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Climate Outlook – November 2010

Climate Outlook – November 2010. La Nina Weakens Slightly to Moderate Level. SST forecast and Obs for Recently Completed Season. ASO 2010 SST forecast from Jun. Correlation (w.r.t. map average) Glob 0.66 Trop 0.85 Uncentered correlation (w.r.t. clim average):

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Climate Outlook – November 2010

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  1. Climate Outlook – November 2010 La Nina Weakens Slightly to Moderate Level

  2. SST forecast and Obs for Recently Completed Season ASO 2010 SST forecast from Jun Correlation (w.r.t. map average) Glob 0.66 Trop 0.85 Uncentered correlation (w.r.t. clim average): Glob 0.69 Trop 0.82 ASO 2010 SST obs anom (deg C)

  3. SST and Precipitation Obs for Recently Completed Season ASO 2010 SST obs anom (deg C) warm cold ASO 2010 precip anom (mm/day) wet dry

  4. Verification of Most Recent Season Precipitation Forecast ASO 2010 precip tercile categ obs Verification: G: globe T: tropics this (mean forcst 1997→) rpss: G 0.026 (0.008) T 0.051 (0.016) likelihood: G 0.012 (0.004) T 0.023 (0.008) Heidke: G 0.082 (0.042) T 0.149 (0.070) GROC: G 0.557 (0.540) T 0.598 (0.566) ASO 2010 precip probab forecast from mid-Jul

  5. Verification of Most Recent Season Temperature Forecast ASO 2010 temp tercile categ obs Verification: G: globe T: tropics this (mean forcst 1997→) rpss: G 0.248 (0.121) T 0.301 (0.188) likelihood: G 0.130 (0.058) T 0.165 (0.097) Heidke: G 0.499 (0.309) T 0.603 (0.427) GROC: G 0.683 (0.579) T 0.732 (0.631) ASO 2010 temp probab forecast from mid-Jun

  6. Last week’s SST anomaly | | | | | | | | | | | --------------------------------------------------------------------

  7. Stronger El Niño El Nino Oct La Nina StrongerLa Niña

  8. * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * El Nino’s maximum influence on climate Outgoing Longwave Radiation Anomalies 5N – 5S Climate Prediction Center NCEP La Nina signature

  9. Stronger La Niña **** ***** ******* ***** StrongerEl Niño

  10. mid-Aug

  11. mid-Sep

  12. mid-Oct

  13. mid-Nov

  14. Nov 2008 Nov 2009 Nov 2010 Enhanced trades continue Below-average thermocline depth continues ENSO state: Slight weakening to moderate La Nina conditions

  15. Recent phase and strength of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) mid- Nov 2010 mid- Oct 2010 strong weak MJO MJO + + moderate/ strong La Nina moderate/ strong La Nina = = moderate La Nina moderate/ strong La Nina

  16. (SST, sea level pressure, winds, cloudiness, convection)

  17. Nino3.4 SST anomaly predictions from October

  18. Nino3.4 SST anomaly predictions from November

  19. from October

  20. from November

  21. November 2010 SST forecasts (plus and minus uncertainty scenarios at right) PLUS MEAN MINUS

  22. wet dry La Nina probabilistic composite for Nov-Jan 0.33

  23. wet dry La Nina probabilistic composite for Dec-Feb 0.33

  24. Wrap-up of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season IRI’s forecast was for a 55% chance for above-normal number of named storms for Aug-Sep-Oct (i.e., ≥10). We had 17. IRI’s forecast was for a 55% chance for above-normal ACE (i.e. ≥130% of normal). We had 208% for the season overall (not just for Aug-Sep-Oct). So far, 2010 has the 2nd most hurricanes ever (12), the 3rd most named storms (19), and the 12th highest ACE (~159 x 104 kt2). The U.S. was spared landfall, but Mexico, the Lesser Antilles, Central America and Bermuda were hit fairly hard.

  25. Tropical Cyclone ForecastsNovember 2010 NTC = Number of Tropical Cyclones ACE = Accumulated Cyclone Energy

  26. Six IRI focus areas: 12-year skill of IRI precipitation forecasts RPSS GROC RPSS GROC score R G R G R G R G R G R G

  27. This ppt file is available to anyone on the shared drive: ……/tonyb/iri_html /fctbriefingmonyr

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