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Nuclear Power for Remote Alaska Locations

Nuclear Power for Remote Alaska Locations. AAEP Lunch 19 October 2005 Steve Colt UAA Institute of Social and Economic Research. Overview. Context Galena study framework Galena results Extension to other communities Extension to mine sites Economic considerations going forward.

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Nuclear Power for Remote Alaska Locations

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  1. Nuclear Power forRemote Alaska Locations AAEP Lunch 19 October 2005 Steve Colt UAA Institute of Social and Economic Research

  2. Overview • Context • Galena study framework • Galena results • Extension to other communities • Extension to mine sites • Economic considerations going forward

  3. Evolution of Conversion Devices Source: Smil 1994

  4. Changing Mix of U.S. Primary Energy “Sources” Circa 1992

  5. Turning to Alaska—

  6. Primary energy consumption per Alaskanbarrels oil per person per year

  7. Final energy consumption per Alaskanbarrels oil per person per year

  8. Electricity Cost per kWh

  9. Potential Requirements of Large Mine • Donlin Creek Example: 60 MW average load = 526 million kWh per yr = 35 million gallons of diesel @15kWh/gal = 700,000 drums • Plus rolling stock energy needs……

  10. Galena Electric Power Study • Requested by City of Galena • Funded by DOE Arctic Energy Office • Consider all reasonable options for meeting electric power needs – utility perspective • Multidisciplinary study team: • Bob Chaney, SAIC • Ron Johnson, Richard Weiss, UAF engineering • Steve Colt, UAA/ISER, economics • Greg White, INEEL, environmental /permitting

  11. Galena Study Framework • Compare total system cost to City over 30 yrs @ 4% real discount rate • Express results as $/kWh cost of service • Focus on electric utility needs: • 1.8 MW peak • 11,000 MWh per yr • Consider other uses of power:

  12. Galena: Current Situation

  13. Galena Assumptions: Diesel • Efficiency 14 kWh/gal (15 for new) • Diesel Price: • Low = $1.50 + 0% real/yr • High = $2.15 + 2% real/yr • Delivery to homes: add $.75/gal • Diesel Capital: $400/ kW

  14. Galena Assumptions: Coal

  15. 4S Reactor Core Center SA: Ultimate shutdown rod (neutron absorber as back up) Fuel material: U-Zr (metallic) Coolant material: sodium Core lifetime: 30 years Core height: 2.5 m (50MWe) 2.0m (10MWe) Core diameter: 1.20m (50MWe) 0.87m (10MWe) Fuel subassemblies (18 SAs) Reflectors are moving upward and surrounding the core slowly(*) in order to compensate the reactivity loss during 30 years burn-up. If an accident occurred, reflector would fall down to make core subcritical. Reactivity temperature coefficient: negative (*)average velocity: 1mm/week approximately

  16. Galena Assumptions: Nuclear

  17. Galena Results: Diesel

  18. Galena Results: Nuclear

  19. Galena Results: Avoided CO2 Avoided diesel fuel: 733,000 gallons (utility electricity) + 220,000 gallons (residential heating) + 471,000 gallons (air station heating) = 1.4 million gallons per yr (in 2010) X 10 kg CO2/gallon = 14,245 tons CO2/yr @ $9.33/ton (current EU spot price) = $133,000 /yr = 9 cents per gallon

  20. Excess Power from 10 MW output

  21. Hydrogen – Basic Considerations • H2 is energy carrier, not energy source • Density: Liquid - 0.071kg/l or 0.59 lb/gal – about the same as styrofoam • Energy Content: 30,000 BTU/gal – 1/5 that of diesel • Best form of storage appears to be as a liquid. Others under development include hydrates and salts.

  22. Hydrogen: Cost to Produce • Size: 1 MW(e) input; 404,000 gal out • Capital: H2 generator: $1.5 million H2 liquefier: $2.0 million Storage tanks: $0.95 million N liquefier: $0.7 million Filling Stn, other: $1.0 million • Total Capital: $6.2 million • Total O&M: $62,000+ per yr

  23. Hydrogen: Cost to Transport • 500,000 gal H2 = 29 barge trips with one 17,000 gal cryogenic tank @$7,800 per trip = $447,000 = $0.92/gal • ~=$4.00 per gallon of diesel on a Btu basis.

  24. Galena: Hydrogen Enterprise • To serve city, school, and military vehicles • Replace 90,000 gal gasoline with 400,000 gal liquid H2

  25. Simple Extension I: Bethel • Load: • 41.2 MWh + 1%/yr • 6.7 MW peak • Nuclear Labor: • 8 operators + 20 security • Misc O&M: • $2 million (viz $3.5 million Toshiba 50 MW)

  26. Nuclear replaces electricity,not heat

  27. Simple Extension I: Results • NPV busbar cost excluding nuclear capital: • Diesel: $113 - $181 million depending on fuel price • Nuclear: $69 million • Therefore, breakeven nuclear capital cost for 10 MW is $43 million - $112 million • (compare to Toshiba est. $125 million for 50 MW)

  28. Simple Extension II: Donlin Creek • Load: • 50+ MW at all times • 438,300 MWh per yr (!) • Nuclear Labor: • 8 operators + 20 security • 25% remote site wage premium • Misc O&M: • $3.5 million (= Toshiba 50 MW estimate) • Diesel cost: $1.50 and flat

  29. Results: Donlin

  30. Looking Ahead • Economics of nuclear depend on: • Energy Requirements • Load shape (flat is best!) • Economics of transmission: • Very poor if serving small places • Excellent if serving a large load • Reliability concerns are real, • But, 75+% of total diesel cost is FUEL…

  31. Looking Ahead….. • On-site fabrication required for off-river sites • Waste management • Security / staffing • NRC process is just beginning

  32. Further Information • Galena Electric Power: a Situational Analysis. available at http://www.iser.uaa.alaska.edu/Publications/Galena_power_final.pdf • Alaska Electric Power Statistics (with Alaska Energy Balance) 1960-2001 by Scott Goldsmith, November 2003. http://www.iser.uaa.alaska.edu/Publications/akelectricpowerfinal.pdf • BP Statistical Review of World Energy. 2004.www.bp.com/worldenergy • Hansen, James. Defusing the Global Time Bomb. Scientific American, February 2004. Pp. 68-77. • Smil, Vaclav. 1994 Energy in World History. Westview. • Smil, Vaclav. 2003. Energy at the Crossroads. MIT Press.

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