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Fund Evaluation Group, llc. FLATTENING YOUR INVESTMENT PORTFOLIO. January 15, 2013 Michael J. Oyster, CFA Managing Principal / Portfolio Strategist. Managed opportunities. Benefits Combination of ETF and mutual fund holdings Dynamic asset allocation Low portfolio costs
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Fund Evaluation Group, llc FLATTENING YOUR INVESTMENT PORTFOLIO January 15, 2013 Michael J. Oyster, CFA Managing Principal / Portfolio Strategist
Managed opportunities • Benefits • Combination of ETF and mutual fund holdings • Dynamic asset allocation • Low portfolio costs • 10 year performance track record • Minimum account generally $50,000 1Subject to availability
Fund evaluation group, LLC Profile History • Over 24 years of client service since 1988 • Approximately $33 billion* in client assets under advisement • Employee owned, with broad equity ownership • Monetary compensation derived solely from clients *As of June 30, 2012
FEG Clients and services Institutional Clients Financial Advisors Managed Portfolios Consulting Services Alternative Investment Strategies Outsourced CIO Endowment Alliance Program Research Services
Investment Philosophy FEG’s Investment Philosophy • Investment decisions should be made with a long-term perspective • Portfolios should be constructed to help achieve diversification by global risk factors • Valuation considerations should drive investment decisions • Skillful active management has the potential to add value
Investment overview FEG seeks to add value by utilizing active and passive solutions for both asset allocation and manager selection. Allocation Policy Manager Selection Global Diversification Index Strategies Risk Management Low Cost Passive Dynamic Allocation Active Managers Active Outperformance
Portfolio Design - Global Diversification • Portfolios should be constructed to help achieve diversification by global risk factors • Broad based view of asset allocation, with investments falling into one of four asset categories Global Diversification Index Strategies Dynamic Allocation Active Managers
Core and category portfolios GLOBAL EQUITY GLOBAL FIXED INCOME AND CREDIT REAL ASSETS* DIVERSIFYING STRATEGIES* Category Portfolios Fixed Income Real Assets Diversifying Strategies Equity Core Portfolios Capital Preservation 20/80 Income & Growth 40/60 Moderate Growth 70/30 Balanced 50/50 *Subject to availability
Portfolio Design - Index Strategies Index Strategies FEG’s philosophy incorporates passive and active strategies in different aspects of portfolio construction. We utilize passive solutions in the broad policy allocation to help provide low-cost global diversification while drawing upon active strategies to dynamically allocate between asset classes. Global Diversification Dynamic Allocation Active Managers • Index strategies are used where: • It can be difficult for active management to outperform over long periods of time • There is a significant cost savings to gaining beta exposure • ETFs or index funds can help provide targeted asset classes/ styles
Portfolio Design - Active Managers • FEG seeks to identify managers with: • Experienced personnel • Sound investment philosophy • Demonstrated ability to outperform Global Diversification Index Strategies Active Managers Dynamic Allocation
Portfolio Design - Dynamic Allocation Index Strategies Global Diversification FEG Portfolio Team seeks to add alpha through dynamic asset allocation decisions that overweight asset classes with an opportunity to out-perform in the mid to long-term time frame. The Opportunity: In January, 2005, FEG Advisors recognized the relatively attractive valuations in the largest 100 stocks in the US Equity Markets. Dynamic Allocation Active Managers • Key Considerations • Valuation – main criteria we focus on when making a portfolio change. • Sentiment – measures the pulse of market participants; their level of fear and greed. It comprises the stories that investors tell themselves. • Fundamentals – Fundamentals are what is happening now, which we then compare to the past and use to speculate about the future. We typically begin with a small position and build it incrementally. Consequently, we may be early investors in an emerging trend, holding the position until valuations normalize and significant profits are captured.
