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Does the Ocean Matter for Climate Change?

Does the Ocean Matter for Climate Change?. Yes…. Esp. regionally, for sea ice maintenace, & for carbon storage. Ideas & Concepts That Emerged-1. Ocean carries little heat poleward comp. to ocean, but can have big impact on climate via influence on sea ice

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Does the Ocean Matter for Climate Change?

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  1. Does the Ocean Matter for Climate Change? Yes…. Esp. regionally, for sea ice maintenace, & for carbon storage

  2. Ideas & Concepts That Emerged-1 • Ocean carries little heat poleward comp. to ocean, but can have big impact on climate via influence on sea ice • Atmosphere carries 4x mass flux as ocean • Much confusion about what is meant by “THC” & “MOC” • We should come up with new Wikipedia definition • E.g., The N-S flux of water in the ocean driven by wind and surface buoyancy fluxes

  3. Ideas & Concepts That Emerged-2 • AMOC changed substantially and rapidly (decades-centuries) during last ice age • Deep N. Atl. (>2 km) was sluggish (H1, LGM) • Intermediate water (< 2 km) flux was high • Gulf Stream transport was diminished (~30%) • Little evidence--from models or observations--that AMOC can change substantially in modern climate • No substantial AMOC trend in last 15 years • Sea ice can alter the global climate rapidly and significantly • What is the obsession with “hosing” experiments?

  4. Ideas & Concepts That Emerged-3 • The Gulf Stream has a strong local impact on the atmosphere • 20th century T trend looks more like CO2 trend once volcanoes, ENSO, artefacts, COWL, etc. are rmvd. • N. AMOC better described as a switch (betw. NAC & Subtropical gyre) than a conveyor belt • Coupled (IPCC) OAGCMs do a poor job with the ACC / Southern Ocean • Problematic for carbon fluxes, atmos. CO2 , global warming, ocean acidification, etc. • Introduction of active carbon cycle in next gen. AOGCMs fraught with hazards

  5. Ideas & Concepts That Emerged-4 • Sea ice can link N. Atl. to tropics & monsoon regions • Rapid sea ice formation by katabatic winds off FS ice sheet may be key to D-O events • Climate science must be done with hierarchy of models & observations

  6. Big Questions Remain… 1. Glacial Cycles and Carbon Dioxide 2 What controls the mean state of the atmosphere-ocean-(land) system in the tropics? 3. Why is the climatological ocean circulation (THC/MOC…) the way it is? relative roles of wind stress and bouyancy production Each is important for understanding natural climate variability, and response to forcing -- large (geometry/solar) and small (co2)

  7. We matter! By LuAnne & Jessica

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