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Y’all Need a Runninback ?

By: Chris Torgalski & Jin Lee. Y’all Need a Runninback ?. A running back (RB) is a position on a football team. He usually lines up behind the linemen and the quarterback. His job is to take handoffs and pitches, occasionally go out for passes, and to block for the quarterback.

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Y’all Need a Runninback ?

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  1. By: Chris Torgalski & Jin Lee Y’all Need a Runninback?

  2. A running back (RB) is a position on a football team. He usually lines up behind the linemen and the quarterback. His job is to take handoffs and pitches, occasionally go out for passes, and to block for the quarterback. He is also referred to as a tailback or halfback. What Is a Running back?

  3. Is there a relationship between loss of production and turning 30 years old for NFL running backs? • Rushing Yards • Rushing Touchdowns • What is the average amount of Pro Bowls a running back makes? What We Want to Find

  4. List of running drafted between 1995 and 2004 Assign each player a number Randomly generate a number until we had a list of 50 running backs that met our criteria without any repeats How We Collected Data

  5. Ho: µrushing difference = 0 Ha: µrushing difference > 0 1 Sample T-Test:Rushing Yards Difference (yards at 25-yards at 30) State Check 1)SRS 1) Stated random 2) Pop ≥ 10n 2) All RB in history ≥ 500 3)Normal pop or n ≥ 30 3) n = 50 Conditions met -> t distribution -> 1 sample t-test P(T > 3.457 l df = 49) = .00057 = 3.457 We reject the HO because our P-value of .00057 < alpha = .05. We have sufficient evidence that the rushing difference between age 25 and 30 for running backs is greater than 0. This means running rush for more yards at age 25 than they do at age 30.

  6. df= 49 1 Sample T-Interval:Rushing Yards Difference (yards at 25-yards at 30) State Check 1)SRS 1) Stated random 2) Pop ≥ 10n 2) All RB in history ≥ 500 3)Normal pop or n ≥ 30 3) n = 50 Conditions met -> t distribution -> 1 sample t-interval = (123.384 , 465.976) We are 95% confident that the true difference in rushing yards between ages 25 and 30 is 123.384 and 465.976 yards.

  7. Shape: unimodal, symmetric Center: mean - 295.413 Spread: (-869,1566) Most running backs rush for about 295.413 more yards when they are 25 than when they are 30. Rushing Difference Graphs

  8. Ho: µtouchdown difference = 0 Ha: µtouchdown difference > 0 1 Sample T-Test:Rushing Touchdown Difference (touchdowns at 25- touchdowns at 30) State Check 1)SRS 1) Stated random 2) Pop ≥ 10n 2) All RB in history ≥ 500 3)Normal pop or n ≥ 30 3) n = 50 Conditions met -> t distribution -> 1 sample t-test P(T > 2.485 l df = 49) = .0082 = 2.485 We reject the HO because our P-value of .0082 < alpha = .05. We have sufficient evidence that the touchdown difference between age 25 and 30 for running backs is greater than 0. This means running rush for more touchdowns at age 25 than they do at age 30.

  9. df= 49 1 Sample T-Interval:Rushing Yards Difference (yards at 25-yards at 30) State Check 1)SRS 1) Stated random 2) Pop ≥ 10n 2) All RB in history ≥ 500 3)Normal pop or n ≥ 30 3) n = 50 Conditions met -> t distribution -> 1 sample t-interval = (.447338 , 4.23266) We are 95% confident that the true difference in rushing touchdowns between ages 25 and 30 is .447338 and 4.23266 touchdowns.

  10. Shape: unimodal, roughly symmetric Center: mean - 2.34 Spread: (-20,20) Most running backs score about 2.34 touchdowns more when they are 25 then when they are 30. Touchdown Difference Graphs

  11. Ho: µpro bowls made = 1 Ha: µpro bowls made > 1 1 Sample T-Test:Pro Bowls Made State Check 1)SRS 1) Stated random 2) Pop ≥ 10n 2) All RB in history ≥ 500 3)Normal pop or n ≥ 30 3) n = 50 Conditions met -> t distribution -> 1 sample t-test P(T > 1.275 l df = 49) = .1 = 1.275 We fail to reject the HO because our P-value of .1 > alpha = .05. We have sufficient evidence that running backs make 1 Pro Bowl during their career in the NFL.

  12. df= 49 1 Sample T-Interval:Pro Bowls Made State Check 1)SRS 1) Stated random 2) Pop ≥ 10n 2) All RB in history ≥ 500 3)Normal pop or n ≥ 30 3) n = 50 Conditions met -> t distribution -> 1 sample t-intevral = (.838827 , 1.72117) We are 95% confident that the true number of Pro Bowls that a running back makes during his career in the NFL is between .838827 and 1.72117 Pro Bowls.

  13. Shape: unimodal, right-skewed Center: median - 1 Spread: (0,5) Most running backs make about 1 Pro Bowl. Pro Bowls Made Graphs

  14. Formula: RY@30 = .286(RY@25) + 300 Interpretation: rushing yards at 25 times .286 plus 300 = rushing yards at 30 Rushing Yards Scatterplot

  15. Formula: TD@30 = .116(TD@25) + 2.8 Interpretation: touchdowns at 25 times .116 plus 2.8 = touchdowns at 30 Touchdown Scatterplot

  16. Age 25 Stats • Yards: 1298 • Touchdowns: 12 • Age 30 prediction • Yards: 671.228 • Touchdowns: 4.192 Who is this running back? Adrian Peterson

  17. Age 25 Stats • Yards: 1364 • Touchdowns: 11 • Age 30 prediction • Yards: 690.104 • Touchdowns: 4.076 Who is this running back? Chris Johnson

  18. Age 25 Stats • Yards: 1008 • Touchdowns: 13 • Age 30 prediction • Yards: 588.288 • Touchdowns: 4.308 Who is this running back? BenJarvius Green-Ellis

  19. Age 25 Stats • Yards: 1515 • Touchdowns: 18 • Age 30 prediction • Yards: 733.29 • Touchdowns: 4.888 Who is this running back? Deangelowilliams

  20. Age 25 Stats • Yards: 1324 • Touchdowns: 5 • Age 30 prediction • Yards: 678.664 • Touchdowns: 3.38 Who is this running back? Maurice Jones Drew

  21. Age 25 Stats • Yards: 1042 • Touchdowns: 7 • Age 30 prediction • Yards: 598.012 • Touchdowns: 3.612 Who is this running back? Steven Jackson

  22. Running backs are better statistically at age 25 than they are at age 30. This means running backs should work to become productive earlier in their careers in order to obtain a large contract early. The player might want to work harder than planned at age 30 so that they can improve their production. Application

  23. The running back got hurt during their season for being 25 or 30 The running back could have been a starter for one season and a backup for the other The offensive line could have been better one year than it is the other. Bias/Error

  24. We would choose to have a running back age 25 on our team instead of a running back age 30 Running backs that are 25 score more touchdowns and gain more yards They will also be in the league longer due to younger age We found out running backs will make around one Pro Bowl in their career Conclusion/Opinion

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