Final Lecture

1. Final Lecture This is the final lecture for the Semester We will be taking a brief look into the future - • and reviewing the Unit • and looking at some examination aspects

2. Future Directions And what are some possible future moves in Technology ?

3. Future Directions LOGICALPHYSICAL Translation Model User’s World Computer’s World Human Languages Physical Structures

4. Future Directions LOGICALBusiness Rules and Definitions Presentation Data Access Layer Layer Different Client Server Different User Runtime Runtime Database Interfaces Modules Modules Interfaces Client Hardware Server Hardware PHYSICAL

5. Future Directions • Two major components - software and hardware Term commonly used - price/performance ratio • Gradual substitution of hardware for software - the effort(cost) of producing efficient software is frequently not now justified in terms of throughput • 3rd Generation languages - 4th Generation languages - One of the most significant differences is the Data Dictionary - ‘Intelligence’ aspects • Developing technology allows for separation of logical from physical

6. Future Directions • Replacement of software by hardware Can apply to Interfacing of X to Y (a Word Document into PowerPoint) • And multi functional keyboards • Virtual Machines and Virtual environments • Virtual and Shared memory • Intelligent Application Software - with advanced statistical and probability built in functions

7. Future Directions • Wider bandwidths for communications - E-Commerce, E-Business • Expansion of Electronic Commerce • More advances in Optical storage devices • Higher chip speeds - 4000MHz, 6000MHz ?(4GHz, 6GHz) • MPP or Massively Parallel Processing, Cluster Processing • Voice controlled processes

8. Future Directions • and perhaps we will see some attention given to • recovery from resource clashes (stalling) on modern Personal Computers e.g. Pentium 4 and XP such as ; a continuous logging device automatic restart (intelligent software) automatic log control - release check points transaction logging error detection logging self diagnostics

9. Future Directions • Disk Technology : Performance (access speeds) improved by: Memory chips type of CPU chip or perhaps chips more memory data caching hard coded compression routines used ‘elevator seek routines’ - small programs which examine the disk access queue and reorganise it -- speed improvement (also look ahead functions) - - sometimes known as read ahead and write ahead intent • Greater capacity, faster and ‘microsize’ storage devices

10. Future Directions • RAID technology - Redundant arrays of Inexpensive Disks. Provides fault tolerance, and also improves access speeds by using data spread arrays • Higher levels of Fault Tolerance - Redundancy • These techniques remove the necessity for programmer, system designer/administrator ‘tuning’

11. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 A typical RAID unit - note the 7 disks

12. Future Directions • Disk Drives : Caching makes large memory allocations unnecessary Compression/Decompression makes program handling unnecessary Data placement capabilities (horizontal and vertical partitioning) become irrelevant when RAID technology is used Overall effect: Database software and user effort in optimising database access will be minimised/eliminated User benefit : - faster access, less management (people) effort

13. Future Directions Architecture for larger data warehouses : Storage Area Network (SAN) This effectively merges all of the diskdrives off mainframes and servers into a single location. The benefits ? High performance disk access High performance transfers between applications High performance direct transfer from disk to disk Applications do not need to know where data is located (openness)

14. Future Directions External LAN Server Server Server Server Adapter Adapter Adapter Adapter Switch Switch Bridge Disk Array Disk Array Disk Array Tape Library

15. Future Directions A replacement for Silicon ? Gallium Arsenide : Faster movement of electronic impulses Optical transmissions are possible (not so with silicon) Higher temperature tolerance. Generate less heat Biotechnology ? Artificial growth of molecules as conductors Vacuum tube chip farms ? Electrons travel faster in a vacuum as opposed to air. Possible very low heat levels.

