INCLUDING SIMILAR OR OLDER SYSTEMS •• MATHEMATICAL ANALYSIS •• MODELING/SIMULATION/STRESS ANALYSIS, ETC. •• FIRING TESTS • SELECT SOURCE(S) BASED ON: •• TIME & COST EFFICIENCY •• “SURENESS” OF DECISION • BALANCE COST VS RISK / VALUE Committed to Excellence 11

12. ASSURE THAT TEST ISOLATES POTENTIAL CAUSES • CONTROLS ! CONTROLS ! CONTROLS ! •• PROVIDES DIRECT, REAL-TIME COMPARISONS •• ELIMINATES MANY VARIABLES •• CONTROL GUNS, CONTROL AMMO, CONTROL EQUIPMENT • USE “RANDOMNESS” TO ISOLATE CAUSE • ALL TEST EQUIPMENT MUST: •• NOT INFLUENCE / MASK TEST RESULTS •• BE SPECIFICALLY IDENTIFIED •• BE INSPECTED / CALIBRATED / CONFORMING (IN A “GUN TEST”, AMMO IS TEST EQUIPMENT ! ! !) • TEST MUST REFLECT “ALL FIELDED ASSETS” Committed to Excellence 12

13. ANALYZE THE DATA • FROM ALL SOURCES • MUST ISOLATE ALL POSSIBLE CAUSES • HOW DATA IS ANALYZED IS AS IMPORTANT AS DATA ITSELF Committed to Excellence 13

14. DRAW CONCLUSIONS • ARE THEY TOTALLY SUPPORTABLE? • ARE THEY UNBIASED? Committed to Excellence 14

15. RECOMMENDATIONS AND CORRECTIVE ACTIONS • CONSIDER ALTERNATIVE SOLUTIONS • IF YOU’VE DONE THOROUGH WORK, THESE ARE SELF-EVIDENT • CONSIDER LOGISTIC & ACQUISITION IMPLICATIONS OF ALTERNATIVES Committed to Excellence 15

16. RECORD IT • PREPARE FORMAL TECH REPORT •• MAKES ANALYSIS & ITS DATA PERMANENTLY AVAILABLE •• FAME & GLORY FOR YOU • RECORD ALL PERTINENT DATA / INFO •• MAKES TEST EXACTLY REPEATABLE •• SERVES AS CONTROL FOR FUTURE TESTS • DTIC •• WWW.DTIC.MIL Committed to Excellence 16

17. HELPFUL HINTS FROM OLD GUYS • DEFINE THE PROBLEM BEFORE BEGINNING THE ANALYSIS. • MEASURE & DOCUMENT THE SYSTEM BEFORE & AFTER TEST. • MANY PROBLEMS ARE CYCLICAL. •• ASK THE OLD GUYS. •• CHECK HISTORICAL REFERENCES • TEST ENOUGH SYSTEMS TO GET STATISTICALLY VALID RESULTS • BE SUSPICIOUS OF THE SUPPLY SYSTEM •• MULTIPLE VENDORS •• MULTIPLE CONTRACTS •• “STANDARDIZATION” ACTIONS Committed to Excellence 17

18. HELPFUL HINTS FROM OLD GUYS • DON’T TRUST INPUT FROM: •• CONTRACTORS •• DCAS •• THE FIELD • DON’T RUSH A PROBLEM ANALYSIS. DO IT RIGHT! • DON’T LET CONTRACTOR, MANAGEMENT, OR A CONGRESSMAN SKEW YOUR TEST SET-UP OR ANALYSIS • DON’T EXPECT USERS TO UNDERSTAND SYSTEM OR EXPLAIN PROBLEM • YOU WILL NEVER GET ON APG’S SCHEDULE (PLAN AHEAD) • “LITTLE THINGS (SURFACE FINISH, WORKMANSHIP, LUBRICATION, RADII) ARE IMPORTANT Committed to Excellence 18

19. HELPFUL HINTS FROM OLD GUYS • SCANNING ELECTRON BEAM MICROSCOPE FOR CHEMISTRY & LUBRICANTS • A FIRING TEST SHOULD BE THE LAST RESORT • CATEGORIES OF FIELD PROBLEMS •• DESIGN RELATED •• QUALITY RELATED •• MAINTENANCE RELATED •• USE / ABUSE RELATED • ONE HIGH SPEED VIDEO IS BETTER THAN 10,000 ROUNDS FIRED • ONE TIME-DISPLACEMENT CURVE IS BETTER THAN 100,000 ROUNDS FIRED • FINALIZE TEST PLAN BEFORE FIRING • DEFINE PASS / FAIL BEFORE FIRING Committed to Excellence 19