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The MERLIN team:

Multi-Pollutant Multi-Effect Modeling of European Air Pollution Control Strategies - an Integrated Approach. The MERLIN team:. IER University of Stuttgart (Co-ordinator) [GER]

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The MERLIN team:

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  1. Multi-Pollutant Multi-Effect Modeling of European Air Pollution Control Strategies - an Integrated Approach The MERLIN team: • IER University of Stuttgart (Co-ordinator) [GER] • Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Laboratory for Heat Transfer and Environmental Engineering (AUT/LHTEE) [GR] • University College London (UCL) [UK] • Norwegian Meteorological Institute (DNMI) [NO] • ECOFYS Energy and Environment [NL] • Institute for Ecology of Industrial Areas (IETU) [POL] Extension in the frame of the EC call to include partners from NAS: • Energy Research Center (ERC) of Ostrava TechnicalUniversity (Ostrava, Czech Republic) • National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (Sofia, Bulgaria) • University of Ploiesti (Ploiesti, Romania)

  2. Objectives Development and application of methodologies and toolsfor an integrated assessment of European air pollution control strategies • multi-pollutant, multi-effect assessment • cost-effectiveness and cost-benefit analysis • inclusion of non-technical measures • macroeconomic effects and distributional burdens of air pollution control • inclusion of accession countries

  3. Acidification Global Warming Eutrophication N2O SO2 CH4 NOx CO2 NH3 CO NMVOC Urban Air Quality Particulate Matter (PM2.5 / PM10) TroposphericOzone primary & secondary Aerosols Multi-Pollutant Multi-Effect Analysis

  4. 2001 2002 2003 04 F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J WP01 WP02 WP03 WP04 WP05 WP06 WP07 WP08 WP09 WP10 WP11 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 = main inputs Report D01, D02 D05a, b D07a/b Interim Report (R01) D03b D04b D08b D03a D04a D07c D08a Interim Report (R02) D06 D09 Final Deliverables Reports Events st d 1 n 2 Project Meeting Project Meeting Project Meeting Project Meeting Project Meeting Project Kick-off Final Meeting MERLIN Schedule

  5. Comparison Between MERLIN and the IIASA-DNMI Contract

  6. 2000 Base Case 2010 Business-as-usual(BAU) Optimised Scenarios (2005 to 2020) + 2020 BAU EMEP 2000 Emissions (country totals & sectoral) OR: EMEP 1999 Emissions (country totals, sectoral adaption according to GENEMIS Scenarios) • EMEP 2010 Emission Projections • (according to countries‘ submission) • AND harmonisation/crosscheck with: • official energy projections • implementation of policies in place and in pipeline • sectoral targets • OMEGA II optimisation runs (annual) • AND exogeneous changes in • technology of stock • sectoral activity rates • ... • i.e. W2 runs for each year (2005, ... 2010, ... 2020) in the following way: MERLIN Scenarios

  7. Generate the first set of solutions at random Stock activity database Calculate the resulting emissions for each country Source receptor Matrices (EMEP) Crossbreed and mutate the surviving strategies Calculate concentration changes on a 50 * 50 km grid Remove strategies with worst performance Evaluate results End optimisation, if targets are achieved. MERLIN Optimisation Approach (Evolutionary Algorithm)

  8. MERLIN Networking • MERLIN maintains close links to ongoing activities, such as the • UNECE Task Force Emission Inventories and Projection (TFEIP), • UNECE Task Force Integrated Assessment Modelling (TFIAM), and the recently established • UNECE Expert Group on Techno-Economic Issues (EGTEI) • in order to make best efforts to harmonise work and take into account best available data sources.

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