Spacecast

1. Spacecast Richard B Horne Introduction to the SPACECAST Project SPACECAST Stakeholders Meeting, BAS, 7th Feb, 2014

2. Space Weather • Changes that occur in near-Earth space which can disrupt modern technology

3. UK National Risk Register of Civil Emergencies • Severe Space Weather

4. Satellite Anomalies – Related to space Weather • 20th Jan 1994 • Intelsat 4, Anik E1 and Anik E2 • Intelsat 4 and Anik E1 were recovered in a few hours • Anik E2 - Loss of service for 6 months • 11th January 1997 • Telstar 401 - Total loss – Insurance payout $132m • 19th May 1998 • Galaxy IV - Total loss – Insurance payout $165m • 23rd Oct to 6th Nov 2003 • 47 satellites reported malfunctions • 10 satellites – loss of service for more than 1 day • Midori 2 - Total loss - US$640m – scientific satellite • 5th Apr 2010 • Galaxy 15 - Loss of service for 8 months - drifted around GEO – risk of collision • 7th March 2012, • Sky Terra 1 and Spaceway 3 - Safe mode, loss of service for hours - days

5. SPACECAST - The Goal Satellites Radiation Belts Solar Energetic Particles • Goal • To protect space assets from high and low energy particles by developing European dynamic modelling and forecasting capabilities

6. The SPACECAST Team BAS U. of Helsinki Johns Hopkins UCLA K. U. of Leuven FMI NASA Goddard DH Consultancy Los Alamos ONERA U. of Barcelona Stakeholder - SES, Luxembourg And many other international collaborations common for research projects Exploration Physics Inc.

7. Satellite Orbits and the Electron Radiation Belts

8. Wave-Particle Interactions • Wave-particle interactions cause electron acceleration and loss • Cause variability • Changed ideas lasting 40 years Satellite observations Antarctic observations

9. Waves and Particles Kind permission of Andy Kale and Ian Mann, U. of Alberta

10. Forecasting Concept • It takes ~ 40-60 minutes for the solar wind to flow from the ACE satellite to the Earth • Access ACE satellite data in real time and use it to drive our forecasting models • We use physical models • Like weather forecasting ACE satellite Radiation Belts

11. Achievements – Forecast of >800 keV electrons • Whole outer radiation belt • GEO, MEO, slot region • Forecast turned into risk of internal charging • 24/7 • Automatic 3 hour model forecast Model GOES satellite data

12. Risk of Internal Satellite Charging - ESD • Model results are converted into a risk index • Risk levels are based on previous satellite anomalies at geostationary orbit GOES 13 Model

13. Achievements – Nowcast of Low Energy (40 keV) Electrons Cause of surface charging on satellites Data Model

14. Achievements – Risk of Surface Charging • Model results are converted into a risk index • Risk levels are based on electron flux and satellite charging at geostationary orbit

15. Achievements – Solar Energetic Particle Events • Captured the evolution of the shock and the magnetic connection between Earth and the shock – the cobpoint - • Developed better model of foreshock acceleration – by turbulence • Will enable better empirical models of SEP events

16. Achievements – Radiation Dose at Geostationary Orbit • The measured proton flux at geostationary orbit is converted into a dose rate and displayed in real time

17. Achievements – Stakeholders • SPACECAST has developed strong stakeholder interest • SES (Luxembourg) • Atrium Insurance (UK) • Surrey Satellites (Astrium UK) • Eumetsat (Germany) • Lockheed Martin (USA) • USA – UK collaboration • Policy advice to Government • Briefing to NATO MPs • Evidence to UK House of Commons, briefing MPs, Cabinet Office Cttee • National risk register • Severe space weather – input to Royal Academy of Engineering Report • Press and publications • 3 press releases, 2 TV documentary, 3 radio and podcasts, many press articles • 15 research papers in peer reviewed Journals

18. Summary • Delivered new research and understanding • Wave-particle interactions control radiation belt variability – VLF, ULF waves • Solar wind controls the transport of low energy electrons • Proton acceleration by wave turbulence at interplanetary shocks • The magnetic connection between the Earth and the shock is essential • Setup the first system to forecast the whole outer radiation belt – up to 3 hours ahead • Geostationary orbit • Medium Earth orbit • ‘Slot’ region (the region between the inner and outer belts) • In real time - Quantify the risk of • internal satellite charging • surface charging • solar proton related damage • 24 hours a day, 7 days a week

20. Discussion • What are the most useful results? • How do they compare against other offerings? • How reliable are NOAA data? • How important is satellite anomaly cause and resolution • Inner radiation belt? • Severe Space Weather events? • Forecasting – who needs it? how far ahead? • Other orbits – Medium, Low, slot region? How well provisioned? • New technology – All electric propulsion – radiation levels – risk levels?

21. Sunspot Cycle – Geomagnetic Activity • The number of geomagnetic storms is highest 1-2 years after sunspot maximum • Risk is higher during magnetic storms • So expect higher risk for 2014 - 2018 active sun quiet sun