Expert meeting on “Environment , Climate Change and Security in the Artic” 28 February 2013

1. Expert meeting on “Environment, Climate Change and Security in the Artic” 28 February 2013 EEA activities on climate change impacts and adaptation in Europe Hans-Martin Füssel (Project manager climate change impacts and adaptation)

2. The EEA mission The EEA is the EU body dedicated to providing sound, independent information on the environment. We are a main information source for those involved in developing, adopting, implementing and evaluating environmental policy, and also the general public. • EEA clients: • European Commission, European Parliament, Council of the European Union, EEA membercountries • Policyinfluencers: NGOs, business, media, advisorygroups, scientists, debaters • General public

3. EEA member and cooperating countries

4. EU policy processes related to adaptation • Climate change adaptation (White Paper 2009 and planned EU 2013 strategy) • Europe 2020 strategy for smart, sustainable and inclusive growth: ‘strengthen our economies' resilience to climate risks’ and EU low-carbon strategy 2050 • Draft 2014-2020 Multi-annual Financial Framework, proposal for share of climate-related expenditure (mitigation and adaptation) to 20% • Environmental policies: • Water Framework Directive and Floods Directive • Nature protection directives, policies to halt biodiversity loss • MarineStrategy Framework Directive; Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) • Sectoral, cross-cutting: maritime, agriculture; forestry; human health; disaster risk reduction; infrastructure e.g. energy, transport; urban areas • EU funded research (Horizon2020), future GMES climate service

5. Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2012 (indicator-based report) Objectives: • present past and projected climate change and impacts through indicators • identify sectors and regions most at risk • highlight the need for adaptation actions • identify main sources of uncertainty; • demonstrate how monitoring and scenario development can improve the knowledge base • Report on adaptation actions (EU, national, sectoral) is due April 2013 • See: http://www.eea.europa.eu/pressroom/newsreleases/climate-change-evident-across-europe

6. Production of the report • Coordination by EEA • Authors and contributors (total 90) from: • EEA and European Topic Centres (climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation; biodiversity; inland, coastal and marine waters), see: http://cca.eionet.europa.eu/ • World Health Organisation Europe • European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control • Joint Research Centre (European Commission) • Guidance by Advisory Group (European Commission, EEA scientific committee, WHO, ECMWF, IPCC, SWIPA, other organisations and researchers) • External review(Advisory Group, selected experts, and countries) • Data sources: European and other research projects, international databases, academic publications

7. Structure of the report Executive Summary Technical Summary • Introduction • Purpose and outline • Scope and link to other EU and EEA activities and products • Background and policy framework • Climate change, impact, vulnerability and adaptation indicators • Emissions and socio-economic scenarios for projections • Uncertainty in observations and projections • Definition of vulnerability and risk 2. Changes in the climate system • Human influence on the climate system • Key climate variables • Cryosphere 3. Climate impacts on environmental systems • Oceans and marine environment • Coastal zones • Freshwater quantity and quality • Terrestrial ecosystems and biodiversity • Soil • 4. Climate impacts on socio-economic systems and health • Agriculture • Forests and forestry • Fisheries and aquaculture • Human health • Energy • Transport • Tourism • 5. Vulnerability to climate change • Introduction • River flooding, water scarcity and droughts • Integrated assessment of vulnerability to climate change • Vulnerability of cities and urban areas • Damage costs • 6. Indicator and data needs • Policy needs for indicators • Observations • Climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation research

8. More than 40 indicators • Climate variables • Cryosphere • Marine environment • Coastal zones • Inland waters • Terrestrial ecosystems • Soil • Agriculture • Forestry and forests • Fisheries* • Human health • Energy • Transport* • Tourism* • Vulnerability indices* • * No EEA indicators • Cryosphere • Snow cover • Greenland ice sheet • Glaciers • Permafrost • Arctic and Baltic Sea ice 8

9. Europe’s key climate change impacts and risks

10. Europe’s key climate change impacts and risks

11. Example: glaciers • Most European glaciers are in retreat; glaciers in the Alps lost two thirds of their volume since 1850. The retreat is projected to continue.

12. Example: Arctic Sea ice The extent and volume of the Arctic Sea ice has declined rapidly since global data became available in 1980, especially in summer. Record low sea ice cover in September 2007, 2011 and 2012 was roughly half the size of the normal minimum extent in the 1980s.

