MULTIPLE REGRESSION MODELS FOR FORECASTING OF INLAND PASSENGER RAILWAY TRANSPORTATION IN LATVIA

1. MULTIPLE REGRESSION MODELS FOR FORECASTING OF INLAND PASSENGER RAILWAY TRANSPORTATION IN LATVIA Roman Gorky1, Eugene Kopytov1, Vasilijs Demidovs1,2 1Transport and Telecommunication Institute Lomonosova Str. 1, Riga, LV-1019, Latvia 2State Join-Stock Company “Latvian Railway” Information Technology Centre Turgeneva 21, Riga, LV-1050, Latvia E-mail: rgorky@gmail.com, kopitov@tsi.lv; dem@ldz.lv

2. Index 1 Introduction 1.1 Relevance of the theme 1.2 Current research 1.3 Actual research sources 1.4 Object structure and statistics 2 Research 2.1 The purpose of the research 2.2 Research objects and objectives 3 Regression model 3.1 Data source and tools 3.2 Regression model and data analysis 4 Conclusion RELSTAT'12 19.10.2012

3. 1.1 Relevance of the theme In the present economic conditions the main volume of passenger rail transportation in Latvia is performed in local lines. To plan passenger rail transportation it is necessary to perform detailed analysis and forecasting of passenger flows in separate sectors, lines and regions of the railway on the whole territory of Latvia. RELSTAT'12 19.10.2012 3

4. 1.2 The main directions of current research in the field of passenger transport • Decision support system (DSS) • Issues related to the ecology • Improving the safety of passengers • Solve local government problems • Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) RELSTAT'12 19.10.2012 4

5. 1.3 Actual research sources* • ERA-NET Transport (ENT) – is a sustainable network of national transport research programs in Europe (www.transport-era.net) • International Conference Series on Competition and Ownership in Land Passenger Transport - www.thredbo-conference-series.org • Transport Research Knowledge Centre - www.transport-research.info • Mendeley - one of the world’s largest crowd-sourced research (www.mendeley.com) • Sydney eScholarship Repository - ses.library.usyd.edu.au * Full list on website: bialive.org (“Links” category) RELSTAT'12 19.10.2012 5

6. 1.4 Passengertransportation modes in Latvia RELSTAT'12 19.10.2012 6

7. 1.4 PASSENGER TURNOVER (mln passenger-kilometres) Latvia joined the Schengen zone in 2007 The financial crisis of 2007–2008 Latvia is a member of the Baltic Free Trade Area (1994–2004) Latvia has been a member of the European Union and NATO since 2004 Dissolution of the Soviet Union 1991 Latvia has been a member of WTO since 1999 RELSTAT'12 19.10.2012 7

8. 1.4 PASSENGER TRAFFIC (mln passengers) Latvia joined the Schengen zone in 2007 The financial crisis of 2007–2008 Latvia is a member of the Baltic Free Trade Area (1994–2004) Latvia has been a member of the European Union and NATO since 2004 Dissolution of the Soviet Union 1991 Latvia has been a member of WTO since 1999 RELSTAT'12 19.10.2012 8

9. 1.4 Organizationof the regional passenger transportation in Latvia VIPUS VBTS RELSTAT'12 19.10.2012 9

10. 2.1 The purpose of the research Analysing and forecasting of passenger flows on the railway in Latvian regions using the regression analysis method. RELSTAT'12 19.10.2012 10

11. 2.2 The administrative division of Latvia RELSTAT'12 19.10.2012 11

12. 2.2 Regional scheme of Latvian Railway RELSTAT'12 19.10.2012 12

13. 2.2 Multiple regression model of passenger transportations in the regions and cities of Latviain 2003 RELSTAT'12 19.10.2012 13

14. 2.2 Research objectives The objective is to investigate the model after the crisis approach in year 2007 and 2008 during the period of recession in Latvia. RELSTAT'12 19.10.2012

15. 3.1 Data source • Nodarbinātības valsts aģentūras - http://www.nva.lv/ • Lursoft - http://www.lursoft.lv/ • Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia - http://www.csb.gov.lv/ • Pasažieru vilcienu biļešu pārdošanas sistēma - VIPUS * Full list on website: bialive.org (“Statistics” category) RELSTAT'12 19.10.2012 15

16. 3.1 Tools • Oracle MySQL Data Base • MS Excel (PivotTable for cube building) • StatSoft Statistica Model calibration & validation RELSTAT'12 19.10.2012

17. 3.2 RailwayPassenger Turnover RELSTAT'12 19.10.2012 17

18. 3.2 Railway Passenger Dynamic RELSTAT'12 19.10.2012 18

19. 3.2 The results of smoothening the data on passenger transportations in the regions and cities of Latviafrom 2009-2011 Regional regression model City regression model RELSTAT'12 19.10.2012 19

20. 3.2 The spread of the calculated data from the actual valuesin % RELSTAT'12 19.10.2012

21. 3.2 Regression model RELSTAT'12 19.10.2012

22. 3.2 Regression modelqualitycoefficients RELSTAT'12 19.10.2012

23. 4 Conclusion (1) According to regression models the conclusion has been done that these models can't be used in long-term perspective. The consequences are: • Changes of dynamics after crisis (pre-crisis models don't work any more) • Statistical data in Latvia is characterized by incompleteness and low reliability of basic data • Diverse systems are used for collecting and storage transport data in IS (data transformation and calibration is necessary) • Indistinct policy of the company and stochastic behavior of the passengers given on a turn RELSTAT'12 19.10.2012 23

24. 4 Conclusion (2) For improvement the quality of the developed regression models, the following is offered: • Inclusions of new variables in a model • Increase in volume of data by reduction of a time interval (quarter, month) • Increase of data reliability • Bigger accumulation of data after crisis time (for example, 5 years) • A certain policy of the company in long-term prospect on routes RELSTAT'12 19.10.2012

25. 4 Next Step The further direction of these researches is: • Regression model’s construction for bus regional passenger traffic • Researches of alternative methods of the multidimensional statistical analysis application possibility • Creation of accumulation system and collecting statistical data on passenger traffic RELSTAT'12 19.10.2012

26. Contacts Roman Gorky Transport and Telecommunication Institute Lomonosova Str. 1, Riga, LV-1019, Latvia E-mail: rgorky@gmail.com WEB: http://bialive.org RELSTAT'12 19.10.2012 26