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Ahmed A. HADY

Deep Solar Minimum of Cycle23 and its Impact. Ahmed A. HADY. Astronomy Department Cairo University Egypt. Outlines. Deep Solar Minimum of cycle 23 Solar cycle 24 predictions and prediction conditions. -The Impact of the deep minimum. -Sun and Heliosphere under quiet and active

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Ahmed A. HADY

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  1. Deep Solar Minimum of Cycle23 and its Impact Ahmed A. HADY Astronomy Department Cairo University Egypt

  2. Outlines • Deep Solar Minimum of cycle 23 • Solar cycle 24 predictions and prediction • conditions. • -The Impact of the deep minimum. • -Sun and Heliosphere under quiet and active • solar conditions. • -Conclusions

  3. Introduction Due to the very deep minimum of solar cycle 23, which resulting is the quietest Sun that we have ever seen in almost a century, then the study of the impact and consequences of this deep minimum on the Heliospheric Physics will be the main central subject in this paper

  4. The downtrend line of the Cycle 23, in tilt angle from the peak in 2000 is broken

  5. Solar Maximum and Minimum of cycle 23

  6. Monthly and Yearly MeanSUNSPOT NUMBERSof Cycle23 ---------------------------------------------------------------- Year 2001: Monthly mean: 95.6 80.6 113.5 107.7 96.6 134.0 81.8 106.4 150.7 125.5 106.5 132.2 Yearly Means: 110.58 ---------------------------------------------------------------- Year 2003: Monthly mean: 79.7 46.0 61.1 60.0 54.6 77.4 83.3 72.7 48.7 65.5 67.3 46.5 Yearly Means: 63.57 ---------------------------------------------------------------- Year 2006: Monthly mean: 15.3 4.9 10.6 30.2 22.3 13.9 12.2 12.9 14.4 10.4 21.5 13.6 Yearly Means: 15.16 ---------------------------------------------------------------- Year 2007: Monthly mean: 16.8 10.7 4.5 3.4 11.7 12.1 9.7 6.0 2.4 0.9 1.7 10.1 Yearly Means: 7.5 Spotless Days 149 of 365 days ( 41% spotless days) ---------------------------------------------------------------- Year 2008: Monthly mean: 3.3 2.1 9.3 2.9 3.2 3.4 0.8 0.5 1.1 2.9 4.1 0.8 Yearly Means: 2.85 Spotless Days 266 of 366 days ( 73% spotless days) ---------------------------------------------------------------- Year 2009: Monthly mean:1.5 1.4 0.7 0.8 2.9 2.9 3.2 0.0 4.3 4.6 4.2 10.6 Yearly Means: 3.1 Spotless Days 274 of 365 days (75% spotless days)

  7. Monthly and Yearly mean of Flare Index of Solar full disk of Cycle 23 Year 2001, Yearly Mean = 6.80 Monthly Mean: 2.76 1.25 7.65 10.20 2.89 4.86 1.84 6.38 11.77 9.50 10.95 11.39 ---------------------------------------------------------------- Year 2003, Yearly Mean = 3.46 Monthly mean: 2.69 1.55 3.33 2.62 4.35 4.54 2.55 1.59 0.77 12.11 4.53 0.68 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Year 2006, Yearly Mean = 0.54 Monthly mean: 0.03 0.00 0.11 0.53 0.03 0.01 0.28 0.14 0.19 0.05 0. 4.89 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year 2007, Yearly Mean = 0.47 Monthly Mean: 0.49 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.24 1.53 1.16 0.21 0.00 0.00 0.01 1.88 ---------------------------------------------------------------- Year 2008, Yearly Mean = 0.03 Monthly Mean: 0.05 0.00 0.20 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.00 ---------------------------------------------------------------- Year 2009 , yearly Mean= 0.027 Monthly Mean: 0.04 0.00 0.03 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.20 Data From: Kandilli Observatory

  8. Spotless days percentage, during last century. Only 11 years , 3 of them during cycle23: 2009 Spotless Days (274 of 365 days , 75% spotless days) 2008 Spotless Days (266 of 366 days , 73% spotless days) 2007 Spotless Days (171 of 365 days , 47% spotless days) Typical solar minimum of Cycle 23: 711 spotless days. We’re experiencing a very deep solar minimum, during the last century

  9. DAILY SOLAR DATA: Most eruptive days during Minimum phase of Cycle23 And starting days of Cycle 24

  10. The Solar activity during Decline phase of Cycle 23. still Puzzle, like its minimum. 8-active region appeared during Halloween storm, October 2003. Region 0486 produced the two most important solar flares from 1976 until now

  11. Active Region 10486 Behavior Decline of CYCLE 23 Region 486 behavior from 2003/10/22 to 2003/11/03 before the region rotate behind western limb

  12. Movies of regions 10486 SoHo EIT X-Ray Flare (X28/3B) Nov 4, 2003

  13. Solar disk before the region 10486 rotate behind the western Limb UT 19:29  on November 4, 2003, and X-28 flare during that time. AR486 Before rotation

  14. Example of solar Storms SoHo EIT X-Ray Flare (X 17.2/4B ) 28 October 2003

  15. Predictions of Cycle 24 Predicting the behavior of a sunspot cycle is fairly reliable once the cycle is well underway. The techniques are used to predict the amplitude of a cycle during the time near and before sunspot minimum, the level of activity at sunspot minimum, and the size of the previous cycles. There are 3 methods for solar cycles predictions based on patterns: 1-The First method depend on that the value of the geomagnetic aa indexat its minimum was related to the sunspot number during the ensuing maximum.(by Ohl and Ohl, 1979) 2- Second method is due to a process suggested by Joan Feynman. She separates the geomagnetic aa index into two components: one in phase with and proportional to the sunspot number, the other component is then the remaining signal. 3-Third method is due to Richard Thompson [Solar Physics148, 383 (1993)]. He found a relationship between the number of days during a sunspot cycle in which the geomagnetic field was "disturbed" and the amplitude of the next sunspot maximum. His method has the advantage of giving a prediction for the size of the next sunspot maximum well before sunspot minimum.

