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Traders Forum: Durban

Traders Forum: Durban. Shaun van den Berg Head of Client Education Monday, 7 th October 2013 18h00 until 20h00. Agenda. Technical Market Overview Share Selection Process Fundamental checklist Technical checklist Discuss our last few trades on The Stockbroker

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Traders Forum: Durban

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  1. Traders Forum: Durban Shaun van den Berg Head of Client Education Monday, 7th October 2013 18h00 until 20h00

  2. Agenda • Technical Market Overview • Share Selection Process • Fundamental checklist • Technical checklist • Discuss our last few trades on The Stockbroker • Discuss our last recommendation for The Investor • Upcoming Webinars • Traders Forums • Summary • Conclusion

  3. Technical Market Overview • S&P 500 Index • Hang Seng Index • Nikkei Index • DAX Index • FTSE 100 Index

  4. S & P 500 (Weekly) Resistance Resistance Support Support Bullish

  5. Hang Seng Index (Weekly) Resistance Support Bullish

  6. Nikkei Index (Weekly) Resistance Support Bullish

  7. DAX Index (Weekly) Resistance Resistance Support Support Bullish

  8. FT 100 Index (Weekly) Resistance Resistance Support Bullish

  9. Technical Market Overview – Major Equity Markets • S&P 500 Index • Bullish / Rising Wedge? / Bearish Divergence • Hang Seng Index • Bullish / Neutral (Sideways)/ Testing resistance • Nikkei Index • Bullish / Flat Top Triangle forming / Testing support • DAX Index • Bullish / Up channel or Rising Wedge Reversal pattern? • FTSE 100 Index • Bullish / Triangle / Needs to breakout above resistance

  10. Technical Market Overview • Brent Crude Oil • Gold $ • Platinum $ • Euro / US $ • Rand $

  11. Brent Crude Oil Resistance Head RS LS Support Bullish

  12. Gold $ (Weekly) Resistance Support Support Bearish

  13. Platinum $ Bearish

  14. Euro/ USD (Weekly) Resistance Support Support USD Weakness

  15. Rand $ Resistance RS LS Head ZAR Weakness

  16. Technical Market Overview – Precious Metals & Currencies • Brent Crude Oil • Bullish / Head & Shoulders Reversal chart pattern? • Gold $ (Weekly) • Bearish / Down channel • Platinum $ • Bearish / Down channel / Testing support / Oversold • Euro / US $ • Dollar Weakness / Testing support (More weakness) • Rand $ • Rand Weakness / Inverted Head & Shoulders chart pattern?

  17. Technical Market Overview • JSE Top 40 Index • JSE Resources 20 Index • JSE Gold Mining Index • JSE Platinum Mining Index • JSE FINDI 30 Index

  18. JSE Top 40 Index (Weekly) Resistance Resistance Support Bullish

  19. JSE Resources 20 Index Resistance Support Support Bullish

  20. JSE Gold Mining Index Resistance Support Bearish

  21. JSE Platinum Mining Index Resistance Support Support Bullish (Just!)

  22. JSE FINDI 30 Index Resistance Support Bullish

  23. Summary: Technical Overview • JSE Top 40 Index (Weekly) • Bullish / Testing upper resistance of up channel/ Divergence • JSE Res 20 Index • Bullish / Sideways / Breaking support • JSE Gold Mining Index • Bearish / New Lows? / Ignoring Divergence • JSE Platinum Mining • Bullish (Just!) / Testing support • JSE FINDI 30 Index • Bullish / Up channel • Opportunities?

  24. Opportunities

  25. Technical Overview: Naspers

  26. Technical Overview: BATS

  27. Technical Overview: SAB Miller

  28. Technical Overview: Richemont

  29. Technical Overview: MTN Group

  30. Technical Overview: Sasol

  31. Technical Overview: BHP Billiton

  32. Technical Overview: Anglo

  33. Technical Overview: Kumba

  34. Technical Overview: GFields

  35. Technical Overview: Implats

  36. Share Selection Process

  37. The Share Selection Process My Watch List Step 2: Analysis Process Core Portfolio 8 - 12 Shares Step 1: Prospecting Process 3 x 30 Shares Watch List 400 Shares

  38. Prospecting: Top - Down Approach • International Markets • Economic Indicators • Exchange Rates • Precious Metals • Local Markets • Specific Sectors • Specific Shares • Checklists

  39. Prospecting: Financial Journalism • Read! Read! Read! • Bloomberg / Reuters/ CNN Money • Business Day / Business Report/ Sake • Financial Mail / FinWeek • PSG Online / MoneyWeb / Fin24 • Beware Analysis Paralysis • Scan Headlines – Shares you know • Look for Bad News

  40. Prospecting: Fundamental Analysis Undervalued P/E < 18 PEG < 75 P/NAV < 2 Profitable ROE % > 15% Interest Cover> 3 times Risk Management

  41. JSE Overall Index: PE ratio/ EY & DY

  42. Prospecting: Fundamental Analysis

  43. Prospecting: Fundamental Analysis • Value Search • Undervalued, Quality Shares • Quality rating > 70 • PEG > 35 < 75 • P/NAV <2 • ROE% > 15 • DY% 3.0%

  44. Prospecting: Fundamental Analysis

  45. Fundamental Analysis: Company Analysis

  46. Fundamental Analysis: Company Analysis

  47. Prospecting: Technical Analysis Trending Cycles / Moving Averages Trend Lines Support & Resistance Chart Patterns Overbought/Oversold Stochastic & RSI MACD OBV & VPT Outperformance/Underperformance Relative StrengthAnalysis

  48. Technical Analysis: Hi-Liter Scan

  49. Technical Analysis: MACD Oversold

  50. Technical Analysis: MACD Overbought

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