16. Future Directions • Intel announced (December 2001) semiconductor design which will help in continuing doubling the performance of microchips every 18 to 24 months until the end of the decade (2009, 2010 ?) • This development is expected to decrease power requirements, and also power leakage • Ability to mass produce microchips with 1,000,000,000 (109) transistors by 2007 • 10 times faster data switching than in 2002 - no increase in power consumption

17. Future Directions • Nanotechnology - smaller, faster, more efficient, mobile (remember the article on RFIDs ?) • Mobile services will continue to be come • smaller • faster • and embedded in many objects we touch • They will enable • real-time interaction with customers • participation in collaborative projects • access to a global network of intelligence • And the distinction between communication and computing will become imprecise

18. Future Directions • Molecular Memory (there is an article in your notes) • A means of ‘cramming’ more data into a memory cell • Molecular wires - nanotechnology • Molecular wires - parcels of charge around a molecule • A grid of wires, each about 2 nanometres in diameter • A nanometre is one millionth of a millimetre (roughly 10 carbon atoms long)

19. Holographic Memory - What’s That ? • It could be the replacement for hard disks • Devices which use light (photo-optic) to store and read data • Compact disks (CD) - 783 megabytes (soon  1.3 GB) • DVD (Digital Versatile Disks) - 15.9 Gigabytes • Data is stored as bits (binary digits) - and on the surface of the recording media

20. Holographic Memory • New optical storage research is focused on 3D storage - to use the volume of the storage media - not just the surface area. • Possibility of storing a terabyte (212 bytes) of data in a sugar-cube-size crystal - 1,000 gigabytes • The data on 1,000 CDs could fit onto a holographic memory system • Current PC hard disk drives hold about 80/120 Gigabytes - which is considerably smaller capacity that 1,000 Gigabytes • Have you seen any advertising for an HDSS (desktop holographic storage system) • Data transfer rate at 40 Megabytes per second

21. Linux ? • A possible replacement for Microsoft ? • Cheaper, free downloads • No server license fees, client accessing licences • Cost effectiveness ? Less demanding on hardware platform • Sound base for database applications - DB2, Oracle • Business software - competitor to Office nnnn?

22. Future Directions • We will see much development in the use of the World Wide Web and Internet resources • Not only as an advertising or data resource, but as • a viable and secure means of transacting international business • a teaching mechanism • a communications facility with auto-translate capabilities • a global interlink of finance, banking, markets, social, cultural, and geographic data

23. Future Directions • Expanded use of Portals - more ‘work’ performed by the software to support users • Non structured data bases - more powerful construction, linking, and access tools. (also maintenance) • Higher levels of security and reliability • Multi dimensional access and retrieval tools

24. Future Directions • More intelligent and interactive displays - visualisation • More advanced, clearer, less volume, more focussed • Cube displays, multi dimension displays of data (outputs) • ‘Intelligent’ information • More accurate, faster and easier to understand and assess

25. Future Directions Data Mining 1. A marketing company using historical response data to build models to predict who will respond to a direct mail or telephone solicitation is using ‘data mining’ 2. A manufacturer analysing sensor data to isolate conditions which lead to unplanned production stoppages is using ‘data mining’.

26. Future Directions 3. A Government agency which sifts through records of financial transactions looking for patterns which could indicate money laundering or drug trading is ‘mining data’ looking for evidence of criminal activity. 4. A computer based search through a document archive (such as the World Wide Web) for material on a specific topic is another example of ‘data mining’. Were you ‘data mining’ in Assignment 1 ?

27. Future Directions The concept of ‘mining’ data to produce important information or patterns could and should be of benefit to organisations. Data mining is useful in exploratory analysis scenarios (data = structured data and unstructured text)

28. Future Directions It’s important to understand what data mining is NOT Once a pattern has been established by data mining, it is a known or established pattern. Analyses on known patterns are not data mining Techniques which require implementation of rules, predefined training examples, automated supervised learning are not examples of data mining.

