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Recovery and Financial Markets

Analyzing recovery indicators post-recession in financial markets using data sources like GDP growth, corporate profits, real income changes, and interest rates.

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Recovery and Financial Markets

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  1. Recovery and Financial Markets John Ryding, Chief Market EconomistFebruary 20, 2002

  2. Recovery Scorecard Table Source: Bear, Stearns & Co. Inc.

  3. Bear Stearns Industrial Metals Index 01/01/96 = 100 Source: Bear, Stearns & Co. Inc.

  4. Real Personal Income 12-month change, % Shading = recession Source: Commerce Department

  5. Real Corporate Profits 4-quarter change, % Shading = recession Source: Commerce Department

  6. Profit Fundamentals Source: Bear, Stearns & Co. Inc.

  7. GDP and S&P 500 Growth Following Recession Source: Bear, Stearns & Co. Inc.

  8. GDP Growth and S&P 500 Following Recession Source: Bear, Stearns & Co. Inc.

  9. Price of Gold $ per troy ounce Source: Haver Analytics

  10. Trade-Weighted U.S. Dollar 3/73 = 100 Source: Haver Analytics

  11. Nominal Fed Funds Rate percent Source: Haver Analytics

  12. Real Yield on 10-Year Treasury Note percent Source: Haver Analytics

  13. 10-Year to 2-Year Treasury Spread basis points Source: Federal Reserve

  14. 2-Year Treasury to Fed Funds Spread basis points Source: Federal Reserve

  15. Baa Corporate Bond Spread Baa minus 10-yr Treasury, basis points Source: Moody’s; Federal Reserve

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