Evaluating Causal Claims

1. Evaluating Causal Claims ? ?

2. I hope the seat belt sign is not turned on so frequently! The plane shakes so violently every time it is turned on! Is there a problem in the child’s reasoning?

3. Ice Cream Sales No. of Shark Attacks 0 10000 20000 0 4 8 Months Months Jan Jul Dec Jan Jul Dec Is There a Relationship Between Ice Cream Sales And The Number of Shark Attacks? 3

4. Is There a Cause And Effect Relationship Between Youngsters Watching Violence Films And TheirViolent Behaviours? • What is the evidence? • Is there a bias? • Is the research approach appropriate?

5. Distinguish Between Fact, Opinion and ReasonedArgument Evidence? First of all, you should learn to distinguish: • Fact • Opinion • Reasoned Argument This is Because…

6. Good Thinking Requires Information and Reasons • Fact: • Tung Chee Hwawas the first Chief Executive of Hong Kong. • Opinion: • Mr Tung was a good Chief Executive. • Reasoned Argument: • Because of the differential appeals and concerns from different parties, groups and walks of life, the government should try its best to implement a policy that is favourable to all people.

7. I hope the seat belt sign is not turned on so frequently! The plane shakes so violently every time it is turned on! Is there a problem in the child’s reasoning?

8. What is Correlation? Ice Cream Sales No. of Shark Attacks 0 10000 20000 0 4 8 Months Months Jan Jul Dec Jan Jul Dec

9. What is Correlation? Is there a relationship between ice cream sales and the number of shark attacks? What kind of relationship is it?

10. What is Correlation? Ice Cream Sales No. of Shark Attacks

11. What is Correlation? Does correlation mean a cause and effect relationship? Positive Correlation Negative Correlation B falls when A rises. B rises when A rises.

12. Can You Identify the Type of Relationship? Rebellious Teenager Low Levels of Education  When A and B are correlated Rebellious Teenager Low Levels of Education  Family Factors Low Levels of Education Rebellious Teenager

13. What is Correlation? Cause and Effect Relationship Correlation

14. Some Examples Your Gateway to Exam Success! Many private tutorial centres publicise the number of their students who got As or even straight As in public examinations.

15. Is There a Cause And Effect Relationship Between Youngsters Watching Violence Films And TheirViolent Behaviours? • What is the evidence? • Is there a bias? • Is the research approach appropriate?

16. Attractive Product Claims 100% Safety Approved! Money Back Guarantee Proven Effectiveness! Results in a week! Research Example: Is laser fat reduction treatment effective?

17. Attractive Product Claims What questions would you ask to find out if the treatment is actually effective? Hints: Who will be the participants? Can everyone participate in the experiment? How to choose the participants? Do all participants receive the same treatment?

18. Thinking about Result of Consumer Research Random Sampling

19. Thinking about Result of Consumer Research Control Experiment Experimental Group vs. Control Group Laser Fat Reduction Treatment No Laser Fat Reduction Treatment

20. Thinking about Result of Consumer Research • Other Methods of Control • Placebo • Double Blind Study • Significance of Result (that probably happened not by chance)

21. How May Our Thinking Be Affected? • What is Fallacy? - Errors in Reasoning and Logic • Common Fallacies • Guilt by Association / Virtue by Association • Popularity & Testimonials • Weak Analogies • Appeals to Tradition

22. Juvenile delinquent and reputation of school(Guilt by Association) - If a student commits an offence, people will think that other students from the same school have bad behaviour too. Guilt by Association andVirtue by Association • Favourable teacher and university(Virtue by Association) • - Your favourite teacher graduated from a certain university. Therefore, that particular university must be a good university. • Can you think of other everyday examples of Guilt by Association and Virtue by Association?

23. Cosmetic products Mobile phones Popularity & Testimonials - Celebrity spokespersons and popularity terms such as “best-selling” or “most popular” are often introduced in the adverts of cosmetic products and mobile phones. • Can you think of other everyday examples of “Popularity & Testimonials”?

24. Time spent on sports and study - Athletes train very hard for their successes. If they spend the same amount of effort on their studies, they will get the same rewarding results. Weak Analogies • A Man’s car and his girlfriend • - We can infer the way a man treats his girlfriend from the way he treats his car. • Can you think of other everyday examples of Weak Analogies?

25. Husbands should work and wives should be housewives - According to tradition, husbands are responsible for earning money and wives are responsible for keeping the household. Appeals to Tradition • School should finish early in summer • - Schools used to end early in summer because of the hot weather and the lack of air-conditioning in schools. Although most schools are now equipped with air- conditioning, we still feel that schools should end early in the summer. • Can you think of other everyday examples of Appeals to Tradition?

26. Evaluating Causal Claims… • Requires - Effort - Time - and Critical Thinking • Advantages - Money-saving - Wise Shopping - Self-control