Comparing Original and Revised RES Bills

1. Comparing Original and Revised RES Bills 1 Markey bill remained unchanged, and is not shown here

2. Modeling: Scenario-specific assumptions • Bingaman: entire 25% efficiency substitution option is taken each year by all suppliers • Markey: parallel EERS bill (H.R. 889) requiring cumulative 15% reduction in load in 2020 is NOT simulated • Waxman: entire 20% efficiency substitution taken each year by all suppliers; cumulative 15% reduction in load in 2020 due to EERS

3. Summary of RES Impacts

4. Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Scenario Case with RPS and EE reduces annual power sector CO2 emissions most

5. Impact of Scenarios on Electricity Prices Differences in calculated prices are small, generally less than 1%

6. Carbon Policy and Voluntary Markets • How will carbon cap affect consumer-driven markets? • Today (pre emissions cap) – many consumers and organizations buy RECs for their carbon footprints • Voluntary markets for RECs could be hindered if no carbon value; would market decline? • Under emission cap, renewables do not lower emissions (cap sets emissions level), avoided emissions can be claimed by emitters or sold to other emitters to meet cap National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future

7. Federal Climate Bills • Senate Kerry-Boxer Climate Bill (S. 1733) • Introduced Sept. 30, passed EPW committee 11-1 (early Nov) • 20% reduction in 2005 GHG emissions by 2020; 83% by 2050 • Output based allocation to renewable energy generators with capacity 10 MW or greater; up to 15% of the electric consumer allocation (Section 202) • House Waxman-Markey Climate Bill (H. 2454) • Cleared floor vote 219-212 on June 26 • 17% reduction in 2005 GHG emissions by 2020; 83% by 2050 • SEED allocations to states for renewables and efficiency (set aside, but unclear how it would be allocated, up to states)

8. Voluntary Market Set Asides • Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) • RGGI states retire allowances (lower cap) on behalf of voluntary renewable energy purchasers • Creates clear GHG emission reduction • Sellers of renewable energy must apply for program • Submit MWh of RE sold and equivalent CO2 allowances retired • California preliminary draft rules for cap and trade program include a similar set aside National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future

9. Is there a Need for Voluntary RE Markets? • If strong policies, are voluntary markets still needed? • Provide options for consumers • Raise awareness to benefits of renewable energy and need for renewables • Allow consumers to go beyond amount of renewables called for by policies (100% renewable) • Can complement RPS or policy-driven renewables by incentivizing technologies not driven by policy • So far, RPS policy adoption at state level has not damped demand; offset market experience similar National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future

10. Additional Information • Recent Reports: • Comparative Analysis of Proposed Federal Renewable Electricity Standards • http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy09osti/45877.pdf • Regional Supply and Demand Balance for Renewable Electricity • http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy09osti/45041.pdf • Green Power Marketing in the U.S.: A Status Report http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy09osti/46581.pdf • Energy Savings Certificate Markets • http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy09osti/45970.pdf • Implications of Carbon Regulation for • Green Power Markets • http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy07osti/41076.pdf