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TELUS 2011 Targets investor conference call. Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer December 14, 2010. TELUS forward looking statements.
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TELUS 2011 Targets investor conference call Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer December 14, 2010
TELUS forward looking statements Today's presentation and answers to questions contain statements about expected future events and financial and operating performance of TELUS that are forward-looking. By their nature, forward-looking statements require the Company to make assumptions and predictions and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. There is significant risk that the forward-looking statements will not prove to be accurate. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements as a number of factors could cause actual future performance and events to differ materially from that expressed in the forward-looking statements. Accordingly our comments are subject to the disclaimer and qualified by the assumptions (including assumptions for 2010 guidance and 2011 targets), qualifications and risk factors referred to in the Management’s discussion and analysis in the 2009 annual report and in the 2010 first, second and third quarter reports, in this presentation and in the 2011 Targets news release dated December 14, 2010. Except as required by law, TELUS disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise forward-looking statements, and reserves the right to change, at any time at its sole discretion, its current practice of updating annual targets and guidance. See Key Assumptions and Forward Looking Statements in TELUS’ 2011 Targets news release dated December 14, 2010.
Agenda 3 • 2010 guidance • Voluntary pension contribution • 2011 targets and assumptions • Summary • Questions and answers
2010 wireless and wireline guidance 4 • 2010 guidance per Canadian GAAP 2010 segmented guidance remains unchanged
2010 consolidated guidance 5 • Pro-forma EPS per IFRS higher by 5 cents as of Q3-10 YTD 2010 consolidated guidance remains unchanged
Financial policy guidelines • Net debt to EBITDA of 1.5 to 2.0 times • Maintain credit ratings in range of BBB+ to A- or equivalent • Dividend payout ratio of 55 to 65% of sustainable net earnings on a prospective basis Consistent long-term financial policy guidelines
Balancing the interests of equity and debt holders • Over last 12-months TELUS successfully issued two separate C$1 billion 5.05% 10-year notes • Benefits include reduced refinancing risk, staggered debt maturity profile and interest expense savings (~5% vs. 8.5%) • Two dividend increases in 2010 to $2.10 annually ($0.525 quarterly) • Reflects 10.5% increase over first half 2010 dividend payments • Changing dividend reinvestment program to open market purchases at full price • Will no longer offer 3% discount from average market price • Changes effective March 1, 2011 Reduced financing costs contributing to growth in FCF and dividends
Voluntary pension contribution early 2011 8 • Strong recovery in pension fund asset values in 2009-10 has been offset by lower discount rate to value pension liabilities • TELUS intends to make $200M of one-time voluntary pension contributions to those plans in deficit in early 2011 • Aggregate funded position to approx 97% on a solvency basis at year-end 2010 • Contribution is accretive to 2011E EBITDA and EPS • Pension expense reduction of approx $13M • Cash taxes reduced by approx $57M as pension contributions are tax deductible • Funded with low cost commercial paper issuance • Returns in plan are tax sheltered Estimated 97% TELUS pension funding position
2011 targets and assumptions
Defined benefit pension assumptions 10 * Final 2011E pension assumptions to be set in 2011 Expected pension funding increase in 2011 includes voluntary contribution of $200M
2011 wireless revenue target ($M) 11 5,200 to 5,350 4,950 to 5,100 • Wireless industry penetration of Cdn population to increase by 4.5 - 5.0% • Wireless industry subscriber growth to be stimulated by increased competition and emergence of tablet devices • Continued TELUS domestic voice ARPU erosion offset by data and roaming ARPU growth 2011E 2010E Increase of 3.5 to 6.5% from subscriber and data revenue growth