13. Climate-ADAPT: European Climate Adaptation Platform • Supports governmental decision-makers developing climate change adaptation strategies, policies and actions • Guided by advise from countries (agencies and ministries), Adaptation Steering Group (chaired by DG CLIMA), other organisations (e.g. WHO Europe), experts from EU FP projects • Launched 23 March 2012 (DG CLIMA, EEA) • EEA to maintain with JRC and supported by ETC-CCA http://climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu

14. This section provides an introduction to adaptation from a European perspective: • How is the EU climatechanging: • Observations of currentclimate trends • Future projections underdifferent scenarios • Whatriskswewill face as a consequence • How wecanadapt to reduceourvulnerabilities • What adaptation measures are available in differentsectors, eg water Adaptation has to be taken into consideration when defining and implementing other policies, eg agricultural policy, water management etc. This is what we call « mainstreaming » This section describes how the EU is mainstreaming climate change adaptation in key sectors of EU policies that will be affected by climate change This section presents information on different levels: • Countries: information on National Adaptation Strategies and policies • Transnational regions: adaptation activities to face transboundary issues in a coordinated way. Examples: Alpine Space, Baltic region etc • Urban areas: cities are particularly vulnerable to adaptation. This section will present results and tools from DG CLIMA’s « Cities and Adaptation » Project Tools: Online support tools developed for CLIMATE-ADAPT Links: Relevant organisations and online platforms Database: possibility to search the entire database of Climate-ADAPT, including research projects, adaptation options, case studies, indicators, guidance documents, etc

15. Thank you for your attention http://climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu

16. Time schedule of the 2012 report

17. Key statistics about the 2012 report • 300 pages • 44 CLIM indicators • ~70 (multiple-panel) maps • >50 figures • 41 authors • 50 additional contributors • 4 key organizations: EEA, JRC, WHO, ECDC • 3 EEA programs: ACC, NSV, IEA • 3 European Topic Centres: ACC, ICM, BD

18. Key messages • Climate change (increases in temperature, changes in precipitation and decreases in ice and snow) is occurring globally and in Europe; some of the observed changes have established records in recent years. • Observed climate change has already led to a wide range of impacts on environmental systems and society; further climate change impacts are projected for the future. • Climate change can increase existing vulnerabilities and deepen socio‑economic imbalances in Europe. • Damage costs from natural disasters have increased; the contribution of climate change to these costs is projected to increase in the future. • The combined impacts of projected climate change and socio‑economic development can lead to high damage costs; these costs can be reduced significantly by mitigation and adaptation actions. • The causes of the most costly climate impacts are projected to differ strongly across Europe.

19. Example 1: extreme temperatures • Average land temperature in European in the last decade was 1.3 oCabove preindustrial. Projections show an increase by 2.5-4.0 oCby 2071–2100 for the SRES A1B scenario. • Heat waves have increased in frequency and length, which is projected to continue

20. Example 2: precipitation Annual precipitation has increased in northern Europe (mostly in winter) and decreased in southern Europe (mostly in summer), and this is projected to continue

21. Example 4: river floods • The number of river flood events increased due to better reporting and land-use changes • River floods are projected to become more frequent (also flash and urban drainage floods) in many regions in Europe

22. Example 5: water stress • Minimum river flows are projected to decrease throughout Europe (especially in summer) • Water stress is projected to increase, especially in the south. This is due to increases in water abstraction and/or decreases in water availability. • In a ‘sustainability ‘scenario water stress can be reduced. • For agriculture increased efficiency for irrigation can reduce water abstractions, but this may not be sufficient to have enough water for aquatic ecosystems.

23. Example 6: plant and animal species • Plant and animal species are projected to shift to the north, forests to contract in the south and expand in the north, and many mountain plant species may face extinction. • The rate of climate change is expected to exceed the ability of many plant and animal species to migrate, as landscape fragmentation may restrict movement.

24. Example 7: forest fire risk Projections show an expansion of the fire-prone area and longer fire seasons

25. Example 8: crop yield • Water-limited crop yields are projected to decrease in the south and increase in the north. • Droughts have reduced crop productivity in the past decade. Yield variability is projected to increase due to increases in droughts (in the south).

