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Exceptional European warmth of autumn 2006 and winter 2007 and its probability of recurrence

Exceptional European warmth of autumn 2006 and winter 2007 and its probability of recurrence. Mark A. Liniger Climate Analysis Climate Services, MeteoSwiss. Climate variability. Temperature anomaly September 2007. Overview. Characteristics? extent? other parameters? Processes? reasons?

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Exceptional European warmth of autumn 2006 and winter 2007 and its probability of recurrence

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  1. Exceptional European warmth of autumn 2006 and winter 2007 and its probability of recurrence Mark A. Liniger Climate Analysis Climate Services, MeteoSwiss

  2. Climate variability Temperature anomalySeptember 2007

  3. Overview • Characteristics? extent? other parameters? • Processes? reasons? • How unusual? in past 50yrs? in past 500 yrs? • Has it been foreseen/predicted? • Consistent with observed trends? • Future? climate change? • Year 2007 / 2008

  4. ObservationsAnomalies vs. 1961 – 1990 Autumn 2006 Winter 2006/07

  5. Synoptic flow Autumn 2006 Winter 2006/07 Correlation analysis

  6. Past 500 autumns

  7. Past 500 winters

  8. Autumn forecast

  9. Winter forecast

  10. Mean vs. standard deviation diagram

  11. Observations vs. climate models Central European Temperature 1961– 2005 IPCC AR4: HADCM,HADGEM,CSIRO,CGCM,MPI,GFDL CM,NCAR PCM

  12. A2A1BB1 Climate scenarios Central European Temperature 2070 – 2099 IPCC AR4: HADCM,HADGEM,CSIRO,CGCM,MPI,GFDL CM,NCAR PCM

  13. Autumn and winter 2007? Temperature anomalySeptember 2007 Monthly forecast (October) Switzerland Seasonal forecast Europe

  14. Conclusions • Autumn • extremely rare (>4 SD) • N-W Europe • Winter • stronger but less exceptional (max 2 SD) • S-E Europe • Strong anticyclonic conditions and warm air advection from south west • Both seasons extremely likely the warmest for more than 500 years. • Seasonal forecasts indicated correct sign of anomaly • Relative changes of temperature • climate models consistent with observations, except autumn • changes in mean dominate changes in variability • Autumn 2007: less warm • Winter 2007/08: high uncertainty

  15. Publications • Schär, C.; Vidale, P. L.; Luthi, D.; Frei, C.; Häberli, C.; Liniger, M. A. & Appenzeller, C. (2004), “The role of increasing temperature variability in European summer heatwaves”, Nature 427(6972), 332--336. • Scherrer, S. C.; Appenzeller, C.; Liniger, M. A. & Schar, C. (2005), “European temperature distribution changes in observations and climate change scenarios”, Geophys Res Lett 32(19), L19705. • Scherrer, S. C.; Appenzeller, C. & Liniger, M. A. (2006), “Temperature trends in Switzerland and Europe: Implications for climate normals”, International Journal Of Climatology 26(5), 565--580. • Luterbacher, J.; Liniger, M. A.; Menzel, A.; Estrella, N.; Della-Marta, P. M.; Pfister, C.; Rutishauser, T.; Xoplaki, E. (2007), “Exceptional European warmth of autumn 2006 and winter 2007: Historical context, the underlying dynamics, and its phenological impacts”. Geophys. Res. Lett., 34 (12), L12704 • Scherrer, S. C.; M. A. Liniger & Appenzeller, C. (2007 in press), Climate variability and extremes during the past 100 years, Springer, chapter “Distribution changes of seasonal mean temperature in observations and climate change scenarios”.

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