  16. Solar cycle sunspot number: (monthly value = daily average of that month)

  17. Cycle 24 Sunspot Number Prediction cycle 24 Radio flux prediction

  18. MINIMA AND MAXIMA OF SUNSPOT NUMBER CYCLES ===================================================================================== Sunspot Year Smallest Year Largest Rise Fall Cycle Cycle of Smoothed of Smoothed to Max to Min Length Number Min* Monthly Mean** Max* Monthly Mean** (Yrs) (Yrs) (Yrs) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 1755.2 8.4 1761.5 86.5 6.3 5.0 11.3 2 1766.5 11.2 1769.7 115.8 3.2 5.8 9.0 3 1775.5 7.2 1778.4 158.5 2.9 6.3 9.2 4 1784.7 9.5 1788.1 141.2 3.4 10.2 13.6 5 1798.3 3.2 1805.2 49.2 6.9 5.4 12.3 6 1810.6 0.0 1816.4 48.7 5.8 6.9 12.7 7 1823.3 0.1 1829.9 71.7 6.6 4.0 10.6 8 1833.9 7.3 1837.2 146.9 3.3 6.3 9.6 9 1843.5 10.5 1848.1 131.6 4.6 7.9 12.5 10 1856.0 3.2 1860.1 97.9 4.1 7.1 11.2 11 1867.2 5.2 1870.6 140.5 3.4 8.3 11.7 12 1878.9 2.2 1883.9 74.6 5.0 5.7 10.7 13 1889.6 5.0 1894.1 87.9 4.5 7.6 12.1 14 1901.7 2.6 1907.0 64.2 5.3 6.6 11.9 15 1913.6 1.5 1917.6 105.4 4.0 6.0 10.0 16 1923.6 5.6 1928.4 78.1 4.8 5.4 10.2 17 1933.8 3.4 1937.4 119.2 3.6 6.8 10.4 18 1944.2 7.7 1947.5 151.8 3.3 6.8 10.1 19 1954.3 3.4 1957.9 201.3 3.6 7.0 10.6 20 1964.9 9.6 1968.9 110.6 4.0 7.6 11.6 21 1976.5 12.2 1979.9 164.5 3.4 6.9 10.3 22 1986.8 12.3 1989.6 158.5 2.8 6.8 9.7 23 1996.4*** 8.0 2000.3*** 120.8 4.0 10.5 14.5 My Estimation of cycle 24 24 2009.96 9.0 2015.2 105.0 5.24 11.8 17.o4 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Mean Cycle Values: 6.1 113.2 4.7 6.3 11.0

  19. This era Like another parallel with the Maunder Minimum

  20. The Maunder Minimum was not completely devoid of sunspots, as shown by this graph using data from SIDC

  21. This era Like another parallel with the Maunder Minimum There is approximately a 60 year delay between sunspot levels and radiocarbon changes

  22. The great uncertainty tell us: No one fully understands the underlying physics of the sunspot cycle

  23. Solar forcing 1850–2050 used in a NASA GISS climate model. Recent variation pattern used after 2000 Variations in total solar irradiance (TSI) were found to be the most likely cause of significant climate change prior to the industrial era by a U.S. National Academy of Sciences study

  24. Solar activities have had notable effect on palaeoclimatic changes. Contemporary solar activities are so weak and hence expected to cause global cooling. Prevalent global warming, caused by building-up of green-house gases in the atmosphere, seems to exceed this solar effect.

  25. Variations in total solar irradiance (TSI) were found to be the most likely cause of significant climate change prior to the industrial era (by a U.S. National Academy of Sciences study)

  26. The C14 Measurement during the last 1000 years, and climate changes

  27. Reconstruction of solar activity over 11,400 years. Period of equally high activity over 8,000 years ago marked

  28. Conclusion 1-Solar Cycle 23 until now has the Deepest Solar Minimum during the last 100 years 2- Failure of all Predictions of the behavior of a sunspot cycle Number 23. Failure of all early Predictions of the behavior of a sunspot cycle Number 24 during years 2007, 2008 and 2009. The great uncertainty stems from one simple fact: No one fully understands the underlying physics of the sunspot cycle. Modern technology cannot, predict the Behavior of sunspot cycle. 3- The length of cycles 20, 21, 22, 23 and its amplitudes are like that the first 4 cycles of the maunder minimum. 4-There are a good correlation between the Solar activity changes , and the global Palaeoclimate changes Contemporary solar activities are so weak and hence are expected to cause global cooling. Prevalent global warming, caused by building-up of green- house gases in the atmosphere, seems to exceed this solar effect.

  29. THANK YOU

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