Developing Services Statistics in Singapore

1. Developing Services Statistics in Singapore Presentation at the International Forum on Metropolitan Statistics - Beijing 2008 Dr Soon Teck Wong Director Economic Accounts Division Singapore Department of Statistics

2. Outline • Introduction • Overview of Singapore’s services economy • Classifications for the services industries • Short-term indicators for the services industries • On-going and future development

3. Introduction • Accounting for about two-thirds of Singapore's GDP, the services sector is central and critical to the economy of a city state like Singapore • Measuring services output is inherently difficult • Unlike manufacturing, the services industries are heterogeneous and often made up of a large number of small businesses • Singapore uses • Comprehensive annual survey data, available about 12-18 months after reference year • Short term proxy indicators for quarterly GDP compilation

4. Overview of Singapore’s Services Economy

5. Overview of Singapore’s Services Economy

6. Overview of Singapore’s Services Economy

7. Overview of Singapore’s Services Economy

8. Classifications for the Services Industries By Major Industry Groups • Singapore Standard Industrial Classification (SSIC) 2005 which is based on ISIC, Revision 4 • Broad sections for services increased from 10 to 14, in recognition of increasing variety and heterogeneity of services • Reflecting the importance of telecommunications, IT-related and media services, new section ‘Information and Communications’ was created

9. Classifications for the Services Industries By Clusters • Increasing needs for data based on groups of industries from more than one section • Some international organisations proposing definitions for some clusters to facilitate international comparisons • ICT cluster (OECD) • Cultural sector (UNESCO)

10. Short Term Indicators for the Services Industries Administrative data • As far as possible, DOS relies on administrative sources for short term indicators • High frequency • Comprehensive • Less labour-intensive than surveys • Reduces respondent burden

11. Short Term Indicators for the Services Industries Administrative data – Trade data • TradeNet • Nation-wide comprehensive electronic data interchange system for trade documentation • Provides comprehensive monthly information on Singapore’s external trade • Monthly data available within 1 week from end of reference month

12. Short Term Indicators for the Services Industries Administrative data – Tourism-related data • Data collected include • Visitor arrivals • Room days occupied • Average occupancy rate • Hotel room and F&B revenue • Monthly data available about 4 weeks after reference month

13. Short Term Indicators for the Services Industries Administrative Data - Transportation Data • Data collected include • Aircraft landings • Air passenger arrivals and departures • Sea and air cargo handled • Vessel arrivals • Container throughput • Data generally available 4 – 6 weeks after end of reference period

14. Short Term Indicators for the Services Industries Data from High-Frequency Surveys • Collects minimal information from a small number of establishments that account for a relatively large share of total industry VA • Key economic indicators are derived from such surveys

15. Short Term Indicators for the Services Industries Data from High-Frequency Surveys • Monthly surveys • Retail sales • Restaurants and other F&B outlets • Turnover data collected used to compile retail sales index and catering trade index • Indices available with 4-week lag

16. Short Term Indicators for the Services Industries Data from High-Frequency Surveys • Quarterly surveys • Wholesale trade • Services • Turnover data collected used to compile wholesale trade index and business receipts index • Indices available with 6 - 8 week lag

17. On-going and Future Development Measurement of output • Need for continuous review and improvement of data sources and indicators • Increasing recognition of inadequacy of input-based approach for non-market services • Monitoring developments • Actively developing new indicators and methodologies to better capture output of non-market activities

18. On-going and Future Development Better Data Coverage of Services Industries • Continuously developing more appropriate indicators to replace input-based indicators • Increasing sample size and scope of services industries covered by the Quarterly Survey of Services (QSS) • Exploring supplementing QSS data using Goods and Services Tax data

19. On-going and Future Development Development of Services Producer Price Indices • Deflation by price index is preferred over extrapolation with volume indicator to obtain real measures of output

20. Conclusion • Need for timeliness and reduction of respondent burden adds to the challenge of developing short term indicators for services • Despite these difficulties, DOS has developed a fairly comprehensive range of timely short-term indicators of the performance of the services industries • DOS will continue to review and develop more appropriate indicators and methodologies for the evolving services economy

21. Thank You