Flattening the Portfolio • The low return environment • The impact of interest rates and inflation on financial assets • Our recommendation to “flatten” portfolio allocations (i.e., reduce financial assets, equities and bonds, in favor of real assets and diversifying strategies) • can help improve return potential • can help to diversify risk • Source: FEG Data Source: FEG Data
Duration tailwind • From 1981 through 1999, equities returned an unprecedented annualized return of 18.5% while bonds returned 10% annualized • Performance was supported by the decline of interest rates (i.e., bond yields), which resulted in an expansion of credit and supported a secular bull market in equities that drove price/earnings multiples higher
Duration tailwind • Uniquely strong returns in the 1980s and 1990s allowed a simple equity/bond portfolio to meet investors’ goals Two easy decades - but not the norm Source: Ibbotson Associates and Barclays Capital • Return objectives vary, we use 8% for illustration
EMPHASIS ON VALUE • Russell data since 1979 reiterates conclusion from Fama and French • The “value premium” has been more pronounced in Small Cap than Large Cap • The recent outperformance of Small Cap Growth over Small Cap Value is rare Large Cap Growth has outperformed Large Cap Value in 60% of historical 5-year periods Small Cap Value has outperformed Small Cap Growth in 83% of historical 5-year periods Source: FEG Data
EMPHASIS ON VALUE • Relative valuations are near historical norms suggesting the tactical posture return to “strategic equilibrium”, specifically a bias toward Value Source: Rimes
OVERWEIGHT EMERGING MARKETS • Emerging markets are attractive for 4 primary reasons: • Valuations • Expected economic growth • Demographic trends • Low debt-to-GDP
OVERWEIGHT EMERGING MARKETS Valuations
OVERWEIGHT EMERGING MARKETS > 7% 5% to 7% 3% to 5% < 3% China Indonesia Australia Austria India Malaysia Brazil Belgium Taiwan Canada Denmark Thailand Chile Finland Hong Kong France Ireland Germany Israel Greece Mexico Italy New Zealand Jamaica Norway Japan Poland Netherlands Russia Portugal Singapore Spain South Africa Switzerland South Korea Sweeden Turkey Ukraine United Arab Emirates United Kingdom United States Zimbabwe Emerging Markets Developed Markets • Expected Economic Growth • Estimated GDP Compound Annual Growth Rates 2011-2015 Source: IMF, Everest Capital
OVERWEIGHT EMERGING MARKETS • Demographic Trends • Developed countries have aging populations Source: PIMCO
OVERWEIGHT EMERGING MARKETS • Demographic Trends • Emerging economies will have a greater percentage in working age Source: PIMCO
OVERWEIGHT EMERGING MARKETS • Debt to GDP • Lower in emerging economies than developed economies
DOUBLELINE • DoubleLine (DBLTX) exhibits a high current yield (7.5%) and a low historical volatility (see below) • The management team is experienced and proven • The supply of non-agency Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) is shrinking • Combining agency and non-agency MBS helps reduce expected risks Annualized Volatility Inception of Strategy at TCW Investment Management Company to Present August 1993 – May 2012: 3.95% DoubleLine-Branded Strategy to Present April 2010 – May 2012: 2.94% Source: Morningstar
Current emphasis GLOBAL EQUITY GLOBAL FIXED INCOME & CREDIT REAL ASSETS DIVERSIFYING STRATEGIES Overweight Emerging Markets and International Small Cap Strategic weight Tactical emphasis on Residential Mortgage Backed Securities Absolute Return Strategies Emphasize a Value tilt and Fundamental Indexing Underweight Treasuries Commodities, MLPs and hedged REITs Uncorrelated Return Streams
Biography Michael J. Oyster, CFA Managing Principal - Portfolio Strategist • B.B.A. in Finance, University of Cincinnati • Investment professional since 1994 • FEG team member since 1999 Career Highlights: • Author. 2005. Mission Possible, Achieving Outperformance in a Low-Return World. Chicago: Dearborn Trade. Prior experience: • Schaeffer Investment Research, Inc. – Senior Quantitative Analyst Memberships: • CFA Society of Cincinnati • CFA Institute • FEG Investment Policy Committee Michael J. Oyster 513.719.5120 moyster@feg.com www.feg.com The CFA designation is a professional certification issued by the CFA Institute to qualified financial analysts who: (i) have a bachelor’s degree and four years of professional experience involving investment decision making or four years of qualified work experience[full time, but not necessarily investment related]; (ii) complete a self-study program (250 hours of study for each of the three levels); (iii) successfully complete a series of three six-hour exams; and (iv) pledge to adhere to the CFA Institute Code of Ethics and Standards of Professional Conduct.
FEG ADVISOR SUPPORT TEAM INTERNAL SUPPORT WEST EAST Matthew J. Boyko Matthew J. Mullane Jeremiah Whiteley mboyko@feg.com 513.719.5145 jwhiteley@feg.com 269.720.3332 mmullane@feg.com 720.975.7485
Disclosures This one on one report was prepared by Fund Evaluation Group, LLC (FEG), a federally registered investment adviser under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, as amended, providing non-discretionary and discretionary investment advice to its clients on an individual basis. Registration as an investment adviser does not imply a certain level of skill or training. The oral and written communications of an adviser provide you with information about which you determine to hire or retain an adviser. Fund Evaluation Group, LLC, Form ADV Part 2A & 2B can be obtained by written request directed to: Fund Evaluation Group, LLC, 201 East Fifth Street, Suite 1600, Cincinnati, OH 45202 Attention: Compliance Department. The information herein was obtained from various sources. FEG does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of such information provided by third parties. The information in this report is given as of the date indicated and believed to be reliable. FEG assumes no obligation to update this information, or to advise on further developments relating to it. FEG, its affiliates, directors, officers, employees, employee benefit programs and client accounts may have a long position in any securities of issuers discussed in this report. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed in this report constitutes an offer, or an invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any securities. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Index performance results do not represent any managed portfolio returns. An investor cannot invest directly in a presented index, as an investment vehicle replicating an index would be required. An index does not charge management fees or brokerage expenses, and no such fees or expenses were deducted from the performance shown. This report is prepared for informational purposes only. It does not address specific investment objectives, or the financial situation and the particular needs of any person who may receive this report.
Firm contact information 201 East Fifth Street Suite 1600 Cincinnati, OH 45202 Phone: 513.977.4400 Fax: 513.977.4430 www.feg.com Satellite Offices: Detroit / Indianapolis