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Calculation of Minimum Failure Cost For Bridge Elements in Pontis BMS

2. Minimum Failure Cost Calculation. IntroductionWhy Failure Cost is needed in OptimizationWhy Failure Cost should exceed a minimum valueLong Term CostFormulaCalculation MethodExample. Minimum Failure CostFormulation Variation with different environments

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Calculation of Minimum Failure Cost For Bridge Elements in Pontis BMS

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    1. 1 Calculation of Minimum Failure Cost For Bridge Elements in Pontis BMS

    2. 2 Minimum Failure Cost Calculation Introduction Why Failure Cost is needed in Optimization Why Failure Cost should exceed a minimum value Long Term Cost Formula Calculation Method Example

    3. 3 Why We Need Failure Cost in Optimization Model

    4. 4 Why Failure Cost Should Exceed a Minimum Value

    5. 5 Long Term Cost of Actions

    6. 6 LT Cost Calculation Method

    7. 7 Long Term Cost Example

    8. 8 Long Term Cost For Iteration 1

    9. 9 Long Term Failure Cost For Iteration 1

    10. 10 Long Term Cost – Iteration 1 Summary

    11. 11 Long Term Cost – Iteration 2 Summary

    12. 12 Long Term Cost - Last Iteration

    13. 13 Long Term Failure Cost - Last Iteration

    14. 14 Long Term Cost– Last Iteration Summary

    15. 15

    16. 16 Failure Cost Formulation

    17. 17 Failure Cost = RC x FRF

    18. 18 The FRF factor that results in a Minimum Failure Cost is the one for which the minimum long term cost in the last condition state becomes Doing Something after being Doing Nothing for the previous FRF factor. FRF of Minimum Failure Cost

    19. 19 Failure Cost – Environment 1

    20. 20 Failure Cost – Environment 2

    21. 21 Failure Cost – Environment 3

    22. 22 Min. Failure Cost = FRF * RC

    23. 23 Minimum Failure Cost Variation With Environments

    24. 24 Failure Cost For 0.91 Discount Rate

    25. 25 Failure Cost For 0.92 Discount Rate

    26. 26 Failure Cost For 0.95 Discount Rate

    27. 27 Minimum Failure Cost Calculation Method

    28. 28 Minimum Failure Cost Calculation Method

    29. 29 Minimum Failure Cost Calculation Method

    30. 30 Minimum Failure Cost Calculation Method

    31. 31

    32. 32

    33. 33 Sensitivity of the Failure Cost to the Probability of Failure

    34. 34 Applying Method to All Pontis CoRe Element

    35. 35 FC Models of CoRe Elements

    36. 36 Assume any value greater than zero for the failure cost (e.g. Failure Cost = Cost of Replacing the element) Find the long-term cost values for the last condition state (run the Optimization Model in Pontis) Find the ratio of the minimum long-term cost of “Do Something” over the long-term cost of “Do Nothing” in the last condition state Multiply that ratio by the assumed failure cost and by a factor slightly greater than one (e.g. 1.05) to guarantee the selection of a Do Something action Minimum Failure Cost = Assumed FC * Min LTC Do Something / LTC Do Nothing * 1.05 Repeat Steps 2 to 4 to get the minimum Failure Cost Calculating The Failure Cost in Pontis

    37. 37 CONCLUSIONS Different element ENVIRONMENTS have different Minimum Failure Costs Different DISCOUNT RATES Result in different Minimum Failure Costs The major factor affecting the Minimum Failure Cost is PROBABILITY of FAILURE Minimum Failure Cost is calculated as follows Assume an initial failure cost value Calculate the Long Term Cost Minimum Failure Cost = Assumed FC * Minimum Long-Term Cost of Do Something / Long Term Cost of Do Nothing * 1.05 Repeat Step 2 & 3 until convergence.

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