1 / 21

The demographic shift - challenges and opportunities-

The demographic shift - challenges and opportunities-. Bernd Keil , European Commission Employment and Social Affairs. “The Aging Society” -Opportunities and challenges for strengthening Europe’s competitiveness-. The demographic shift -challenges and opportunities

lyndon
Download Presentation

The demographic shift - challenges and opportunities-

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. The demographic shift- challenges and opportunities- Bernd Keil, European Commission Employment and Social Affairs

  2. “The Aging Society”-Opportunities and challenges for strengthening Europe’s competitiveness- The demographic shift -challenges and opportunities 1. Introduction-a personal approach 2. The three components- choices before us 3. The European approach to ageing 4. Conclusions Conference of the Ministry for Health, Social Affairs, Women an Family, NRW, Germany, Brussels, 9th December 2003

  3. Challenges • Preparing for greater expenditures; • Adjusting to an ageing and shrinking workforce; • Ensuring adequate and sustainable pensions; • Achieving access to high quality health and long term care.

  4. Opportunities • Achieve high quality health and long term care • Raise growth, productivity and employment • Maintain social welfare systems • Promote active aging

  5. 2. Components-choices before us:Demographic trends • Rapid population ageing 2010-2020; • Ageing intensifies 2020-2040; • Wave subsides after 2040; • Leaner but balanced age pyramid as a future trend.

  6. 2. Components-choices before us:Fertility rates • the weak birth rate of recent decades

  7. 2. Components-choices before us: Fertility rates

  8. 2. Components-choices before us: Fertility rates • Question: Do EU-fertility rates stabilize? • Baseline Scenario (Eurostat) says EU-15 population increases until 2022 because of immigration and decreases until 2055 by 3% under today’s level • Explain patterns in the Mediterranean, Nordic, German-Austrian and Acceding Countries different policies?

  9. 2. Components-choices before us: Immigration • Immigration into the US as an explanation for past long term period and economic growth of 3 % per year; • Past economic stagnation in Japan is partly caused by declining size of working-age population and policy of zero-immigration. • Traditional models of immigration are to be questioned: Effective integration is needed.

  10. 2. Components-choices before us: Mortality rates • life expectancy continues to rise

  11. 2. Components-choices before us:Mortality rates

  12. 2. Components-choices before us: Mortality rates

  13. Increase in age cohort 65+ Increase by 30 million older people shifts old age dependency rate from 4.13 to 2.49 with main part in 2015-2030 Increase in age cohort 80+ Increase by 15 million older people shows a relative increase of 50% in 2000-2015 and 31% in 2015-2030 2. Components-choices before us:Mortality rates

  14. 2. Components-choices before us: Mortality rates • Extension of life expectancy • General increase of longevity of 8.2 years in the last 40 years, • Increase of longevity at age 65 by 5 years to an additional average of 15.5, • has been the result of improved living conditions and medical progress of particular importance for older persons.

  15. 2. Components-choices before us :workforce • the baby-boom generation will reach retirement age within the next ten to fifteen years

  16. 2. Components-choices before us:workforce

  17. 2.Components-choices before us: Impacts of labour market • EU (-25) working age population reaches largest size of 308 million in 2011, but • shrinks from 303 million in 2000 to 275 million in 2030. • By 2030 40 million unmet demand for workers (baseline scenario) implies increase of productivity by 2.5 - 3 % per year compared to past rates of 1.7.

  18. 3. The European approach to ageing: • Mobilising the full potential of people of all ages - beyond attention to the presently old and including a life course/cycle approach. • Core active aging practices include: life long learning, working longer, retiring later, being active and engaging in health. • The agenda includes economic, employ-ment and social implications of aging.

  19. 3. The European approach to ageing: • Open Coordination regarding ageing related challenges in health and long time care and balance the objectives: • Acessability, • Quality and • Sustainability.

  20. 4. Conclusions • Intensify the mobilisation and effective use of resources, • support immigration and integration, • support proactive policies to development human capital • Working together.

  21. The demographic shift-challenges and opportunities • Further informations, see “Social Report 2003” • Internet: europe.int. • Thank you for your attention !

More Related