26. Example 9: human health • River and coastal flooding affect millions of people in Europe each year. • Observed increases in heavy precipitation and extreme coastal high-water events have led to more river and coastal flooding in many European regions. • Increases in health risks associated with river and coastal flooding are projected in many regions of Europe due to projected increases in extreme precipitation events and sea level.

27. Example 10: human health • Mosquitos carrying vector-borne diseases are projected to move northward and upwards. • E.g. A. albopictus is transmitting Chikungunya (the virus has so far been imported to Europe by travellers) and A. aegypti is a primary vector for Dengue.

28. Urban adaptation to climate change (EEA report May 2012) • Heat waves, flooding, water scarcity and droughts • Planning urban adaptation • Multi-level governance enabling urban adaptation

29. http://eucities-adapt.eu

30. 3 key tools have been developed for CLIMATE-ADAPT Adaptation support tool Overview of countries activities Case study search tool

31. Climate-ADAPT – Health http://climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu/web/guest/health

32. EU policies: water management For each sector, CLIMATE-ADAPT presents how the EU is mainstreaming adaptation This is relevant in particular for the water sector, which will be severely impacted by climate change. Each sector page presents relevant: • Indicators of climate change • Publications • Research Projects • Information resources

33. CLIMATE-ADAPT: water stress projections Users of CLIMATE-ADAPT will be able to visualize the key results of ClimWatAdapt, a study which provide a comprehensive analysis of risks and vulnerability in the water sector. This will allow the assessment of vulnerability to climate change impacts and adaptation measures in the water sector

34. Example UK • Climate Change Act 2008 (includes both mitigation and adaptation) • UK-wide climate change risk assessment (CCRA) every five years (first in Jan 2012) • National adaptation programme (NAP) (first 2013, to be reviewed every five years) • Reporting on adaptation by “reporting authorities” Source: DEFRA (2012), see: http://www.defra.gov.uk/environment/climate/government/risk-assessment/

35. Methodology UK CCRA

36. Source: DEFRA (2012), see: http://www.defra.gov.uk/environment/climate/government/risk-assessment/

37. ‘Adaptation pathways’ Example UK Thames barrier

38. Adaptation Support Tool The Adaptation Support Tool guides the user through the policy makingcycle of adaptation: from the assessment of risk and vulnerability to the identification, implementation and evaluation of adaptation measures For each step it provides: • Guidance Documents • Information Resources • Risk and assessment tools • Relevant case studies • Links to useful information

39. Overview of National Activities CLIMATE ADAPT presents information on National Activities for most European Countries European countries are at very different stages of development of climate change adaptation policies There are 12 countries with an adopted adaptation strategy and CLIMATE-ADAPT has gathered information on adaptation actions/measures/strategies from 25 European countries

40. CLIMATE-ADAPT contains a database of case studies Users will be able to upload their case studies All case studies will be quality checked and made available to the European adaptation community Case study search tool How are people, cities, regions adapting to climate change in Europe? What can we learn from others? This tool allows to browse all available case studies in Europe, searching by sector or climate impact. 1. A location is selected (eg Marseille) 2. A climate impact is selected (eg drought) 3. The tool shows all available adaptation case studies. Red dots are case studies in a region with similar climate impacts as Marseille (Southern Europe). Grey dots are case studies outside that region

41. Comparison of countries actions • Almost all EEA member countries provided information • Impacts, vulnerability and adaptation assessments : 17 (AT, BE, CH, CZ, DE, DK, ES, FI, FR, HU, LT, NL, NO, RO, PT, SE, UK) • Research programmes: 4 (FI, NL, NO, SE) • Climate Services /Met Office: all to some extent (no details available) • Web Portal • Broad: 7 (AT, DE, DK, FI, NO, SE, UK) • Narrow: 8 (BE, ES, FR, HU, LT, NL, PT, SI) • National adaptation strategies: 13 (BE, CH, DE, DK, ES, FI, FR, HU, MT, NL, PT, SE, UK) • Some of these also have adaptation action plans • Monitoring of adaptation (indicators): 2 (DE, UK)

42. Conclusions • Mainstreaming of climate change adaptation in EU policies is taking place • The European Commission will publish an EU adaptation strategy in spring 2013 • Many EEA member countries have developed impacts, vulnerability and adaptation assessments • Several EEA member countries have national strategies in place (and some also national action plans) • The European Climate Adaptation Platform may support climate change adaptation strategies at various governance levels • Information can be updated and extended through working with users and providers of information