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Responding to the Populist Impulse in Europe: The case of France

Responding to the Populist Impulse in Europe: The case of France. Pierre Garello, IES-Europe www.ies-europe.org Europe Liberty Forum – London 2016. Populist parties are flourishing.

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Responding to the Populist Impulse in Europe: The case of France

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  1. Responding to the Populist Impulse in Europe: The case of France Pierre Garello, IES-Europe www.ies-europe.org Europe Liberty Forum – London 2016

  2. Populist parties are flourishing • Front National (Marine Le Pen) is the first party (in terms of votes) at the last regional elections (December 2015) – up from 17.9% at the last presidential elections. • But also: “La France debout” • And Melanchon (11.10%) and the new left

  3. What make them strong? • A difficult economic context • High unemployment (over 10%) • Very low economic growth (around 1%) • Main parties unable to bring new leaders (and often corrupted) • High fiscal burden • Uncertainty regarding the future of the EU, the Euro… • A set of radical (but not original) propositions: • Save the welfare State by reserving its benefits to the « true » French citizens and protect the Nation against foreign economic aggression. • The fact that they have never been in charge...

  4. Let’s read Marine’s program

  5. We start with…

  6. Santa Claus’s distribution • Immediate increase in the purchasing power of the lower and medium classes • A 200€ increase for all salaries below 1500€ • Tariffs for gas, electricity, train: down by -5% • Tax on oil is cut by 20% • Control of usury rate (ceiling) • Small shops must be protected against Chain Stores. • Retirees (pensions increased, medication less expensive) • Judges (Budget +25% --but no right to form unions or be in politics) • Policemen, Farmers, Fishermen, High school teachers, Fire-man, veterans: everyone has a gift

  7. With a few exceptions… • The rich people: marginal rate of PIT increased to 46% • A more progressive income tax (more brackets in the middle range) • Maintain the Wealth tax, make it more progressive and combine it with Property tax. • Homosexuals (no gay marriage, no adoption but PACS remains)

  8. Who will pay for the gifts? • Minor cuts on expenditures (sumptuary expenses from the State or Subsidies to voluntary associations without public interest) • Mercantilist policies (smart protectionism!) • Monetary policy: Get out of the Euro (parallel currencies) and print your own money • « Only two ways to regain our competitiveness: lower salaries and social protection (UMPS solution) or use our own currency and reject austerity policies. This is the choice of Marine Le Pen.”

  9. More on monetary policy • Parallel currencies • Limit the free (speculative!) movement of capital • (Partially) nationalize deposit banks • “De-privatize” public money. State will be able to borrow at zero percent rate . • In 40 years France has paid 1,400 bill € of interests to financial markets and the debt is (2012) of 1,700 bill €. QED!

  10. Mercantilism • State must buy from French companies • Other companies will be given similar incentive. • A law “Achetonsfrançais”. • 3% tax on imports • Custom duties to fight “social dumping”.

  11. Pensions: have more babies! • No reform. We keep with the PAYG system. • Financed with an active ‘birth policy’ • 80% of the Minimum wage for a mother staying home (with the social benefits). Paid during three years starting with the second child.

  12. Immigration • Quotas: down from 200,000 a year to 10,000 a year! • Kick out illegal migrants • Strengthen the requirements to become French citizen (Droit du sol-birthright--suppressed) • Priority to French citizens for social housing and jobs (if equal competency) • “Invite” legal migrants to go back home when unemployed • Social benefits only if one of the parents is French or European

  13. Police, Justice, Defense • More policemen • Better pay for judges • Referendum on death penalty • No social benefits for parents whose children have been caught twice. • Increase military budget to 2%of GDP • Get out of NATO

  14. International • Pan-European Union of sovereign states • Including Russia and Switzerland • Excluding Turkey • Negotiate treaty with Maghreb countries with the requirement that a stop be put on migration towards France

  15. Conclusion • The threat is real • To have mercantilism and nationalism back is very bad news for French citizens but also for that part of the world. • France has specific links with the Arabic and Muslim worlds.

  16. Action • The Welfare State is the problem, not the thing to be preserved • Excluding immigrants from it will not help, quite the contrary • Closing our borders will not help in anyway • Develop a detailed evaluation of their economic program • More studies on costs and benefits from immigration (actual studies focuses only on costs and rarely on benefits) • Have other parties to question the Welfare State

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