Navy Joint Integrated Air and Missile Defense: Cost Effective at the Margin

1. Navy Joint Integrated Air and Missile Defense: Cost Effective at the Margin Aaron B. Fuller, III President Defense Mission Engineering and Integration Division Computer Sciences Corporation NDIA Strike, Land Attack, and Air Defense Annual Symposium “The Future of the Navy in Joint Integrated Air and Missile Defense” (JIAMD) April 7, 2005

2. Topics 1. Good things come in threes • Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense Intercept • DDG 94 Commissioning • Nitze Criterion 2. JIAMD and Coalition Missile Defense 3. Persistent Global Collaboration 4. Aegis BMD Makes JIAMD Cost Effective at the Margin 5. Summary and Conclusion

3. Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense Success • Kauai, Pacific Missile Range Facility, February 24, 2005 • Aegis BMD exoatmospheric intercept in space over the Pacific • Tactical SM-3 interceptor launched from U.S.S. Lake Erie • Fifth success in six test events • Aegis fleets provide the platforms for global missile defenses • 62 + 17 U.S. Navy Aegis cruisers and destroyers • Japan, Spain, Norway, South Korea, Australia Aegis • Aegis also provides Long Range Search and Track to GMD • Later Aegis BMD Blocks provide additional capability CSC architects, designs and builds the Aegis and Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense software for U.S. and international fleets

4. SM-3 InterceptKauai, Hawaii - February 24, 2005 4

5. USS Nitze (DDG 94) • USS Paul Nitze • Commissioned March 5, 2005 • Norfolk, Virginia • 44th Aegis destroyer

6. Paul H. Nitze, 1907 - 2004 • One of the creators of 20th Century foreign and defense policy • 1944-46 – U.S. Strategic Bombing Survey • 1948 – Marshall Plan for European recovery • 1950 – NSC 68 “U.S. Objectives and Programs for National Security” • 1950-53 – State Department Policy & Plans • 1961-63 – ASD International Security • 1963-67 – Secretary of the Navy • 1967-69 – Deputy Secretary of Defense • 1969-73 – SALT Delegation • 1973-76 – ASD International Affairs • 1981-84 – Chief Negotiator INF Treaty • 1984 – Special Adviser to President Reagan

7. Marshall Plan At the State Department's Office of International Economic Affairs, Paul H. Nitze, James Stillwell, George McGhee, Ernest A. Gross and C. H. Bonesteel drawing up the European Recovery Plan known as the Marshall Plan. April 1, 1948.

8. Cold War Posture • 1950 – NSC 68 “U.S. Objectives and Programs for National Security” • “The whole success of the proposed program [political, economic, military confrontation with the Soviet Union] hangs ultimately on recognition by the Government, the American people and all free peoples, that the cold war is in fact a real war in which the survival of the free world is at stake.”

9. The “Walk in the Woods” The INF talks begin. Paul Nitze shakes hand with Soviet negotiator Yuli Kitsinsky in Geneva, December 1, 1981. The following summer, the two men would go for their famous "walk in the woods."

10. INF Treaty Paul Nitze meets with President Reagan in the Oval Office on May 12, 1983, to receive final instructions before returning to Geneva for the third round of the Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces (INF) talks.

11. Cost Effective at the Margin • Paul Nitze in 1985 • The measure of “goodness” for missile defense systems is that they should be “cost effective at the margin”. For relatively small additional marginal costs they provide large additions to warfighting capability. For relatively small additional marginal costs they impose large additional marginal costs on the adversary.

12. The Platforms and Capability For Coalition Missile Defense Are Built and Building Defense Transformation: Networking Missile Defense Cooperation With Coalition Partners

13. The Network Objective Persistent global collaboration • Near real-time to real time • Persistent: • Continuous • Refreshed • Redundant • Global: • Available everywhere relevant • Coverage everywhere relevant • Shared collaboration with joint and coalition

14. Reed’s Law REED’S LAW: The Network Effect in High Gear R R =Reed’s Law M =Metcalfe’s Law Network Effect (Value/Returns) Metcalfe’s Law Reed’s Law Transactions Examples Value of an N member network Connect Peers Create or join groups Yahoo! Classifieds, Email eBay, Chat rooms 2N N2 M Number of network participants/nodes Reed’s Law of group-forming networks, like Metcalfe’s Law, says there are increasing returns as the number of people or nodes on a network (N) increases. But with Reed’s Law, returns increase much faster (an exponential increase, 2N) than with Metcalfe’s Law (a square increase, N2). Source: David P. Reed

15. The Network Effect • The value of a network to each participant increases as you add more participants. • The underlying foundation for the dramatic growth of the internet/world wide web. • The underlying foundation for the attractiveness of bringing more and more participants into any network. • The scientific foundation for why network centric, network enabled capabilities offer tangible benefits for the warfighter. • In fact, the only reason that network centric, network enabled capabilities are of any value at all.

16. Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense Is Cost Effective at the Margin • Missile Defense offers the U.S. and coalition partners the “most cost effective at the margin” opportunity to participate in “building the network” for coalition warfighting capabilities. • The major costs have already been provided for in the building of the Aegis fleets in the U.S. and Japan, Spain, Norway, South Korea, and Australia. • $200 billion + • The marginal costs are small compared to the total costs already committed • Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense provides the most “cost effective at the margin” component of Joint Integrated Air and Missile Defense.

17. The Exponential Network Effects in Missile Defense are Offered By: • Multiple geographical sites • Multiple joint and coalition partners • Multiple sensors and weapons • Multiple U.S. and coalition Navy Aegis platforms for sensors and weapons • Aegis capable ships with BMD are the most cost effective part of the network

18. The Platforms and Capability For Coalition Missile Defense Are Built and Building Defense Transformation: Networking Missile Defense Cooperation With Coalition Partners

19. Summary and Conclusion • JIAMD provides the “Network Effect” • The gift that keeps on giving • As you add more participants you get exponentially more capability • Network effects are the tangible scientific foundation for network centric and network enabled capability • Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense meets the “Nitze Criterion” • Aegis ballistic missile defense is “cost effective at the margin” • The Aegis fleet continues to add new ships, both U.S. and international providing the foundation for the network effect in missile defense • U.S.S. Paul Nitze commissioned March 5, 2005 at Norfolk, Virginia