2011 wireless EBITDA target ($M) 12 2,150 to 2,250 • EBITDA growth supported by increased revenue • Acquisition and retention expenses to increase to support larger subscriber base and smartphone upgrades 2,000 to 2,050 2011E 2010E Improving wireless EBITDA growth of between 6 to 11%
2011 wireline revenue target ($M) 13 4,750 to 4,850 4,725 to 4,875 • Consistent with competitive environment, assumed continuation of downward re-pricing of legacy services • Continued wireline broadband expansion and upgrades supporting Optik TV and high speed Internet subscriber growth • TELUS TV and high speed Internet to offset continued erosion in access lines 2010E 2011E Ranges imply relatively flat revenue with data revenue growth offset by local and LD declines
2011 wireline EBITDA target ($M) 14 • A reduction in legacy revenues offset by lower margin growth services • New services have lower margins than legacy services • EBITDA positively impacted by: • Improved profitability in large enterprise deals • Incremental efficiency savings of $75 million in 2011 1,525 to 1,625 1,575 to 1,675 2010E 2011E EBITDA flat to down 6% due to continued legacy revenue declines and short-term dilutive effect from TELUS TV loading
2011 consolidated targets ($M) 15 Revenue EBITDA 9,925 to 10,225 9,700 to 9,950 3,675 to 3,875 3,600 to 3,700 2010E 2011E 2011E 2010E Revenue growth of 1 to 4% and EBITDA growth of 1 to 6% driven by wireless
2011 EPS basic ($) 16 3.50 to 3.90 • EPS benefits from a decrease in financing costs • Statutory tax rate assumption down 2 pts to 26.5 - 27.5% 3.10 to 3.30 2011E 2010E EPS growth of 9 to 22% driven by EBITDA growth and lower financing costs
2011 consolidated capex target ($M) 17 2,103 approx 1,700 approx 1,700 1,859 1,770 2007 20081 2009 2010E 2011E 1 Excludes $882M in AWS spectrum 2011 capex expected to be flat compared to 2010
Free cash flow ($M) 18 AWS spectrum 1,388 1,045 to 1,245 1,243 930 to 1,030 500 361 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E* • Cash tax payments in 2011 between $130 to 180M due to lower installments ($300 to 350M in 2010E) * Reflects IFRS. Prior years reflect CDN GAAP but under IFRS impact would be insignificant. See appendix for additional detail. 2011 cash flow growth of 7 to 27% supported by lower cash taxes and interest costs
2011 targets summary 19 • Consolidated revenue growth of up to 4% driven by wireless • Consolidated EBITDA growth up to 6% due to wireless revenue growth • Stable capex to support investments in wireless and wireline broadband networks • Double digit EPS and free cash flow growth In 2011, TELUS will continue to leverage investments made in broadband to drive innovative solutions for our customers
Questions? investor relations 1-800-667-4871 telus.com ir@telus.com
Appendix – definitions 21 • Percentage increases calculated from 2011 ranges to mid-point of 2010 ranges • EBITDA: earnings, after restructuring costs, before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (2010 & prior years) • Capital intensity: capex divided by total revenue • Cash flow: EBITDA less capex • Free cash flow: EBITDA, adding Restructuring and workforce reduction costs, net employee defined benefit plans expense, cash interest received and excess of share compensation expense over share compensation payments, subtracting cash interest paid, cash taxes, capital expenditures, cash restructuring payments, employer contributions to employee defined benefit plans, and cash related to Other expenses such as charitable donations and securitization fees • Cost of retention (COR): total costs to retain existing subscribers, often presented as a percentage of network revenue TELUS definitions for non-GAAP measures
Appendix – 2011E free cash flow 22 2011E IFRS ($M) EBITDA $3,675 to 3,875 ~(1,700) Capex ~(375) Net cash interest (130) to (180) Net cash tax payment1 ~(60) Other2 1,385 to 1,585 Free Cash Flow Cash pension contribution (including DB recovery) ~(340) Free Cash Flow3 (incl. cash pension contribution) 1,045 to 1,245 1 Midpoint used to calculate free cash flow range 2 Includes restructuring payments (net of expense), and share based compensation (net of expense) 3 Represents FCF before dividends paid of approximately $675M in 2011, deferral account drawdowns, other changes in working capital, acquisitions, etc.