29. Future Directions Monitoring involves ‘online pattern matching operations’. Financial markets, air traffic control, road traffic, credit card transactions, medical billing are classic cases of ‘monitoring’ - the criteria for such monitoring need to be established

30. Future Directions The ‘technical’ content of Data Mining has 3 well defined areas • Algorithms and Techniques • Data • Modelling practices

31. Future Directions The 3 threads or antecedents of Data Mining are • Machine learning • Statistics • Decision Support

32. Some Questions • Is Industry really obtaining a return on its investments in Information Technology ? • Or, is Industry squandering investments which do not return an ‘acceptable’ rate of return ? • Is the continual development of new hardware, new software and new demands counter productive ? • Is the Industry ‘Market Led’ or ’Business Requirement’ Led ?

33. An Oracle Prediction This is where and how you will be involved : The historical separation between business and technology in organisations have begin to thaw. Business users themselves will, and must, play a greater role in shaping the applications they need for these new e-businesses - including the B2B environments. Knowledge Management Competitive Business Intelligence

34. Unit Outline

35. CSE1720 - Unit Outline • Introduction, Objectives, Practical uses and Users of Computing • Components of a Computer System. Purpose of Computer Hardware and Software • Combination of Hardware, Software, People Skills, Controls --- > System • Input Equipment - Objectives, Variety, Applications • Output Equipment - Objectives, Variety, Applications

36. CSE1720 - Unit Outline • Window 2000/XP Operating Systems • Registry • Hardware control • Process control • User control • Domains • which really means more ‘software intelligence’ • and computer based monitoring and response

37. CSE1720 - Unit Outline • The Internet and the World Wide Web • Web sites/Home pages • Developing a Web page • Security aspects • E-commerce

38. CSE1720 - Unit Outline • Storage Requirements - High speed, High capacity Memory - Volatile, high speed of access Auxiliary - Stable, high capacity, slower access speeds • Processors - Mainframe, Mini, Micro Some boundaries Configuration capabilities and SuperComputers (Clusters, Massively Parallel Processing, Grid Computing) • Business Software (micro based) - Windows, Excel, Access, Word, PowerPoint - Applications base

39. CSE1720 - Unit Outline • Information Requirements - Information Life Cycle System Development Cycle Project Management Decision Support On line, Interactive, Batch Centralised, Distributed Processing • Communications and Capabilities - Connectivity Internet - Portals • Hardware / Software Selection - User requirements, Data Analysis

40. CSE1720 - Unit Outline • Data security, Recovery, Archiving, Access Security, Access Controls and Privileges • Consumer and Customer focussed applications, including Data Mining • Trends - faster, easier to use, language gap bridges, other forms of data (video, objects, sound, multi media), virtual concepts. ‘hard software and soft hardware’ • ‘Self Developing Applications’

41. CSE1720 - Unit Outline • Some social implications of technology - skills, displacements, reliance, reliability, controls • Ethics • Responsibilities • Safeguards • Knowledge Workers - The Information Age • Knowledge Management and Intelligence

42. CSE1720 - Unit Outline • And ….. • Are we (the users) able to • Take advantage of large, costly and complex systems • Are we able to ‘manage’ these applications • Are we skilled enough in defining what the real current, short term, and long term information requirements are • Do we really obtain a positive benefit • Do we capitalise on investments in Information Technology

43. Well, that’s the end of the ‘formal’ material What about the Examination ?

46. The Examination !!

48. Examination Hints • Make sure of the TIME , DATE and LOCATION • Misreading of the Time, Date or Location, IS NOT accepted for Supplementary or Deferred Examination application. • Make sure you have your I.D. Card

49. Examination Hints • Make sure your bag is on the floor, next to you, and unopened • NO BOOKS, NOTES nor ACTIVE MOBILE PHONES • A Calculator (not a WAP nor Palm Top) may be used. One of the Section B questions requires a calculation.

50. Examination Hints • Listen carefully to the Supervisor’s directions • Use the 10 minutes ‘reading time’ to familiarise yourself with the instructions, layout and questions. • Start writing when advised by the Supervisor - don’t lose marks unnecessarily • Manage your time carefully